hot take yg gue ingin utarakan dr kemarin (tp gue males nulis proper post):

1. kebijakan BI saat ini terlalu ketat dan gue ga paham reasoning-nya
2. Bank Indonesia's money printer should go brrrrr. For real
Some primers: biasanya alasan textbook agar bank sentral ga nggilani u/ cetak duit adalah asumsi bahwa di jangka panjang, long term growth rate stabil (dY/Y=0) dan kecepatan uang stabil (dV/V=0) sehingga kenaikan money supply (dM/M) = inflasi (dP/P).

Of course this is nonsense
lots of literature kasih lihat bahwa money velocity ga stabil terutama di masa krisis, terutama karena risk appetite turun + deleveraging -> increase in monetary base ga translated 1-to-1 ke inflasi

ergo, monetary policy yg longgar ga necessarily bikin inflasi kalo krisis
furthermore, kalo lihat policy rate in real terms (dikurangin inflasi yoy), suku bunga BI saat ini justru lebih tinggi dibandingkan awal tahun -> monetary contraction in real term krn BI ga turunin bunga lebih cepat dr inflasi
ditambah lagi transmission lag bikin penurunan suku bunga cukup lambat. BI rate udah turun 1% sejak awal tahun tapi suku bunga kredit baru turun ~0.5%...
...kenyataan bahwa in real term BI malah kontraksi + tranmission lag + risk appetite dari bank yang turun -> pertumbuhan kredit jatoh banget. bahkan pertumbuhan kredit y.o.y hampir 0% dari sebelum-sebelumnya >5% minimal.
yg lebih ngeselin adalah policy stance yg relatif ketat ini bukan juga karena BI secara eksplisit menganggap bahwa risiko depresiasi masih tinggi.

publicly di rilis RDG Agustus kemarin bahkan PW bilang kalo Rupiah saat ini relatif undervalued + tone-nya cukup optimis
seakan2 BI menganggap growth contraction ini bakal selesai di Q4 2020 -> akomodatif bakal bikin inflation overshoot.

Bonkers, wong pandeminya belum kelar -> minimal sampe H1-2021 ga bakal ada namanya "back to normal"
my concern dengan pace kebijakan skrg dan denialism thd possible prolonged contraction -> BI bener2 waaaay behind the curve. dengan inflasi September-November yg biasanya selalu rendah + muted December inflation gr2 org toh ga mudik natal -> end of year inflation bs <1%
plus kalo gue kasi benefit of the doubt bahwa private stance BI adalah takut depresiasi, gue ga paham kenapa terlalu fokus ke kestabilan nilai tukar di tengah pandemi & worst economic contraction sejak 98. in any case, cadev baru naik +$17 bio sejak Maret -> bs soften the blow
hence why gue ga paham kenapa BI cukup reluctant u/ burden sharing. In any case justru malah harus lebih agresif dan pake unconventional policies karena tranmisi via kebijakan konvensional (7D RRR) ga bakal jalan krn perbankan masi deleveraging
some suggestions for unconventional policies:

1. cash-for-trash ke bank kalo NPL naik terus. incentivize bank u/ agresif restrukturisasi kredit macet dengan janji pembelian asset-backed securities (ABS) yg isinya kredit2 macet dengan generous terms (e.g. 20 cents on a dollar)
2. aggressive secondary market purchase of gov't bonds.

Beli lebih banyak SUN, terutama issue yg high coupon dan long dated. Interest-nya bisa 100% pass thru ke dividen negara -> ngurangin beban pembayaran bunga APBN
secondary market purchase juga jauh mendingan dibanding primary market purchase terutama dr segi optics independensi BI -> BI bantu negara karena their incentives are just aligned, bantu APBN = bantu kestabilan harga
intinya adalah:
WEH BI LO KOK ALAY BGT HARI GINI MASIH MIKIRIN USD/IDR PADAHAL SWASTA & INDIVIDU UDAH MEGAP2 LO MAU FINANCIAL SYSTEM MOKAT BERJAMAAH?
gila emosi jiwa sendiri gue abis liat credit growth terus BI masih seakan2 everything is fine. Perry Warjiyo and the rest of DG can go fuck themselves

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