Just read the notes to get a sense why I am saying that, but better yet, just give it a listen to get the whole thing, not just the tidbits.
2/ Seibel is "The man who gets to see the future".
So what does he see?
Today's Founders are braver. They want to attack problems that have deeper and more positive impact on society.
3/ More and more founders are coming from outside the US.
I know it in my bones that talent is far from centralized in any particular region of the world. It's everywhere.
It's inevitable capitalism will find its way to get to them. It may be slow, but inevitable.
4/ Running a successful startup is DIFFICULT. Like really, really difficult.
5/ Trying to predict successful startups is a futile idea, so don't even try.
Look for: teams that can launch an MVP, have momentum, and have a camaraderie.
6/ Founders should be able to explain their idea to laymen. They should definitely know more about what they're building than investors.
Also, co-founders should not hate each other.
7/ Once upon a time, YC also had to start from scratch. It's not just the size of check that increased, it's the YC alumni network that probably adds a lot more value than the check they sign for the startups.
8/ Silicon Valley is built to fund software companies. Sounds like an opportunity for some region to really hone their focus on non-software businesses.
Caveat: Non-software businesses are harder to build than software businesses.
9/ Ask these three questions to realize whether these problems are worth solving
I. How frequent is the problem?
II. How intense is the problem for those experiencing it?
III. Are customers willing to pay to fix it?
10/ Wait, doesn't Airbnb violate all those rules?
Nope.
11/ You may have to "cheat supply" for a two-sided marketplace.
12/ PromisePay: What an amazing business. Definitely rooting for them.
13/ Interesting differences between first-time founders and second-time founders.
@mgirdley, you probably already listened to this, but if not, you will find it interesting.
14/ How difficult is startup?
"Imagine if the first day you went to Yale Law School, the professor told you like only one or two of you are going to become lawyers. You'd be like, "Wait, why am I paying all this? Like, ooh, this is not what I signed up for!"
15/ "folks who can basically get a product up and running in some way, shape, or form, and get a couple of customers, the first 10 customers to love the product and pay for the product, they have far more leverage when trying to convince an investor that this might be a thing."
16/ How do you know whether you have product-market-fit?
It's not a philosophical question. If it's a fit, it will probably scream.
"Market environment remains weak, with shipments below 2019 levels."
growth opportunities in industrial and automotive
Four revenue scenarios for 2026, with floor being $20 Bn. FYI, $TXN consensus estimates for '26 revenue is $20 Bn.
"I would be extremely disappointed if it ends up at $20 billion. That's not my expectation. That's not the signature I see as we compete for market share today."
I received a couple of DMs asking about "hey, what's going on in Bangladesh"
While I left Bangladesh in 2017, my almost entire family still lives there. So I'm keenly aware of what's going on. I'll briefly cover what happened and the implications.
let's start with the end result. The Prime Minister (PM) Sheikh Hasina or SH (who's the Head of State in Bangladesh) fled the country after facing intense protest from Bangladeshi students. Her exact location doesn't seem to be confirmed yet (rumored to be India or EU).
Let's back up a little and give some brief historical context.
SH came to power in 2008. Her father- Mujib was the architect in mobilizing people in Bangladesh to gain independence from Pakistan in 1971. Following independence, Mujib became the first PM of Bangladesh.
closed my $AMZN Jan 2025 $160 calls that I wrote. 43% gain in this trade, but feels like just another lucky trade as I now think AMZN is undervalued (and I was likely too cautious to hedge it at $160 back then). Kept the $55 calls unhedged now.
CSU's organic growth for recurring revenue will probably more or less mimic $BRO's organic growth. But CSU has ~20% ROIC vs BRO's ~10% but they trade at *almost* similar multiple. So I decided to buyback what I trimmed.
Going through insurance brokers earnings now. $AON and $MMC finally growing in tandem after AON lagged MMC consistently since 2Q'21.
$BRO is the clear winner in organic growth for this quarter. (disc: long $BRO and $AON)
Looking closer between MMC and AON.
will add to this thread later as I go through the transcript.
In the meantime, here's my Deep Dive on $BRO (also explains why I love this industry and would like to own probably most of these companies over time at "right" valuation):
After sequential revenue decline in China for 7 consecutive quarters, this quarter experienced ~15-20% growth across all segments in China. Europe and Japan are also in early phase of the upcycle.
More commentary on China:
"the market is more competitive in China, but we can compete and we can win business in very attractive margins"
expect incremental margin to be ~75-85% (ex depreciation)
"Inventory is being built at the right part, where we have this diversity and longevity positions such that we don't risk the scrap of the inventory."