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Sep 14, 2020 13 tweets 25 min read Read on X
@eastmed_NRG @Sigmalivecom @Sigmalive_EN @stevensonpeter8 @Marflo66036248 @PoulladosM @WSJ @BloombergNRG Lets talk about $NBL shareholder presentation points theyre making about how thorough they were at working through their options before landing a $CVX deal
@eastmed_NRG @Sigmalivecom @Sigmalive_EN @stevensonpeter8 @Marflo66036248 @PoulladosM @WSJ @BloombergNRG Since $NBL lay out their process i would like to see #elliottmanagement work through all those options with the $NBL board to see how thorough they were vs just justifying a rescue deal into their own pockets...
@eastmed_NRG @Sigmalivecom @Sigmalive_EN @stevensonpeter8 @Marflo66036248 @PoulladosM @WSJ @BloombergNRG considering the strategic value theyre saying was attributed to the east med assets of Noble doesnt this explanation seem a little light on details? shouldnt #elliottmanagement really focus on this in rebuilding the case for a standalone NBL with a new plan/team/prospect?
@eastmed_NRG @Sigmalivecom @Sigmalive_EN @stevensonpeter8 @Marflo66036248 @PoulladosM @WSJ @BloombergNRG Ultimately the board of $NBL is saying to shareholders "trust us we did all we could. Go read the S4. The best deal is on the table. vote it through" - those statements...especially no stone left unturned can really trip them up if Elliott does its homework properly
@eastmed_NRG @Sigmalivecom @Sigmalive_EN @stevensonpeter8 @Marflo66036248 @PoulladosM @WSJ @BloombergNRG if i were board/mngmt of Noble and i had such a remuneration package i would vote it through as a rescue deal and get my shareholders Chevron stock - every day of the week - and most shareholders being passive will agree and vote it through cause Chevron stock is better than NBL
@eastmed_NRG @Sigmalivecom @Sigmalive_EN @stevensonpeter8 @Marflo66036248 @PoulladosM @WSJ @BloombergNRG But if Elliott has a real plan that is actionable and Elliott comes with the capacity/credibility to see it through then things change. Its going to be tense and intense
@eastmed_NRG @Sigmalivecom @Sigmalive_EN @stevensonpeter8 @Marflo66036248 @PoulladosM @WSJ @BloombergNRG When $NBL talk about going through various monetisation options for East Med assets my guess is they ran a process to say they did so but wouldnt want to put too much effort in making the East Med work when really they want a $CVX "Whitewash"/Rescue deal
@eastmed_NRG @Sigmalivecom @Sigmalive_EN @stevensonpeter8 @Marflo66036248 @PoulladosM @WSJ @BloombergNRG What happens post close/if closes? new $CVX way going to really make the region work in the East Med? if thats their intention what are they doing to ensure things work out with the deal/operationally on the groundwork/stakeholder relations? Will $CVX rely on same NBL Team?
@eastmed_NRG @Sigmalivecom @Sigmalive_EN @stevensonpeter8 @Marflo66036248 @PoulladosM @WSJ @BloombergNRG Have to decode "limited buyer universe" - Theres a lot of truth in that. The East Med assets are not really for your average fund/private equity house/industrial player to take on. Its a complex situation. Therefore stakeholders that can make the East Med work are very limited...
@eastmed_NRG @Sigmalivecom @Sigmalive_EN @stevensonpeter8 @Marflo66036248 @PoulladosM @WSJ @BloombergNRG Therefore NBL will not have been able to extract the price they expected for East Med assets from any buyer. Especially not now. When that situation comes to bear the smart way to make all OK is to roll into a $CVX deal
@eastmed_NRG @Sigmalivecom @Sigmalive_EN @stevensonpeter8 @Marflo66036248 @PoulladosM @WSJ @BloombergNRG However - Things are changing in region and this surfaces the need for more strategic ownership of key assets across Israel - Egypt- Cyprus. #Elliottmanagement will understand this (id hope) and have a plan for what next. NBL ultimately ran out of road to $CVX advantage
@eastmed_NRG @Sigmalivecom @Sigmalive_EN @stevensonpeter8 @Marflo66036248 @PoulladosM @WSJ @BloombergNRG The other point id agree on is that if theyd sold the East Med the other business isnt sustainable given their capital structure and their recovery abilities. NBL board overplayed their hand and now seek refuge in a good enough under the circumstances $CVX deal
@eastmed_NRG @Sigmalivecom @Sigmalive_EN @stevensonpeter8 @Marflo66036248 @PoulladosM @WSJ @BloombergNRG ...but they were responsible for those circumstances...

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More from @EastmedC

Feb 16
Have been thinking about the #Cyprus #Chevron deal alot today. From the minister "We will be monitoring closely the fulfillment of the obligations of Chevron and its partners, on the basis of the approved Development and Production Plan and the Production Sharing Contract.”
For that section of the statement to "have some weight" in it - it must mean Cyprus put some short term milestones for Chevron to adhere to. Otherwise Cyprus has nothing to monitor for the next few years until Chevron decide. Rendering any monitoring msg in the statement baseless
Of course neither Chevron or Newmed would like to or need to divulge any milestone specifics but I don't see any other way Cyprus would legitimately revoke their notice of breach and give Chevron free reign unless with a next milestone to ensure progress and monitor against
Read 12 tweets
Oct 15, 2024
Great thread on recent news around potential of a #Cyprus #Israel #Energy plan - will go deep into it
Here's a translation of ynet article that sparked the media coverage of a potential Cyprus-Israel deal Image
Read 13 tweets
Sep 5, 2024
@chameleonGR People are missing some points. @GePapanastasiou put a 25m per year deal on the table to get to 125m needed. By time of spending that money when done properly the project is operational/de-risked and contributing to lowering of prices etc
@chameleonGR @GePapanastasiou 25m a year during the start up to operations is NOTHING relative to the cost of inaction and in any case Cyprus doesn't have a problem over the years continuing to leak money to corruption and yet now its playing "holier than Jesus christ" to safeguard spending of 125m???
@chameleonGR @GePapanastasiou You don't get many entrenched interests talking about the point that the risk of loss to Cyprus is marginal when considering the need to do it and the cost of inaction being much higher not only financially but more importantly strategically/regionally
Read 8 tweets
Aug 30, 2024
Will go deep into the trading of blows to analyse .... Image
Here's full article Image
Is there really a new plan or just an old ploy? Image
Read 11 tweets
Aug 3, 2024
Heres my views - starting to think through how this plays out for and with Cyprus. Interesting times. Would be great to see a BP-ADNOC-Cyprus success story. Its tough but somehow they can get there. sway.cloud.microsoft/QHozKB1dCUsfIf…
Image
Looking into how the BP-ADNOC-Cyprus talks all happening amongst momentous shifts in regionsway.cloud.microsoft/dnkjU2GhsarZWg…
being a "Cautious optimist" about thingssway.cloud.microsoft/Lmt4FcpB5Pu0C1…
Read 8 tweets
Oct 6, 2023
@business Interesting follow up on subject
Image
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@business We should take current news into consideration with analysis from 9th of June to see what was seen as writing on the wall from then and where things have now landed. Not much of a surprise really...
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@business back in June had run my own analysis of everything hinted at and directly mentioned in the MEES article of 9th June about BP ADNOC - Analysis here: sway.office.com/BWnqlB6Q3iknAR…
Read 17 tweets

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