Mostly Borrowed Ideas Profile picture
Sep 14, 2020 18 tweets 8 min read Read on X
1/ Notes from @mwseibel episode at @InvestLikeBest

It's the BEST episode I have listened to in 2020.

Just read the notes to get a sense why I am saying that, but better yet, just give it a listen to get the whole thing, not just the tidbits.
2/ Seibel is "The man who gets to see the future".

So what does he see?

Today's Founders are braver. They want to attack problems that have deeper and more positive impact on society.
3/ More and more founders are coming from outside the US.

I know it in my bones that talent is far from centralized in any particular region of the world. It's everywhere.

It's inevitable capitalism will find its way to get to them. It may be slow, but inevitable.
4/ Running a successful startup is DIFFICULT. Like really, really difficult.
5/ Trying to predict successful startups is a futile idea, so don't even try.

Look for: teams that can launch an MVP, have momentum, and have a camaraderie.
6/ Founders should be able to explain their idea to laymen. They should definitely know more about what they're building than investors.

Also, co-founders should not hate each other.
7/ Once upon a time, YC also had to start from scratch. It's not just the size of check that increased, it's the YC alumni network that probably adds a lot more value than the check they sign for the startups.
8/ Silicon Valley is built to fund software companies. Sounds like an opportunity for some region to really hone their focus on non-software businesses.

Caveat: Non-software businesses are harder to build than software businesses.
9/ Ask these three questions to realize whether these problems are worth solving

I. How frequent is the problem?
II. How intense is the problem for those experiencing it?
III. Are customers willing to pay to fix it?
10/ Wait, doesn't Airbnb violate all those rules?

Nope.
11/ You may have to "cheat supply" for a two-sided marketplace.
12/ PromisePay: What an amazing business. Definitely rooting for them.
13/ Interesting differences between first-time founders and second-time founders.

@mgirdley, you probably already listened to this, but if not, you will find it interesting.
14/ How difficult is startup?

"Imagine if the first day you went to Yale Law School, the professor told you like only one or two of you are going to become lawyers. You'd be like, "Wait, why am I paying all this? Like, ooh, this is not what I signed up for!"
15/ "folks who can basically get a product up and running in some way, shape, or form, and get a couple of customers, the first 10 customers to love the product and pay for the product, they have far more leverage when trying to convince an investor that this might be a thing."
16/ How do you know whether you have product-market-fit?

It's not a philosophical question. If it's a fit, it will probably scream.
17/ How do you get better at execution?

Find your peers who help you get better at it.

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More from @borrowed_ideas

Mar 1
another great interview of @danielgross and @natfriedman by @benthompson

Some notes from the interview:

on Japan:

"...We’ve been puzzled by why TSMC’s margins aren’t better for a little while. Why are they not taking more of the margin? And I think you just said it, they’ve been through so many rounds of boom and bust and they’ve outlived a lot of people who made the wrong moves."

...I find a really interesting mispriced thing in the world might be Japan, the entire country.

...if you’re trying to consolidate all your bets on semiconductors, Japan’s a pretty interesting geography, because I think they’re going to have all these components at the end of the day, in basically one single country.

...What I sort of wonder is in a world where, if AI really happens, maybe the 2030s are the decade of Japan, if they really are able to manufacture all of these components that have to get offshore from Taiwan for various reasons."
"Don't bet against Zuck"Image
On Gemini:

"...not only did they deliver a good model, but they delivered innovation along an axis, a couple orders of magnitude out from what anyone else had delivered so far

...it’s clear that Google has figured something out here, and they have a bit of a secret and we’ve all been looking for clues and poring over the literature to figure out what it is. But this is a real axis of differentiation."
Read 8 tweets
Nov 16, 2023
So I got my Ray-Ban Meta Smart glasses today. Based on my first impressions, here’s what I think about it.

Image
Image
Image
By far the best aspect of the glass is integration with Spotify and audio quality.

Unless you stand really close to each other, sound is not quite perceptible to others even though it is quite crisp to you.

90% probability that I have already bought my last AirPods.
I can call anyone on my contact via phone, Messenger, and/or WhatsApp.

I usually go for a walk in the afternoon, and I did feel lot more present in my surroundings with glass than with AirPods.
Read 9 tweets
Oct 27, 2023
$AMZN 3Q'23 Update

Imagine opening Amazon’s earnings report 5 years from now and what do you think you might hope you paid more attention to? It’s very unlikely to be AWS topline growth rate this (or any) quarter.
If I have to guess, it’s the shipping+ fulfillment costs related developments that you would find more consequential 5 years from now.

I’ll explain why but let’s first take a look at some numbers quickly before going back to that discussion.
3P revenue grew by almost +20%, ads +25%, subscription mid-teen, and 1P MSD+.

AWS, which was the key focus for many, grew by ~12%. More on AWS later; let’s start more segment level discussion with Amazon, ex AWS. Image
Read 19 tweets
Oct 26, 2023
Thread on $META follow-up call and some more thoughts on the quarter
Meta's DAU/MAU is at all-time high. Consumers vote with their time whereas "Intellectual Yet Idiot" class remains busy dissecting "surveillance capitalism"

chart h/t @east_cap Image
it seems the impact from the war so far has been minimal, and the wider 4Q revenue guide was likely just out of caution. Image
Read 9 tweets
Oct 26, 2023
$META 3Q'23 Update

Meta had a terrific third quarter which makes the after-hours reaction (down ~3%) tad bit surprising, but perhaps understandable given the wider range of scenarios for advertising going forward.

Here are my highlights from tonight’s call.
Since 4Q’19, Meta added 880 Mn Daily Active Users/People (DAU/DAP) to its Family of Apps (FOA) properties.

Given Snap currently has 406 mn DAU, this means Meta added two “Snap” (and then some) in less than four years!! Image
DAU/MAU engagement looks steady across all regions. Overall DAU/MAU ratio has been inching up for the last seven consecutive quarters. Image
Read 30 tweets
Oct 25, 2023
$GOOG 3Q'23 Update

While Google Service segment did just fine, Google Cloud’s pace of deceleration in topline was a bit disappointing.

Here are my highlights from the call tonight.
After four consecutive quarters of single digit growth, Google returned to double digit growth this quarter.

Both Search and YouTube grew by double digit, but Google cloud’s topline growth came down from ~28% last quarter to 22.5% this quarter. Image
Google Services maintained mid-30s EBIT margin, but after posting QoQ margin expansion for the last 6 quarters, Google Cloud’s margin declined from 4.9% in 2Q’23 to 3.2% in 3Q’23. Image
Read 18 tweets

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