Parag Parikh Long Term Equity fund will be introducing 'covered call strategy' in the fund. This can be a game changer for the fund in a market that does not steeply go up or moves up gradually or stays sideways or even falls (1/n)
Options is slightly difficult to explain over twitter, so here’s my video on ‘basics of options’, do subscribe to my channel ☺ (2/n)
How does a cover call work?
When a fund buys a stock, they expect it to go up. But they don’t make returns if the stock stays sideways or falls and is exactly where cover call comes into picture. Let me explain, (3/n)
Lets say PPFAS has invested in RIL @ the current market price of 2315. PPFAS will sell a call option of RIL at 2600 & receive a premium of 10 rupees. Selling a call option @ 2600 means the fund is nt expecting RIL 2 move above 2600 in that month (last Thursday of the month)”(4/n)
Lets see how much profit/loss does the fund make in various possible situations
Situation 1 – RIL closes the month @ 2315
Return – As the stock dint close above 2600, PPFAS will make 10 rupees of profit where as other funds holding RIL will make nothing. PPFAS at advantage(5/n)
(2)-RIL closes @ 2200
Return–The stock dint close above 2600, PPFAS will make 10 rupees of profit. While any other fund holding RIL will make a loss of 2315 – 2200 = 115, PPFAS will loss 115 – 10 = 105 as it has received 10 as premium from the call option. PPFAS at advantage(6/n)
(3)–RIL closes the month @ 2600
Return–As the stock dint close ABOVE 2600, PPFAS will make 10 rupees of profit. While any other fund holding RIL will make a profit of 2600–2315=285, PPFAS will gain 285+10=295 as it has received 10 as premium 4m d call option. PPFAS advantage(7/n)
(4)–RIL closes the month at 2640
Returns-As the stock closed above 2600, PPFAS will loose 30 rupees (2640 – 2600 = 40 but has received 10 as premium so net loss 30), as it was not expecting it to close above 2600. (8/n)
While other fund holding RIL will make a profit of 2640 – 2315 = 325, PPFAS will gain less 325 - 30 = 295. PPFAS at Disadvantage (9/n)
While theoretically people may argue saying writing a call is a risk strategy, covered call (buy the share and then selling the call) has its own advantages. 3 out of 4 probability in favor of PPFAS as explained above. (10/n)
Negatives – 1. NAV may become volatile due to market-to-market impact 2. There can be some opportunity cost loss, if after selling the call option in the interim the fund decides to sell the stock 3. If the fund size increases drastically, options may have an impact cost(11/12)
Overall it’s a win – win in my opinion. (END)
Just to clarify, it is not necessary that the fund will always and at all times use it. They might use it only when they think it is prudent. They are currently only adding this as a provision.
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RBI is getting very active & making sure it is supporting the market much faster than it has in the past
RBI announced 2 things,
- 1,00,000 cr of OMO
- 87,000 cr of USD/INR Swap
Let me explain what it means in this 🧵 (1/4)
Liquidity in the banking sector is under serious stress. On the 4th of March the liquidity deficit was ~20K cr. Liquidity has been deficit because of,
- Tax Outflows (Taking money out from the bank)
- Heavy Selling by FII’s (Taking money back)
- Lower government spending (Not receiving more rupees in the market)
- RBI Selling $ in the market (sucking out rupee liquidity) (2/4)
To increase liquidity in the banking sector, RBI is doing OMO + Currency Swaps.
(1) 1,00,000 cr of OMO
- OMO means open market operations
- In this the RBI will buy bonds (Treasury Bills) from the banks before the maturity & give banks a 1L cr of liquidity before it matures
- This will increase the rupee liquidity in the market (3/4)
Let me tell you a story of the most brutal correction in India, it was the dot com bubble. Not only because markets corrected 54% but also because it lasted for 19 months.
Lets see what an SIP investor would have experienced (1/6)
If you were very smart & started your 25,000 SIP at the exact BOTTOM of the market cycle in Sep 2001 from where the correction ended & markets started going up & you stayed invested till Dec 2024, you would have invested 70 L over 280 months & today that would have become 5.50 cr. at the actual market returns. (2/6)
BUT, lets say you were unlucky & started at the TOP of the market cycle in Feb 2000 from where the 54% market correction started but stayed invested till Dec 2024, you would have invested 74.75 L over 299 months & today that would have become 6.70 cr at the actual market returns. (3/6)
What’s happening with Gold & what should you do? A quick 🧵
Gold has been going up because of these 4 reasons,
(1) US trade war (2) Central bank buying (3) Rupee Depreciation (4) Falling rates (1/n)
(1) US Trade War - There is policy uncertainty because of this. China, Mexico & Canada form close to 40% of America's trade partnership. Trade war leads to a risk off environment (people are scared to take risk in equity) + increase in inflation (as imports from China, Mexico & Canada becomes expensive). This led to Gold going up (2/n)
(2) Central Bank Buying - Post sanctions by US / G7 on Russia, central banks buying Gold & trying to reduce US dollar as reserves is increasing (De Dollarisation). Just the last Quarter, Central Banks bought 333 T of Gold (3/n)
Bond markets are expecting higher inflation with trump winning & hence the yields are going up, not a good sign for India equity. Let me explain (1/4)
(1) If Trump increases duty, it is inflationary as the imports will become costly & hence yields are going up
(2) If trump reduces corporate taxes, it means more stress on the government finances, more borrowings & hence higher yields (2/4)
While FED main continue to lower rates, the rate cut cycle will reduce in an inflationary situation. Remember FED can only impacts the shorter end of the curve with rate cuts. The longer end of the curve is market determined & hence the yields are up because markets feel inflation is coming back with Trump (3/4)
Continuing our Mutual Fund Education Series, here’s the 3rd thread; this will demystify the Hybrid Mutual Fund categories for you.
Do ‘re-tweet’ & help us educate more investors to make the right investing decisions (1/9)
(Q1) What are Hybrid Funds?
Hybrid funds are funds, which invest in multiple asset classes like
- Equity
- Debt
- Gold
- Preference Shares
- REITs & InvITs
With an objective to reduce volatility (vs pure equity funds) & try an generate better risk adjusted returns (2/9)
(Q2) Types of Hybrid Funds?
- Conservative Hybrid Fund
- Balanced Hybrid Fund
- Aggressive Hybrid Fund
- Dynamic Asset Allocation (DAAF) or Balanced Advantage Fund (BAF)
- Multi Asset Allocation Fund
- Arbitrage Fund
- Equity Savings Fund (3/9)