India becoming the leader of the non-aligned movement was regarded by Nehru as a historic achievement. Fifteen years later, Marshal Lin Biao got the nod from Chairman Mao and ordered PLA soldiers to pour across the Tibetan border with India.
There was no “non-aligned” country willing to come out in support of India and against China during the conflict.
As for the US and the USSR, the only countries that could have made a difference in a conflict involving China, the first intervened too late and too insubstantially to alter the outcome... .
while Moscow adopted the same stance as is being taken by that capital now, which was to avoid taking sides while giving signals of friendship separately to both sides.
Prime Minister Nehru and Defence Minister Krishna Menon took that assumption as an article of faith, exactly as Marshal Stalin had in 1941 when reports began to pour in that the German army was about to launch a blitzkrieg against the Soviet Union.
Fast forward to 1962 and the refusal of key policymakers to understand what was soon coming India’s way across the border with China, despite more than a decade of incessant intrusions, & since the 1959 relocation of the Dalai Lama to India, increasingly bad-tempered commentary.
As in those days, in 2020 as well voices abound who believe that the next summit meeting, the next telephone call, the next expertly-drafted statement, will result in the Sino-Indian border situation moving away from the shadow of impending conflict.
Beijing intends to take control of the entirety of the Himalayan massif, the South China Sea and Taiwan. There needs to be a military victory as in 1962, not a stalemate as in Vietnam in 1979.
In the absence of a clear understanding between India and the US about mutual security, the Himalayan massif seems to be the option offering a higher chance of a PLA success in 2021 than clearing the South China Sea of foreign navies or an attempted takeover of Taiwan.
Much of the difference between what took place in 1962 and what happened in 1971 was the result of the Indo-Soviet Treaty that was the brainchild of former Ambassador to the USSR, Durga Prasad Dhar.
The not insubstantial task given to Moscow by Beijing is to ensure that New Delhi does not enter into a security pact that involves the United States, whether this be a bilateral treaty or as part of a newly formalised Quadrilateral Alliance.
In 1962, India had neither a security treaty with Moscow nor with Washington. The same situation should not be allowed to prevail in the present.
There are leaders who play a strong hand poorly. Vladimir Putin plays a weak hand with spectacular success.
Modi needs to study the history of the 1962 & 1971 conflicts. 🇨🇳 & 🇵🇰 look forward to a repeat of 1962. Instead,what they should be served is a repeat of 1971, this time with the LAC getting extended substantially across western side, & fortified in strength on the eastern side.
Rather than luxuriate in visions of the dragon becoming a vegetarian from its normal existence as a carnivore, what is needed is for India to push a door that is already open. This would be the formalisation of an alliance mechanism involving the Quadrilateral Alliance.
It is unlikely that the Himalayan massif will be chosen as the next theatre for PRC expansionism were the 1971 precedent of a defensive treaty alliance to be followed by India, this time not with Moscow but with Washington & hopefully Tokyo & Canberra as well... .
Read my full article at: i.mdnalapat.com/tsg130920

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More from @MD_Nalapat

19 Sep
❝Those in the US and India who seek to “prevent war” seem to be unaware that the conflict has already started, and will end only with the defeat of one side over the other.❞

Xi gambles on Mission Meltdown in U.S. & India i.mdnalapat.com/tsg200920 Image
For Xi, as for his idol Mao Zedong, what counts is raw power and its exercise. He is clearly a believer in the adage that if an opponent is in a weaker position, it is irrelevant where that person’s heart and mind is, for he will be forced into doing what is wanted of him.
Even the “friendly face” of the PRC, Wang Yi, is voluble during conversations that his country is 100% right in whatever its leadership says or does, & so discussions need to centre around the sole point of how quickly & smoothly the other side acknowledges such an obvious fact.
Read 12 tweets
9 Sep
Next year is the centenary of the founding of 🇨🇳 CPC, & the leadership needs a military triumph to cover up the problems being faced on the economic side. The possible locations for an effort to generate such a victory would be the Himalayas, South China Sea or the Taiwan Strait.
Should the Indian economy continue on a downward trajectory and a new Biden administration backpedal on the Obama-Trump offer of a military partnership with India, the PLA may judge that their time to move forward in Kashmir, Bhutan and Arunachal Pradesh has arrived.
What the elders who chose Xi over Li in 2012 failed to factor in was the fact that in common with Mao Zedong, Xi has a ruthless drive to promote the Han nationalist concept of where the PRC should be, and what needs to be done to get it there.
Read 14 tweets
7 Sep
Israel and Arab countries both gain from better ties 🇮🇱🇦🇪

i.mdnalapat.com/tsg060920

@MoFAICUAE
@IsraelMFA
@UAEembassyIndia
@IsraelinIndia @AJCGlobal @jinsadc
.@jaredkushner made sure that the White House backed MBS and his anti-Wahhabi policies rather than go along with the worldwide campaign backed by the Wahhabi International to severely discredit and finally depose the Al Saud reformer.
Population of the UAE responded with calm to the announcement of normalisation of relations between t🇦🇪 & 🇮🇱. The feuds & attitudes of the past must not be permitted to further delay the transformative change that is needed for the Arab world to regain the position it once had.
Read 4 tweets
9 Aug
❝Cold War 2.0 calls for the Indo-Pacific Alliance, and to believe that either China or Russia or any of the powers linked to it (such as Pakistan) can form part of this alliance is to allow Nehruvian daydreams to once again fashion policy.❞

i.mdnalapat.com/tsg090820 Image
During Cold War 1.0, despite occasional sounds and pirouettes by the MEA and the PMO at the time, “non-alignment” in effect meant a tilt to the USSR. In the context of the present, a policy of non-alignment by any other name would work to the interests of China.
Just as the inclusion of Pakistan within US security systems during Cold War 1.0 made it impossible for Delhi to join with Washington, the close relationship between Pakistan and China has killed any chances for the Russia-India-China trilateral being much more than a photo-op.
Read 5 tweets
31 Jul
Characteristic of those steeped in the culture of the Lutyens Zone is to fasten themselves to whichever party and whoever leader is dominant at the period,discarding the old in the manner that lionesses forget an ageing lion that heads a pride who gets chased away by a competitor
Should another change occur, [...] causing the new masters to infuse into their govt enough elements of the old so as to ensure continuity in the policies that have kept much of the population of the country poorly compensated, inadequately educated and badly housed.
It was said of some of the ruling families that they forgot nothing and learnt nothing, which is why tectonic shifts in global geopolitics were not taken advantage of within the policymakers congregated inside the Lutyens Zone.
Read 15 tweets
20 Jul
Even after the 1962 Oct-Nov border war with India and Mao’s order for the PLA to return to pre-combat positions, since the Hu Jintao period, that entity has repeatedly flouted what may be termed as the “Chairman Mao LAC” by moving further and further into Indian territory... .
Just as Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Balakot strike ended the confidence within GHQ Rawalpindi that India’s leaders would not permit any expansion of the low intensity terror and border conflict with Pakistan into territory under the control of the Pakistan military...
... the response of Indian troops at Galwan followed by the Modi app ban has surprised those within the CCP, who have long been comforted by the silo system of decision making in the Lutyens Zone ensuring that border hostilities not be followed by any effect on trade & commerce.
Read 13 tweets

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