In a country with ~150 million voters, there are going to be a lot of idiots out there. No Democrat is ever going to get the vote of this person and no Democrat should try. There is no reason to seek this kind of person's vote. There are lots of other voters in Ohio to get.
And no, it has nothing to do with this man's profession, race or education. It has everything to do with his worldview, which is completely antithetical to the Democratic Party. And...that's okay. There are lots of people Republicans know they will never get to vote Republican.
At best, you can load this guy up with enough contradictory nonsense to get him not to vote at all. He seems awfully gullible and susceptible to blatant falsehoods. But it's probably not worth the effort. Go out and encourage his wife, sister, mother, brother who might vote Dem.
Advance policies that will benefit those around him, even if he does not see it (or want it). If he changes his outlook later on, great! If he doesn't, oh well. But don't fixate on people like this as if they are the real stumbling block to Biden's election.
BTW, a better indicator of Ohio is not this doofus (if it's even a real quote). It's this: Trump is pulling TV ads in Ohio.…

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More from @AstorAaron

15 Sep
Every election since 2004 I've obsessively watched poll numbers, often checking several times a day in the months before the election. And my mood usually follows the latest polls until I check again. It's...really not a healthy or useful thing to do. I suspect I'm not alone...
I have OCD so it's particularly bad. It's like repeatedly checking sports scores and thinking that if I sit in a different position, the result will be different. Of course, the stakes are higher with an election. But then again, polls are not actual points going on the board.
Either way, it's just unhealthy. And in 2020 it's even more absurd since the polls have been so stable for months. As if the latest poll of Swing State X from B+ pollster Y will CHANGE EVERYTHING...until another poll from pollster Z with a B rating counters it.
Read 16 tweets
13 Sep
While Trump yammers on about HRC again, let's look at the race in 2016 v. today. It's 51 days to the election. Sept 18 was 51 days from the 2016 election. 2016 forecast final PV was 46.7-44.3 (HRC+2.4). Pretty close to final result (HRC+2.1). Today? Biden up 52.8-45.9 (+6.9).
How about 538's forecast of EC victory? 2016 it was HRC with a 61.1% chance, having dropped from 89% a month earlier. Today? Biden has a 76% of victory, stable all along, though a bit higher than two weeks ago (it was 67% on Aug 31).
I've said all along that this election is about the pandemic and not "law and order." But that's not really it either. This election is about Trump and his actual record and behavior as President. So let's look at his job approvals v. past Presidents up for re-election.
Read 12 tweets
9 Sep
This really is outrageous. Trump said he "played it down" bc he didn't want to create a "panic." But he didn't do that either. He went the other extreme and encouraged his followers to expect it to go from 15 cases to zero. Panic was likelier when people figured out he was wrong.
All of which shows what a catastrophic leadership failure this was. Lots of people were flying blind and doing the best they can. Some things Trump may or may not have been able to fix. But messaging was certainly something he could control. And he completely botched it.
It's also almost certainly bullshit that he was most concerned about creating a panic. Because he continued to talk up short-cuts and offer false hope through April. The reason was political: He worried that the economic fallout would hurt his re-election prospects.
Read 9 tweets
9 Sep
This. Because let's face it: If Joe Biden wins the popular vote by more than 4 points (or about 6 million) votes and loses the Electoral College, this country will implode. Huge numbers of people will conclude that voting just doesn't help. And things will get extremely ugly.
I just don't think people have processed how catastrophic it will be if we have two consecutive EV/PV splits, esp. if the second one is even more distorted than the first. And if Biden gets an outright majority - not just plurality - in the PV, it will be even more dangerous.
Our Constitution is great, but it isn't perfect. It's been amended 27 times. But what makes it work is the legitimacy that the public grants to it. Winner-take-all is the culprit, BTW, not the Electoral College per se. But we've gotten lucky over the years with few EV/PV splits.
Read 11 tweets
2 Sep
Selzer poll is out: Biden leads by 8, 49-41. This is an A+ pollster. It had Biden up only 4 in March.…
This means it is almost impossible for Trump to surge into a PV tie or lead in the poll averages in the aftermath of the RNC. +8 is well above any EV/PV split threshold. The race is not over. Things can still change. But Trump will need to do what Truman did in 1948 to win.
And here are the crosstabs. The party ID split is almost even between D & R; Biden leads Indies by 10. Biden also gets 45% of white votes, which positions him well in the Upper Midwest.
Read 4 tweets
16 Aug
Can we at least be clear about what the “Shy Trump voter” means? It does NOT mean hiding your views from friends and neighbors. It means actually LYING to an anonymous pollster about voter intention. But even there, you’d see it in high undecideds or 3rd party vote.
Are there people who won’t talk to pollsters at all? Sure! And “non-response bias” is a real thing. But it’s almost always short-lived and it comes after some embarrassing news event for one candidate.
Any decent pollster weights for demographics to ensure that one heavily pro or anti Trump demo is included at the right proportion (which could be off bc of faulty assumptions about turnout).
Read 5 tweets

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