Earth is now so far out of equilibrium (at around 1.1°C global mean surface temperature rise) that it is rapidly moving into a state hostile to existing human settlement of the planet. At this temperature, realistic projected costs are off the scale. 1.5°C impacts are unthinkable
Are we going to allow this ongoing disintegration of the physical basis of our civilisation, or use the tools we possess to stop all anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions? That is clearly the only realistic economic course. It needs to done and dusted in the next 10-20 years.
It can be done. The first step,
building massive quantities of wind and solar energy generation and storage (sufficient to transform all technology from fossil fuelled to electric) should be done within 5 years along with intense planning for the following steps.
This may appear an ambitious program in comparison to business as usual, but it may still not prevent peak global mean surface temperature of 1.5°C for a decade or two - long enough to damage much of our existing settlement of the planet.

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More from @NickCowern

29 Apr
Highly significant that the two wealthy western countries with the worst problems of social inequality and deprivation - the US and UK - have accounted for nearly half of all global COVID-19 deaths to date.
I've been asked what evidence I've used to infer that this apparent correlation is "highly significant". Well, here is part of the answer. It's up-to-the-minute information that is directly relevant to the epidemiology of COVID-19.
Those in deprived areas have double death rates of affluent areas, new statistics show. I strongly suspect this explains slowly falling UK hospital admissions at a time when symptomatic cases in the country as a whole have plummeted from 2.1M to 350,000.…
Read 5 tweets
27 Apr
1/ Stunning insights from the NHS symptom-reporting app. It shows a dramatic decrease in live symptomatic cases, starting on 1st April, just 8 days after the UK lockdown began.
2/ The % decrease is vastly greater than the slight decrease in hospital admissions over the same period.
Why? Here's my proposed explanation: (THREAD)
3/ There are two key facets to this. First, a delay effect. Hospital admission comes maybe 1-2 weeks after symptoms appear. Thus the admissions curve probably peaks a week later than the symptomatic curve, just from this effect.
Read 12 tweets

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