SDJim Profile picture
13 Sep, 7 tweets, 4 min read
It is likely that HOSPITAL usage by COVID patients in South Dakota will become a hot topic in coming days & weeks.

Here are some questions that come to mind. It would be nice if media reps would consider pursuing this line of questioning at a press conf.

🧵 A short thread. Image
It should be easy to put this one to rest:

The # of "currently hospitalized", per DoH, "MAY include out-of-state cases". Does that mean SOME or ALL non-SD residents receiving care in SD hospitals? Or non-SD residents residing in SD for college? Or SD residents in non-SD hosp? Image
What are the current denominators used for these various CAPACITY METERS, and how are those numbers determined?

Does capacity value represent real-world, actively available beds or does is include "surge" capacities that would require re-appropriation of ORs, post-op beds, etc? Image
The term "STAFFED" is inserted in headings for "staffed hospital beds" & "staffed ICU beds".

Are there really sufficient staff to safely use the beds counted? ICU nursing is highly specialized work. Are there really sufficient ICU RNs to work the beds?

How are the #'s derived?
And what is up with these HAvBED reporting facilities numbers?

It is common that fewer than half of the 63 network facilities have reported in the "last 24 hours". So how accurate is the reported # of currently hospitalized? This might not matter much but I'm curious. Image
No doubt there are other questions floating around out there. Feel free to comment here with your questions and what you know about the issues I've raised.

Also, please tag your local media CoV expert with hope they'll agree these questions are worth asking. Image
I need help tagging LOCAL, South Dakota media.


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More from @jimbuctwit

13 Nov

Disclaimer: I'm not an epidemiologist nor statistician. This is my understanding of the topic.

A simple internet search will yield a LOT of explanations with good graphics so you might consider going that route if I don’t provide what you need.
I am going to sacrifice brevity and density for clarity, so this could end up being a long thread. My apologies in advance. Someone who knows how might unroll this for us.

In my haste I won’t have diagrams or graphics so you’ll have to use your imagination at times.

This thread is obviously about the coronavirus pandemic so I won’t specifically refer to virus all that much. You know what I’m talking about.

To start, imagine a community of 1000 people in which 100 people are randomly infected. We’ll test a random sample of 100.
Read 30 tweets
12 Nov
If feel like making a shocking statement, a bold prediction. One of those statements a person immortalizes in a tweet that others repost a couple months later and say “This didn’t age well”.

If you’ll bear with me I’ll explain what is swirling around in my head.

Here’s a hint: Image
First, I should say that I don’t have any special access to information and I don’t really have any special skill in making predictions pertinent to the coronavirus pandemic in South Dakota. But it’s obvious I’ve been paying attention.

Some observations and assumptions:

COVID cases continue to rise in SD.
Community spread is SUBSTANTIAL just about EVERYWHERE in SD.
Some individual-level spread mitigation is happening.
No MEANINGFUL, broad governmental effort to mitigate spread is in effect.

Read 8 tweets
10 Nov
What good is FREE, MASS CoV TESTING to anyone who wants a test ...

IF you don't plan to quarantine until result is returned?
IF you are asymptomatic and are not a close contact?
IF results take 3-5 business days (up to a week!)?
IF you won't isolate 10+ days if positive?
IF ...
IF you are worried you might have COVID because you're sick or have had close contact with someone with COVID,

you MUST QUARANTINE until you receive the result otherwise the test does nothing to slow the spread. If you don't plan to quarantine why get the test?
IF your result is positive and you are unable or unwilling to NOTIFY OTHER with whom you've had close contact, or tell you employer about your result, the value of getting tested is very low.

The point of testing is to break the chain of transmission.
Read 8 tweets
18 Oct
I'm tired of the mask-debaters, anti-testers, herders and the like. I'm certain NOTHING will change their minds. People of that ideology, and it is an ideology, don't move to SD because they're welcome here, they are GROWN and nurtured here.

Many of them are my good friends.

If anyone wants to discuss the pandemic or has a legitimate question about how it spreads & how it does damage to the human body or economy, sure, I'll engage. We can start as far back in the basics of science as they want. I have all the patience in the world for that....
If anyone wants to discuss their fears & concerns about how the virus is impacting their life, I'll listen as long as it takes. I get that this is overwhelming & financially devastating to many. I will listen, and I'll propose that to get back to "normal" we must face the virus..
Read 7 tweets
27 Aug
I've noticed some confusion re discrepancies between # of CoV POSITIVES reported on a day & the # of POSITIVES for that same DATE on the TREND graph a couple days later.

I thought I could explain with a graphic. Unfortunately it became an uncontrolled, eye roll-worthy beast.
... Image
At the top, imagine @SDDOH receives results in 2 batches each day, 1 in the morning and 1 in afternoon. The POS results will be tallied & presented on trend graph for that date 2 days later (to allow time to verify & add in results that might arrive shortly before midnight).

Dashboard results are those received during a different 24 hr period, 13:00 one day to 13:00 the next. Once that period ends DoH uses rest of afternoon & next morning to process data, & then post the results. So, dashboard #'s are from the PM 2 days prior & AM prev day.

Read 4 tweets
22 Aug
SCIENCE - What is so great about science?

Science is like that NAIL you pounded into the wall a while back because you needed a place to HANG YOUR HAT.

Another Saturday morning THREAD (about “social” DISTANCING, and CONTACT TRACING).

Imagine you’re moving into a new place. You thought you saw a closet by the front door but were so excited to sign the lease you didn't notice.

NP. You get your toolbox & grab a hammer & nail. You pound a big nail deep into a wall stud &, voila: a place to hang your hat.

All is good, for a while. You later realize there is a better place to hang your hat. You know if you pry out that first nail it will leave a big hole & you’ll likely damage the wall a bit too.

You can just leave it and put a NEW NAIL somewhere else.
So that’s what you do.

Read 9 tweets

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