jonstokes.(eth|com) Profile picture
Sep 13, 2020 17 tweets 5 min read Read on X
You: Abolish grocery stores.

Me: Maybe we could just reform them? Make them more sustainable & healthy?

You: No , get rid of them & let other institutions, like CSA, Farmers Markets, & local butchers take that work.

Me: Ok but what if I need milk on short notice?...
You: Do the reading. Here is a link dump. It took me years to understand that this is the only way. Catch up.

Me: ok, but you’re the expert here. Walk me through the steps of milk acquisition in your groceryless world. I want to understand how this works...
You: I won’t participate in bad faith thought exercises w/ someone who won’t do the work.

Me: Ok. Then I wont participate in grocery abolition.

You: Fascist! Your day’s coming.

Me: You just assigned me ~2 yrs of (uncompensated) study, then threatened me for asking questions!
I don’t know why people don’t get that “this is an emergency, so I don’t have time to explain this to you; you either fall in line or suffer the consequences” is the essence of authoritarianism.

It’s like they went to the Jack Bauer School of Social Justice.
Not really the point of this particular thread tho. I’ve asked to be walked through the nuts & bolts aftermath of a rape — from reporting, to apprehending the suspect, to justice — and cannot get even an attempt at an answer.
I have a detailed mental model of how it will go when the police are done away with, & it's some mix of The Purge & paying protection money to various armed gangs. So I think it's reasonable to ask you, a person who has "done the reading", to show me your post-police mental model
Like, in the rape example, in my brain a no-police scenario involves the victim going out of pocket to hire a PI, then hiring The Pinkertons to round him up, & then the victim's male relatives digging a 6ft hole in the woods. I can describe it b/c I saw 4 movies & 12 TV shows.
But I have never seen the no-police rape justice scenario on a screen that involves "community restorative justice" or whatever Amish or indigenous setup your Rolling Stone listicle has in it. So you're gonna have to spell that out for me in order for me to get my mind around it.
No I think it's an excellent example for precisely this reason. You can't say "they're bad at it, so we will end them & replace them with... some TBD thing that I refuse to give details of." I'm gonna have to insist you fill in TBD w/ something less bad.
Because if you can't give me a concrete, nuts-and-bolts, just-so story of the mechanics of improving something that everyone agrees the police are terrible at, then you just declined to swing at the softball pitch. Why should I imagine you can hit a fastball?
So let's start with you explaining to me a better mechanism for bringing rapists to justice, & what that looks like. That should be easy, given that the police are so bad at it. If you can't do the easy one, then I suspect you're conning me about being able to fix all the things.
This is the way it is at every turn w/ police abolitionists.

You: Police rarely solve thefts.

Me: Yeah I hear you! So what's YOUR superior plan for getting me my stuff back when somebody steals it. I'm excited for the details!

You: Privilege...do the reading... argle bargle
No disagreement! The current system is TERRIBLE! We need a better system, but we do need /a/ system. It can't be "no system at all for a while until we cobble together something else." That doesn't work for me, & I get a say in this.
I dunno about that, bro. This one tweet of yours is a pretty spectacular(albeit unintentional) summary/confirmation of my entire thread, so you may be able walk me through it on here 🤣
I bet if I asked some of the police abolitionists “how would the Fremen of Arrakis get justice for a rape victim” they’d have no problem supplying many colorful details. But ask how a post-police US would do it, well it’s too much to explain & you just have to read all the books.
Me: How would a post-police US bring a rapist to justice?

You: That question is a fascism.

Me: Ok then. How would they bring a rapist to justice in Wakanda?

You: I’ve been waiting my whole life to do a thread on this. You better sit down and get comfortable...
Since this thread has gotten a lot of attention, I wanted to go ahead & finish it w/ a concrete example of what I'm talking about. This viral FB post & the comments, plus me trying to engage around it on FB, is partly what inspired this thread. facebook.com/angryblackhoem…

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More from @jonst0kes

May 3, 2023
FYI, gasoline-powered cars still going many years into the apocalypse is one of those details that bugs me as a serious prepper. Gasoline has a shelf-life of ~2yrs, & then only w/ additives & careful storage (usually it's like 6mo). So no you're not driving 5yrs after doomsday.
The way I suspend disbelief on this is to imagine that they've converted all the cars to run on some biofuel & there's a whole biofuel economy that they're just not showing on-screen.
This show actually not in that bad a shape on the gas issue, as you really have to get into Season 9 before you get past the 2yrs post-doomsday mark. If they're really going all-out to preserve it they can maybe plausibly make it.
Read 4 tweets
May 1, 2023
Whether we view AI as a tool (= governed by the norms & practices of engineering) or as an agent (= governed by the norms & practices of HR) will determine the future of the AI safety debate. jonstokes.com/p/ai-safety-is…
I start out by giving some folk conceptions of alignment -- not formal definitions, but the ways different camps practically relate to it: Image
But there's another axis that cuts across the individualist and collectivist understandings of alignment: are you working with a conception of AI as a tool or as an agent. Image
Read 7 tweets
Apr 29, 2023
Yeah. I watched “Moment of Contact” last night, a really compelling documentary on the Varginha incident — the Brazilian “Roswell,” basically. Either @jamescfox and his team make the whole thing up & hired actors to lie, or something wild went down. It’s very hard to dismiss.
Similar with the (less good & compelling) documentary “Ariel Phenomenon” about the incident at the school in Africa. You really have to believe that everyone involved is just amazingly committed to some bit, across a couple decades, to dismiss it.
Also, this was my beef with “Grabby Aliens,” which I expressed to Hanson’s coauthor and we had a nice back-and-forth. I was like, “you’re claiming we’ve seen no aliens in our light cone, but I’m not sure… at the very least it seems there’s a meaningful possibility you’re wrong.”
Read 4 tweets
Apr 27, 2023
I'll put these same questions to @HadasKotek, since she just published a blog post that raises them for me all over again.

hkotek.com/blog/gender-bi…

86% of nurses are women. Plz ELI5 why it's a problem that the model is biased to strongly expect nurses to be women.
There are 2 issues here:

Primary: The model's internal correlations reflect gender distribution in the labor force (strongly correlates "nurse" w/ "she").

Secondary: The model's linguistic reasoning is so weak it leans too heavily on those correlations & gives bad responses.
Note that in the tweet where he called me crazy, Narayanan falsely claims the "main issue" in his post was the secondary issue above, i.e. the model is so wedded to its stereotypes it gives wrong answers. No, his post is about the stereotypes. Image
Read 12 tweets
Apr 26, 2023
Question for @random_walker:

Some googling turns up that 40% of lawyers in the US are women. Should the model's internal representation of the world, then, reflect the reality that 60% of lawyers are men, and if not then who decides the ideal world it should instead reflect?
@random_walker This is not a dunk or a gotcha. It's an extremely serious question -- perhaps one of the most serious in the world right now. Should the model reflect a reality that you think is flawed, or should it reflect a specific group's vision of a better world? Because we do have to pick
Related. Again, this is a very very serious question and I have never once gotten an answer from the AI ethics people who complain about bias.
Read 10 tweets
Apr 15, 2023
Deeper I go down the AI/ML rabbit hole & the more all this progresses, the more I'm finding that Platonism is a big unlock for reasoning about what is going on & what the possibilities are.

Maybe this is a "drunk guy looking for his keys under the light pole" thing, given how… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
If you're trying to think about how an LLM-based agent finds a sequence of actions that can do a thing in the world, it's actually best to imagine the agent architecture as a query engine for starting with an initial query (= prompt) that then uses local state to refine a set of… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
This is sense of an agent as a thing that its iterative running an ever more refined set of queries until it uncovers the correct sequence in a space of sequences gets you over the mental hurdle of thinking about a machine that "creates" or "generates new ideas" or whatever. It's… twitter.com/i/web/status/1…
Read 6 tweets

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