I’m sceptical about lockdowns, but here are some bad anti-LD arguments:

- Comparing deaths/cases *under mitigation* with deaths/cases from other diseases, previous years, etc.

- A lot of the micro-level arguments about immune system & therapies promoted by non-specialists.
- Anyone who doesn’t acknowledge the geography point works both ways, so while LDs might be challenging for mainland Europe / USA, it’s plausible that they are right for small island nations.

- Anyone who slips between different metrics at their convenience (both sides do this).
- Any argument that claims this has only happened because public opinion has been misrepresented or manipulated. I don’t think it has. Tragically, many people don’t really value their own basic rights and freedoms (until it’s too late).

- Appeal to authority (Levitt, etc)
- The horrendous misrepresentations of the base rate fallacy which have been doing the rounds. Yes, false positives (and similar quirks) are a problem. No it’s not as simple as just applying Bayes rule to a couple of inputs.

- Anyone who says “I work with data for a living” 🥴
- Any claim that all pro-LD voices are unhinged, stupid or evil. It’s a very tricky problem, from micro medical level up to abstract moral philosophy of global response. It’s possible for 2 smart people to look at the same evidence in good faith and reach different conclusions.
- And finally, any account that consistently makes the same point over and over again for months on end, regardless of the data, is probably suffering from severe confirmation bias by now. Moral / analytical principles can be constant, but analysis of changing data should evolve.

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