Prof Nick Cowern Profile picture
Sep 14, 2020 4 tweets 1 min read Read on X
Earth is now so far out of equilibrium (at around 1.1°C global mean surface temperature rise) that it is rapidly moving into a state hostile to existing human settlement of the planet. At this temperature, realistic projected costs are off the scale. 1.5°C impacts are unthinkable
Are we going to allow this ongoing disintegration of the physical basis of our civilisation, or use the tools we possess to stop all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions? That is clearly the only realistic economic course. It needs to done and dusted in the next 10-20 years.
It can be done. The first step,
building massive quantities of wind and solar energy generation and storage (sufficient to transform all technology from fossil fuelled to electric) should be done within 5 years along with intense planning for the following steps.
This may appear an ambitious program in comparison to business as usual, but it may still not prevent peak global mean surface temperature of 1.5°C for a decade or two - long enough to damage much of our existing settlement of the planet.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Prof Nick Cowern

Prof Nick Cowern Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @NickCowern

Oct 7, 2023
Viewed from space, Earth has darkened significantly over the last 20y; satellite data show a roughly 2% reduction in reflected sunlight. This has led to an increase in Earth's already rising energy imbalance due to CO2 emissions. No wonder global heating has been accelerating. Image
Data from NASA CERES courtesy of @LeonSimons8
@LeonSimons8 The additional warming effect on global temperature has not been very apparent until this year, because most of the change shown above has happened in the cooler La Niña period of the last 6 years. This year La Niña ended and we're feeling the full impact of the additional heat.
Read 7 tweets
Oct 5, 2023
Scientists should not be stunned by this September's heat.
It has been waiting to happen for several years as Earth's energy imbalance has steadily risen. The end of a 6y La Niña has shown us the result and the coming El Niño will be a terrible shock.
theguardian.com/environment/20…
All of this has been evident in data collected by the NASA CERES satellite cluster and NOAA's Argo ocean sensors, and jointly reported by these agencies. But the received wisdom among climate modellers has been "no acceleration in warming" 👇
“Warming is remarkably steady, and that’s bad enough,” said Prof Michael Mann... “There is no reason to invent an ‘acceleration’ that isn’t there to make the case for urgency. The impacts of warming make the case for urgency.”
OOPS.
theguardian.com/environment/20…
Read 5 tweets
Jun 25, 2023
Nice one! But bear in mind warming is currently also driven by the recent (since ~2010) and ongoing fall in anthropogenic SOx emissions which has roughly doubled the rate of recent warming.
@MichaelEMann I supported your tweet and referred to SOx because I have confidence in the paper by Leon Simons with Jim Hansen and others, and because it tallies with my unpublished work. I think there is a healthy debate to be had here, so I'll ignore your shaft about climate twitter.
@MichaelEMann Point taken, let's discuss further when the paper is published. However given the importance of the subject I support their efforts to draw attention to what is, if they are right, an extremely urgent problem.
Read 4 tweets
Nov 20, 2022
Bizarre outcome from #COP27. The parties agreed to a loss and damage fund but did not agree to take genuine action to keep within 1.5°C global temperature rise. The result: loss and damage costs will _inevitably_ come to exceed the ability of ANY group of countries to pay them
Either the parties still do not grasp the enormity of the disaster ahead of them.
Or the promise is an empty one to be cynically discarded in the light of events.
Or there is a genuine recognition that a sea-change is coming this year in the politics of climate mitigation.
Actual implementation of a significant loss and damage formula would dramatically alter the global economic status quo and global power balance, as it creates in effect an exponentially rising, partly retrospective, tax on carbon for all contributors to the fund.
Read 4 tweets
Apr 29, 2020
Highly significant that the two wealthy western countries with the worst problems of social inequality and deprivation - the US and UK - have accounted for nearly half of all global COVID-19 deaths to date.
I've been asked what evidence I've used to infer that this apparent correlation is "highly significant". Well, here is part of the answer. It's up-to-the-minute information that is directly relevant to the epidemiology of COVID-19.
Those in deprived areas have double death rates of affluent areas, new statistics show. I strongly suspect this explains slowly falling UK hospital admissions at a time when symptomatic cases in the country as a whole have plummeted from 2.1M to 350,000.

theguardian.com/politics/live/…
Read 5 tweets
Apr 27, 2020
1/ Stunning insights from the NHS symptom-reporting app. It shows a dramatic decrease in live symptomatic cases, starting on 1st April, just 8 days after the UK lockdown began.
2/ The % decrease is vastly greater than the slight decrease in hospital admissions over the same period.
Why? Here's my proposed explanation: (THREAD)
3/ There are two key facets to this. First, a delay effect. Hospital admission comes maybe 1-2 weeks after symptoms appear. Thus the admissions curve probably peaks a week later than the symptomatic curve, just from this effect.
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Don't want to be a Premium member but still want to support us?

Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal

Or Donate anonymously using crypto!

Ethereum

0xfe58350B80634f60Fa6Dc149a72b4DFbc17D341E copy

Bitcoin

3ATGMxNzCUFzxpMCHL5sWSt4DVtS8UqXpi copy

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us!

:(