jonstokes.(eth|com) Profile picture
Sep 13, 2020 17 tweets 5 min read Read on X
You: Abolish grocery stores.

Me: Maybe we could just reform them? Make them more sustainable & healthy?

You: No , get rid of them & let other institutions, like CSA, Farmers Markets, & local butchers take that work.

Me: Ok but what if I need milk on short notice?...
You: Do the reading. Here is a link dump. It took me years to understand that this is the only way. Catch up.

Me: ok, but you’re the expert here. Walk me through the steps of milk acquisition in your groceryless world. I want to understand how this works...
You: I won’t participate in bad faith thought exercises w/ someone who won’t do the work.

Me: Ok. Then I wont participate in grocery abolition.

You: Fascist! Your day’s coming.

Me: You just assigned me ~2 yrs of (uncompensated) study, then threatened me for asking questions!
I don’t know why people don’t get that “this is an emergency, so I don’t have time to explain this to you; you either fall in line or suffer the consequences” is the essence of authoritarianism.

It’s like they went to the Jack Bauer School of Social Justice.
Not really the point of this particular thread tho. I’ve asked to be walked through the nuts & bolts aftermath of a rape — from reporting, to apprehending the suspect, to justice — and cannot get even an attempt at an answer.
I have a detailed mental model of how it will go when the police are done away with, & it's some mix of The Purge & paying protection money to various armed gangs. So I think it's reasonable to ask you, a person who has "done the reading", to show me your post-police mental model
Like, in the rape example, in my brain a no-police scenario involves the victim going out of pocket to hire a PI, then hiring The Pinkertons to round him up, & then the victim's male relatives digging a 6ft hole in the woods. I can describe it b/c I saw 4 movies & 12 TV shows.
But I have never seen the no-police rape justice scenario on a screen that involves "community restorative justice" or whatever Amish or indigenous setup your Rolling Stone listicle has in it. So you're gonna have to spell that out for me in order for me to get my mind around it.
No I think it's an excellent example for precisely this reason. You can't say "they're bad at it, so we will end them & replace them with... some TBD thing that I refuse to give details of." I'm gonna have to insist you fill in TBD w/ something less bad.
Because if you can't give me a concrete, nuts-and-bolts, just-so story of the mechanics of improving something that everyone agrees the police are terrible at, then you just declined to swing at the softball pitch. Why should I imagine you can hit a fastball?
So let's start with you explaining to me a better mechanism for bringing rapists to justice, & what that looks like. That should be easy, given that the police are so bad at it. If you can't do the easy one, then I suspect you're conning me about being able to fix all the things.
This is the way it is at every turn w/ police abolitionists.

You: Police rarely solve thefts.

Me: Yeah I hear you! So what's YOUR superior plan for getting me my stuff back when somebody steals it. I'm excited for the details!

You: Privilege...do the reading... argle bargle
No disagreement! The current system is TERRIBLE! We need a better system, but we do need /a/ system. It can't be "no system at all for a while until we cobble together something else." That doesn't work for me, & I get a say in this.
I dunno about that, bro. This one tweet of yours is a pretty spectacular(albeit unintentional) summary/confirmation of my entire thread, so you may be able walk me through it on here 🤣
I bet if I asked some of the police abolitionists “how would the Fremen of Arrakis get justice for a rape victim” they’d have no problem supplying many colorful details. But ask how a post-police US would do it, well it’s too much to explain & you just have to read all the books.
Me: How would a post-police US bring a rapist to justice?

You: That question is a fascism.

Me: Ok then. How would they bring a rapist to justice in Wakanda?

You: I’ve been waiting my whole life to do a thread on this. You better sit down and get comfortable...
Since this thread has gotten a lot of attention, I wanted to go ahead & finish it w/ a concrete example of what I'm talking about. This viral FB post & the comments, plus me trying to engage around it on FB, is partly what inspired this thread. facebook.com/angryblackhoem…

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More from @jonst0kes

Aug 6
I had forgotten that this happened in MN. Wow. I recall quite clearly not just being outraged by this, but being told that it was not happening and was "disinformation."
There was also the church closures, which many churches both Catholic and Protestant came together to actively resist. They both took Walz to court and they opened in defiance of orders. Letters like this were sent and can be found via Google. Image
Walz presided over every single COVID thing that the many who are still mad at COVID are still mad about. You can put lockdowns, riots and looting, race-based vaccine allotments, mask mandates, vaccination requirements, school closures, church closures -- the works -- on him.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 3
There's no sugar-coating this so I'll give it to you straight:
1. We don't have a competitive domestic chip industry & we won't have it in the next 10yrs
2. China will take 🇹🇼 & control TSMC
3. We will keep buying chips from TSMC w/ CCP backdoors in them, & pretend it's fine.
The idea that we're going to just man up & re-shore leading-edge chipmaking is a fairy tale. The problems that got us here are all part of the larger off-shoring of US manufacturing over the last 30yrs, & will not be solved by a few tariffs & some billions for Intel.
We need a complete & total reboot of all US industrial policy, with chipmaking as one part of that bigger effort. But even if we can get it together to do this, the path to that goes through a long period when CCP has root on our domestic systems & steals or sabotages stuff.
Read 16 tweets
Jul 28
I have been on more than one secret lefty list going back to the 2010's, and I am now in more than one "new right" GC. And the caliber of the discussion on latter is so far above the caliber of discussion on the former, it's shocking.
It's weird for me to ponder this in light of the widely noted (& IMO very real) competency crisis on the right. I think what's happening is that as media & academia have driven out critical thinkers in favor of team players, these folks are finding themselves marooned on "the right".

There are some friends of mine like this who are now functionally on the right but are really committed to not having that label, & others who have just caved & are embracing it.

But either way, this is where the most interesting & enlightened discussions are happening.
The main characteristics of these superior conversations is that one of the main things that's off-limits is accusing someone of a "bad faith" or of a "-phobia."

If you're someone who's on my TL & is tech-forward and is nonetheless currently trying to police The Discourse with accusations of "phobia" or "bad faith" or the like, that's fine you can do that, but you're going to be left out of the most interesting & honest conversations. Your call tho.
Read 7 tweets
May 3, 2023
FYI, gasoline-powered cars still going many years into the apocalypse is one of those details that bugs me as a serious prepper. Gasoline has a shelf-life of ~2yrs, & then only w/ additives & careful storage (usually it's like 6mo). So no you're not driving 5yrs after doomsday.
The way I suspend disbelief on this is to imagine that they've converted all the cars to run on some biofuel & there's a whole biofuel economy that they're just not showing on-screen.
This show actually not in that bad a shape on the gas issue, as you really have to get into Season 9 before you get past the 2yrs post-doomsday mark. If they're really going all-out to preserve it they can maybe plausibly make it.
Read 4 tweets
May 1, 2023
Whether we view AI as a tool (= governed by the norms & practices of engineering) or as an agent (= governed by the norms & practices of HR) will determine the future of the AI safety debate. jonstokes.com/p/ai-safety-is…
I start out by giving some folk conceptions of alignment -- not formal definitions, but the ways different camps practically relate to it: Image
But there's another axis that cuts across the individualist and collectivist understandings of alignment: are you working with a conception of AI as a tool or as an agent. Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 29, 2023
Yeah. I watched “Moment of Contact” last night, a really compelling documentary on the Varginha incident — the Brazilian “Roswell,” basically. Either @jamescfox and his team make the whole thing up & hired actors to lie, or something wild went down. It’s very hard to dismiss.
Similar with the (less good & compelling) documentary “Ariel Phenomenon” about the incident at the school in Africa. You really have to believe that everyone involved is just amazingly committed to some bit, across a couple decades, to dismiss it.
Also, this was my beef with “Grabby Aliens,” which I expressed to Hanson’s coauthor and we had a nice back-and-forth. I was like, “you’re claiming we’ve seen no aliens in our light cone, but I’m not sure… at the very least it seems there’s a meaningful possibility you’re wrong.”
Read 4 tweets

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