Hal Marshall Profile picture
Sep 13, 2020 6 tweets 1 min read Read on X
More strategic thinking from Bloomberg — he wants to eliminate trump’s ability to say he won on election night by denying him a critical 29 electoral votes. washingtonpost.com/politics/bloom…
“Bloomberg’s aim is to prompt enough early voting that a pro-Biden result would be evident soon after the polls close. Florida, unlike other swing states, reports almost all early ballots shortly after voting ends.
“Democrats and Republicans have worried that early results will dictate public perceptions of who will ultimately win the election. In many states, the first reported votes are more Republican, …
“but the numbers turn more Democratic over time as more mail-in and early votes are added to the tally.
“ ‘It would give lie to what we expect to be Trump’s election night messaging that Democrats are stealing the election, because unlike other battleground states, Florida counts its absentee ballots on or by Election Day,’ Bloomberg adviser Howard Wolfson said.
“ ‘We think Florida is incredibly close but winnable.’ “

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More from @HalMarshall2309

Oct 25, 2024
If you’re having heartburn today about polling & punditry, this thread should buck you up.

“I did a rough calculation of national polls released since Monday, October 14th:

•Independent Polls - Harris +2.7
•Right-aligned polls - Trump +1”

hopiumchronicles.com/p/the-vps-to-d…
“Right-aligned polls ran 3-4 points more Republican than the independent polls in 2022, and are doing so again this time.
“These polls created a mirage of right-ward movement, a red wave, and are doing so again. Do not be fooled, people, and remember - they would only be dropping all these polls if they thought they were losing the election.
Read 16 tweets
Sep 30, 2024
“Something remarkable and unprecedented is about to happen in America. According to the main postcard groups, 80 million handwritten postcards are going to be flying into the battlegrounds and doing their part for our democracy, for our freedoms and our future.” hopiumchronicles.com/p/80-million-p…
“Let us mark this important milestone, say a little prayer, grab a glass of wine for so many of you have worked so hard for this moment.
“It is here now, the election is here now, and these postcards that start getting mailed in large numbers tomorrow are essential to our goal of running up the score in the early vote and winning the election in October.
Read 6 tweets
Sep 4, 2024
@politicalwire recommends waiting until after Labor Day before paying too much attention to the polls. Here’s his advice on what to make of the polls now. politicalwire.com/2024/09/03/now…
“Don’t make too much of individual polls and follow the polling averages instead. The best polling aggregators are Nate Silver … natesilver.net/p/nate-silver-…
Read 8 tweets
Jul 30, 2024
Sad news for trump. Very sad.

“The political world is buzzing, not only over Harris’s momentum but the coming announcement of her choice of running mate.
“Undecided voters are learning about impressive, capable, and normal Democrats all over the country—from Gov. Andy Beshear to Gov. Josh Shapiro to Gov. Tim Walz.
“They’re also seeing clips of the inimitable Pete Buttigieg pop up in their feeds, destroying Trump and Vance on television every few hours.
Read 12 tweets
Jul 28, 2024
An interview with the chief author of the American intelligence community’s report on Russia’s interference in the 2016 presidential election.

rollingstone.com/politics/polit…
“The unclassified version of the intelligence report concluded that Putin had ‘ordered an influence campaign in 2016 aimed at the U.S. presidential election,’ had ‘developed a clear preference for [Trump],’ and ‘aspired to help [Trump’s] election chances when possible.’
“The report found broad agreement within the intelligence community except for one point: Had Putin ordered Russia’s spy services to meddle in the election merely to cause bipartisan chaos, or had he wanted Trump to win?
Read 7 tweets
Jul 24, 2024
Thanks to @NastyOldWomyn for flagging this article.

“Superficial analyses of why certain tech billionaires are aligning with Trump tend to fixate on issues like taxes & regulations, but that’s only part of the story.
“Tech plutocrats like Thiel & Elon Musk already have money. Now they want power—as much as money can buy.” newrepublic.com/article/183971…
“ … Vance is a Thiel creation. And like his billionaire benefactor—who once wrote, ‘I no longer believe that freedom and democracy are compatible’—Vance embraces a radical ideology hell-bent on destroying government as we know it.
Read 8 tweets

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