sebidscap Profile picture
14 Sep, 14 tweets, 4 min read
Just spent 4h on $TDOC $LVGO merger S-4/A (sec.gov/Archives/edgar…), carefully read first 200p, skimmed the (repetitive/formulaic) rest.

Most important stuff:

pic of pre-synergy & standalone financial assumptions for next years.

(btw: synergies are + $500mn run-rate by 2025)
Means that end of 2022, ex merger synergies, one would own combined entity with $2.631bn rev that grows to $3.449bn in 2023.
31.09% growth + 17.14% EBITDA margins for 2023.

[Again, that's ex merger synergies, which are probable bc <25% customer overlap + international expansion]
Fair 2023 forward multiple for that?
Assume 155mn $TDOC shares out. (currently 143.1mn look-through $TDOC post merger)

15x? = $3.449bn -> $51.736bn mcap -> $333 share price.
(That's pre merger synergies!)

Current val of ~$27.5bn mcap is 8x sales on 2023.

Rule of 40, only 8x?!
Seems too cheap! Why would sth with 31% growth & 17% EBITDA margins trade at 8x sales? (again, ex rev synergies that result in higher growth).

My verdict: Love what's qualitatively happening and quantitatively imo CAGR forward still so high, simply not going to be penny-foolish.
Maybe roughly $3.7bn rev for 2023 with merger synergies!
TAM ~$121bn. Clear leading company. New gorilla. Tailwinds galore.

If it's 16x forward sales EOY 2022 ($3.7bn sales in 2023), at 155mn $TDOC shares, that's $58.9bn mcap and $380, which would result in a double.
Not assuming a 2y2x...Just giving scenarios.

I simply let Mr. Market figure out if this is worth 8x or 20x sales in 2023.

(I plan to hold this for decades, so actually not THAT interested about EOY 2022 multiple guessing game, just think 8x rev could just as well be 16x, too.)
Wanted to highlight current market assumptions & scenarios, wanted to provide you information. You decide if CAGR is good enough for you. Even though I plan to hold truly long-term, medium-term CAGR still looks very satisfactory to me.
Imo top 1% companies = overtly cheap, often.
...Then those $LVGO and $TDOC projections. If it's actually ~$2bn uFCF 2030 for $LVGO alone, I will have bought for PE of 1. And I would make >30x in 10y. I'm at ~6x now, and I need 5x next 9.3y to get to 30x.

If it's 4x next 9.3y for combined entity, obviously I won't complain.
Of course these are simply highly abstract projections...

So, if you want to get up to speed on $LVGO + $TDOC, the latest investor presentation from 03.09.2020 is basically magnitudes better & great investment on your time: s21.q4cdn.com/672268105/file…

I recommend the presentation.
Also have read all the other merger documents, those 425s, all conference transcripts. Merger has my approval.

Really want to step back now & just let management execute. Big fan of Glen Tullman. Can recommend to read 10p of "Background of merger" (page 79), great negotiating!
Lesson learned: Don't think that many people read those documents? Feels somewhat deserted. Why? No discussions online!

Repeated actual reading of documents just feels proper.
(I'm NOT an authority on those things, - it's simply that hardly anyone else writes about this!)
Another lesson: I believe I can clearly show that, - if you simply bring 2-3y of patience, this looks quite affordable based on management's projection.

Now this becomes a matter of believe. Can it be true that the leading telehealth company is quite affordable during pandemic?
Assumption prob is that such a company, esp during pandemic, is wildly expensive, right?

Imo those assumptions are wrong. My guess is that there are extremely few people who actually have a look, and >90% of market participants are traders that get their thoughts second hand.
I hope that I'll be compensated (soonish) for my ability to sit, concentrate & read... Feeling ready for more responsibility. I'm having fun, I'm performing well and I believe I'm doing at least more than most, investment professionals or not. I feel ready to manage more capital.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with sebidscap

sebidscap Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @sebidscap

13 Sep
Just read Amwell's ( $AMWL ) prospectus, & watched their roadshow. Assume market spirits are high for something like "telehealth software provider", but I'm not impressed. Lackluster margins, so much deficit to get to so little subscription revenue in 14 years.🤨
$LVGO way better
Doesn't feel like an opportunity to me, doesn't feel like true product-market-fit. Too much effort & energy for too little outcome. Big losses, not too much revenue. So little growth considering tailwinds, imo. 587 employees in 2018 to 686 employees in 2019. After 14 years...
Whitelabel provider = also caps the upside, which I don't like.

More disruption would have been better. I prefer to own companies with a closer relationship with their customers.
Read 7 tweets
5 Aug
I'm still early in my investment journey, so I feel the need to prove my consistent ability to come up with the very best investment ideas based on rational analysis. My $LVGO investment represents this. I've worked alone, during a time when it was completely ignored, bought..
shares below $17 (partial >9x in <1y based on the fact that $LVGO touched >157 pre-market), own a decently sized position with an avg cost of $21.606 where I still own 78% of.

It's not a pretty way, but for me, having a low avg cost is a suitable way of showing: I do the work.
Beyond that I wrote a super rough 6 page writeup on $LVGO in September, that I gave to @FromValue (his first PotentialMultibagger pick was $LVGO, currently the single best performing stock of his very recommomendable service) and a one-pager on the wonderful Founder Glen Tullman.
Read 10 tweets
13 May
Druckenmiller's "risk-reward for equity is maybe as bad as I've seen it in my career" matters quite a bit to me considering his track record (+the fact that I'm into investing since <3y).

But his actions matter even more: He's long cloud plays.

So am I.

About selling... (1/4)
If I consider selling, I need sth better to buy, imo.

While I don't feel qualified to know if WHOLE MARKET truly is expensive, when I look at e.g. $FB, $AMZN, $SFTBY, $GOOG, $MSFT, $JD, $TCEHY... What's the alternative?

Seems "good enough", so dire outlook =/= selling action.
As a nerd, my base activity is information processing. I believe that I already have more than 10,000 hours of investment work + experience since I heard about investment for the first time around fall 2017.

If Corona happened 1.5y earlier, I would have done horrifying mistakes.
Read 4 tweets
1 Apr
Xiaomi thread.
$1810.HK.
It's funny that Xiaomi mentions the Fortune 500, because every year I study the Fortune 2,000 list and simply think about which companies are likely to move up in their ranking. It's stupidly easy, but highly effective.

"Xiaomi is 10 years old, already number 468"->more to come?
Xiaomi's R&D, like with so many interesting companies, just continues to grow. They will have RMB10bn in 2020, and they plan on investing RMB50bn in R&D over the next 5 years at least.

Wonder how effective ~$1.4bn is in (mostly) China, based on differences in GDP per capita.
Read 25 tweets
23 Mar
Had two and a half intensely focused and fun days to get up to speed with Elastic ( $ESTC ). Have been reading all calls, SA articles, many dozens of Slideshare presentations, various blog posts, skimmed prospectus, 10k & DEF 14A and watched many presentations on YouTube.
Elastic is highly interesting, spending time learning about it, I believe, has great ROI on your time.

Best resources:
Most useful blog post I've found is this one by @StackInvesting. softwarestackinvesting.com/elastic-estc-s… - Can recommend to check out their A+ work & to follow them on Twitter!
Useful $ESTC YouTube vids with imo high time-ROI:

overview: &
youtube.com/channel/UCUaTR…

CEO Shay Banon about SIEM, Endpoint Security:

Keeping Up with the ELK Stack: Elasticsearch, Kibana, Beats, & Logstash:
Read 33 tweets
21 Mar
That's my baby.
Part-ownership in companies only.
Close to no cash.
Roughly one third in Chinese companies.
Rest mostly USA.
One thing that's unusual here is number of stocks. Sligthly ashamed to admit, but I'm gradually going into direction of Walter Schloss amounts of stocks.
While I get the concept of "Slugging", I've seen too many investors buy large positions that go down >50%.

I'm maximizing "hit ratio" currently. I need lots of opportunities to answer "did I analyze this opportunity correctly and make money?" thus I own lots of companies.
By doing so I'm essentially growth-hacking investment experience of decades into years by simply owning & experiencing more individual situations.

Constantly learning about huge numbers of companies and owning a lot of them aligns well with only being into investment since 2.5y.
Read 73 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!