Ignore the faux-outrage from Remainers on UK stance over NI protocol. EU threatened to hamper & blockade GB=>NI trade. Does anyone really believe EU’s threats are not a provocation to NI unionists & so a threat to peace? /1
Does anyone seriously believe EU’s threats to blockade GB-NI trade are in the spirit of WA / NI protocol & seeking a mutually beneficial deal? EU are not keeping the promises made in NI protocol. /2
Ignore the faux-outrage. UK Govt remains committed to implementing the NI protocol. But an implementation which “respects that NI is an integral part of the UK & UK customs territory”. /3
UK Govt described it’s approach for a light-touch implementation of NI protocol back in May 2020. None of this is news or a surprise to the EU. /4
UK Govt posted “moving goods under NI protocol” in Aug 2020, introducing the “Trader Support Service” to deal directly w/ customs & minimise info from traders (much already found in VAT records / shipping manifests). /5
UK goods standards will remain identical to EU’s on 1.1.21. Since UK officials will check goods in both GB & NI, UK officials at Irish Sea will only need to check goods where there is GB/NI divergence – likely to remain minimal. /6
The fact that UK SPS stds will remain identical to EU’s on 1.1.21, gives lie to Barnier’s excuse as to why EU will refuse standard 3rd country recognition of UK establishments (farms etc). As called out by Lord Frost. /7
EU gives standard 3rd country recognition of establishments to countries round the world w/o any requirement for regulatory alignment. US meat & poultry farms have such recognition. EU’s stance to GB establishments is indefensible. /8
Cut to the chase. EU is trying to blackmail UK via Irish Sea border in order to force UK to accept EU’s terms on LPF, State Aid & fish. UK (rightly) is having none of it and will implement a light-touch NI protocol with or without EU’s co-operation or FTA. /9
EU’s hypocrisy on State Aid is skewered by Yanis Varoufakis. EU have essentially abandoned the State Aid rules that they are trying to impose on UK. /10
Cut to the chase. EU will reluctantly agree to LPF & State Aid judged on outcomes, i.e. demonstration of unfair competition, not alignment to EU rules. Binding Arbitration via independent panel, not ECJ. /11
UK will agree standard non-regression clause on envt/labour (as per EU-Canada). UK will include services in State Aid, if EU agree MRA proff. Qualifications + standard 3rd country equivalence decisions (Fin svcs, Data Protection). /12
In short, I now see a deal as far more likely. EU has everything to lose from No Deal. UK will operate light-touch Irish Sea border, EU will have a gaping hole in its precious SM legal order. No deal means no LPF constraint on UK & no fisheries access for EU. /13
Standard 3rd country FTA w/ MRAs on conformity assessment, SPS equivalence, trusted trader + agreements on customs co-op & mkt surveillance will enable light-touch NI protocol on firm legal basis. Some LPF/Fish is better than none for EU. /14
Game, set & match to Frost. Now all that is needed is some theatre to allow EU to pretend they won a “victory” in getting a deal. /end

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More from @paulrey99

16 Aug
@PlainVa86760081 @semperfidem2004 It has been an inescapable truth since Feb, (when Covid got a foothold in the UK population), that the only escape from this crisis is herd immunity. Lockdown simply delays the virus, but also delays herd immunity, at huge cost to society. /1
@PlainVa86760081 @semperfidem2004 Some put their hope in a vaccine. But even if we get a vaccine that is safe (far from a given), it is projected to have at best 50% effectiveness. Not enough to reach herd immunity. /2
@PlainVa86760081 @semperfidem2004 Assuming we ever get a safe vaccine, we are still talking about a long time to go. Extending Lockdown, w/ its huge cost in terms of liberty, economy & non-Covid deaths arising from Lockdown is a losing strategy. /3 telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/07/2…
Read 8 tweets
16 May
If EU wants to abandon a £100bn trade in goods surplus w/ it's largest export market (UK), because it insists on EU law + ECJ as basis of a Level Playing Field, that's their prerogative. But drop the claims that EU is rational or simply "defending it's interests". /1
It's understandable that EU are worried about losing their share of North Sea fishing rights. But it is forlorn hope to expect UK to continue CFP status quo. EU can have tapered fishing access or no g'tees at (No Deal). Where's the EU rationale ? /2
EU blocking straightforward MRA on conformity assessment & SPS equivalence is patently absurd. It has such agreements w/ many 3rd countries w/o FTA's (e.g. Aus, NZ, USA etc). It breaches WTO TBT & SPS agreements. Long term it diminishes EU's trade surplus w/ UK. Irrational. /3
Read 5 tweets
22 Mar
@FabianZuleeg You haven't "responded" at all. You've just asserted w/o explanation and smeared anyone who disagrees w/ you, all the while refusing to answer a single question. So I'll answer for you.
@FabianZuleeg Your honest answer to my question below is No - you don't think EU will or should move on these 3 key sticking points. EU & acolytes like you continue to blindly assume UK will cave at some point, esp if point of UK departure from SM/CU can be delayed.
@FabianZuleeg Your answer to below is also No - you don't believe delaying UK departure from SM/CU by 3 months makes any material difference, because you still (wrongly) believe it will be a catastrophe leaving at any time & still want UK in an SM/CU assoc mem'ship.
Read 13 tweets
14 Feb
THREAD. EU state aid rules do NOT apply to GB via the NI protocol. tl;dr = @GeorgePeretzQC is wrong. =>
@GeorgePeretzQC NI protocol means a part of the UK (NI) is inside SM & CU for goods & elec, while GB is “3rd country” status outside SM/CU. UK State aid provides investment/funding to all parts of UK (incl NI). This complicates how the EU will defend itself against “unfair” UK state aid. /1
@GeorgePeretzQC EU has no say or control over state aid in a 3rd country. Where such aid provides unfair competition & distorts trade, EU uses trade defence measures, e.g. anti-dumping or countervailing duties, applied to EU imports in addition to normal tariffs (e.g. Chinese steel). /2
Read 19 tweets
23 Jan
This article by @pmdfoster has garnered a lot of attention. Apparently, EU may refuse to agree standard 3rd country MRAs (Mutual recognition agreements) on conformity assessment etc w/ UK. This seems extreme and warrants closer examination /1
@pmdfoster A response by @MissVHewson states EU refusing UK an MRA on conformity assessment would: “violate the spirit of WTO rules” & “is not as serious as it might seem” (UK manufacturers & assessment bodies have prepped for No Deal). /2
@pmdfoster @MissVHewson EU would be contradicting commitments via WTO TBT agreement (art 6), the PD & UKTF 2020 slides. EU wld be discriminating against UK when MRAs are embedded in other EU FTAs & also agreed outside FTAs ( see ec.europa.eu/growth/single-… ) /3
Read 10 tweets
22 Jan
I’ve been away from twitter for a bit. But I note UK Media/Political bubble’s narrative on Brexit is still laughably wrong. THREAD =>
The most credible Brexit source I’ve seen is @piris_jc .. J C Piris (formerly head of EU legal services). His take on UK-EU FTA and “alignment” seems right. /1
@piris_jc A basic trade deal by end 2020 to avoid WTO. No tariffs / quotas. No SM / CJEU. No extension to transition. Foreign policy, security/defence, judicial to be sorted 2021 onwards. /2
Read 10 tweets

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