BREAKING NEWS - I have received the very latest Irish death registration data, as of the end of August.

Here's a thread, with lots of charts πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡πŸ‘‡.

If you think this information is important, please give it a retweet!
I'm going to focus on the months from January to May.

There were allegedly 1,646 "Covid-19-related" deaths in this period (mostly in April).

Here's the raw data, added up for each year. Does 2020 stand out to you?
Now let's adjust March, April and May 2020 for future registrations, based on how many late registrations usually show up in the data.

I forecast another c. 450 deaths will be registered for these three months.

This still leaves total deaths below the same period in 2018.
The green line in this chart illustrates a mild start to 2020, followed by a bad April.

Three competing explanations for April:

1) closure of the healthcare system
2) seasonal patterns (mild recent winters, 2019 & 2020, unusually large numbers of vulnerable people)
3) Covid-19
Now let's make the analysis more meaningful by accounting for Ireland's growing population.

The data suggests that the death rate in Ireland from January to May 2020 was very possibly below average, compared to the prior five years.

2015, 2016, 2018 all appear more dangerous.
Indeed, 2019 is the most unusual year in the series, not 2020. 2019 was exceptionally mild.

This backs up the idea there may have been unusually large numbers of vulnerable people in early 2020.

If we exclude 2019 when calculating the average, 2020 is further below average:
To help you see why the official Covid-19 death toll is so questionable, here's the same chart if we deduct the 1,646 "Covid-19-related" deaths from January to May 2020.

If we do that, then 2020 becomes the outlier, with far fewer deaths even than the outlier 2019. Implausible!
I can also put the April 2020 result in context.

Despite the shutdown of the health service in April 2020, its death rate appears lower than both Jan 2017 and Jan 2018.

They were considered to be normal times - the media said almost nothing about death statistics back then!
CONCLUSION:

Despite the shutdown of the healthcare system, mild recent winters leaving more vulnerable people in the population, and the alleged presence of a virus that threatens a societal catastrophe, overall mortality in Ireland in 2020 has been normal.

END

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More from @GrahamNeary

17 Sep
If you asked your barber whether you needed a haircut, would you expect an unbiased answer?

And what would you expect, if you asked the vaccine industry whether the world needed more vaccines – would they say no?

It’s time to spill the beans, with a thread. Strap yourself in. Image
A few disclaimers.

Firstly, believing things which are in your economic self-interest doesn’t make you a bad person. It’s completely normal.

Like millions of others, I would benefit financially from the scrapping of Covid-19 rules. I have no hesitation in acknowledging that.
But what about the experts who hype the risks from Covid-19? What if they might benefit from the fear they generate?

We should still trust that they act in good faith, and we should recognise their expertise (we recognise our barber’s expertise in cutting hair, after all).
Read 18 tweets
2 Sep
I'm still unsatisfied with the Covid-19 narrative, so I've had another look at the data.

And I've stumbled across a factor which not enough people are talking about: the winter of 2018/2019.

The charts tell the story.

Thread.
Let me remind you that the official Covid-19 death toll in Ireland is 1,777 (this is admitted to include non-Covid deaths).

A more useful number is total excess deaths from March to July. This is c. 850-900.

Seasonal flu annually causes excess deaths of 200-500, up to 1,000.
That's why Leo Varadkar, himself a doctor, said it would be "a very pleasant surprise" if Covid-19 caused fewer than 1,000 deaths.

As total excess deaths are estimated to be only 850-900, including deaths caused by lockdown itself, Covid-19 was far less dangerous than expected.
Read 13 tweets
24 Aug
Time for another quick look at Irish mortality. This time, I'm going all the way back to 1989.

Do you remember the 1990s? Remember Oasis, Green Day and Blink-182?

Do you remember being afraid of death back then?

Thread.
I need to use estimates and assumptions, but I'll be upfront about them. Let me know what errors I've made. The picture for 2020 is still emerging and uncertain.

Sources - CSO (provisional from 2017), GRO (provisional for 2020), HIQA estimates for April-May 2020.

Let's begin!
Below are GRO death registrations as of end-July 2020.

Comparing the end-July and end-June GRO tables, I think total deaths from Jan to May 2020 were probably around 14,400.

HIQA's April-May estimates are a little higher than mine (a different data source, and also uncertain). ImageImage
Read 11 tweets
15 Aug
Let me tell you a story. It's about six passenger flights from Wuhan that led to an unprecedented global disaster.

These six flights help to explain why the entire world was gripped by fear, with consequences that we'll be living with for many years to come.

Thread.
In 2020, the world became convinced that a deadly coronavirus was plaguing the human race.

A virus that could kill nearly 1 out of every 100 people it infected, or so we were told.

Come with me, and I'll show you where that belief came from.
Remember that in March, Neil Ferguson of Imperial College London predicted 510,000 Covid-19 deaths in Britain and 2.2 million Covid-19 deaths in the US. Healthcare systems would be overwhelmed.

This could only be avoided by "non-pharmaceutical interventions" (lockdown, etc.) ImageImage
Read 16 tweets
11 Aug
I've gone deep into the mortality numbers for Ireland and Covid-19. This is what I've learned.

Thread.
The death toll in Ireland from Covid-19 is officially 1,773. But this includes people who died from other things and people who were presumed to have it.

We need to do better, to find out how many people were really killed by Covid-19.
Analysts for the Irish government counted death notices online and reckoned there were between 851 and 1290 excess deaths by mid-June, with the middle estimate being 1,072.
Read 17 tweets
8 May
Some observations on the faulty infection fatality rate assumptions which drove the push towards lockdown.

Ferguson's Imperial College paper, advocating lockdown, assumed an infection fatality rate in the UK of 0.9%.

Its source for this assumption was another paper by Ferguson.
This other paper admitted that there wasn't very good data available to estimate the threat posed by Covid-19.

To estimate IFR, you need to estimate how many infections there have been.

The best way to do that is with a randomised antibody test. Or as the paper said: Image
Since they didn't have an antibody test available, they used something else to estimate total infections.

They used the test for active infection (not the test for antibodies, or prior infection) that was used on people being repatriated from Wuhan. This is the PCR test. Image
Read 7 tweets

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