Willy Woo Profile picture
14 Sep, 6 tweets, 2 min read
Macro update:

Another impulse of coins changing hands has completed, the next directional move over the coming weeks is likely upwards. It's very unlikely we'll see any kind of a catastrophic dump in price from here.
BTW, the previous chart was an expansion of this tweet from over a week ago. "Local on-chain switching bullish"

I'm still cautious of another short term dump to fill the gap but so far it's looking like it's been front run for liquidity which is strongly bullish if we break resistance here. There's a lot of bids in the spot orderbooks wanting to snap up the gap in the mid-high 9000s.
Zooming out to the mid macro (months ahead), we're in a really nice zone of Difficulty Ribbon compression, post halvening (red verticals), this is quite a reliable indicator of bullishness.
And moving to the full macro picture here's RVT Ratio (very generally you can think of it as a PE Ratio for Bitcoin, a better version of my older NVT Ratio). Obviously we have a lot of room for growth in this cycle.
Overall, I'm not expecting any mega dump, some chance of smaller whipsaws in the short timeframes, resistance is teetering.

Not a bad time to get in if you're a spot investor, given the longer range macro. There's plenty of buy support below 10k, this is a buy the dip scenario.

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More from @woonomic

18 Sep
Some takeaways from @APompliano's interview with @michael_saylor, CEO of MicroStrategy, after their 38,250 BTC buy ($425m).

Plot goes: "I'm a good thinker and a large financial player, this what I found researching Bitcoin coming from outside of the industry"

Read on...

👇
Michael trained as a rocket scientist, MicroStrategy sells business intelligence software for large clients.

A very engaging interview. He reminded me of this character (The Big Short). Image
They had a $0.5b of spare cash on the books with no need to deploy it in the foreseeable future.

Meanwhile the assets you really want (real estate, ivy league education, etc) were inflating against their USD stockpile at a real rate of 7% per annum.
Read 12 tweets
16 Sep
Simple 128 Day MA back test since 2012.

1 BTC turns into 10.5 BTC.

Assumes spot selling to USD when crossing below MA and 0.2% fees.

I'm just answering the Q, not recommending HODLers trade.

You would have had to stomach a loss of up to 38% of your BTC at times doing this.
Correction. This is a 1x margin long-only strategy.
This is the correct model. Sell spot to USD when 128 DMA crosses under.

The original chart was a 1x margin long on BTC when crossing over. Few could have done that as margin trading was unavailable in the early days (unless you did it via a cash loan by traditional means).
Read 4 tweets
15 Sep
This is an on-point Q right now. Short answer is yes on-chain is relevant as whatever investors are doing, whether it dumps or pumps, for reason A, B or C, then it shows up on-chain.

Let's do a long form thread on this topic, let's call it "The history of BTC price correlation"
A couple of years ago Bitcoin was marketed as the new uncorrelated asset, thus fund managers really needed to have it as part of their portfolio else they would not have a portfolio that would be hedged for all situations.
BTC was uncorrelated because there was a firewall between traditional macro investors and Bitcoiners. That's to say cypherpunks, tech-heads, purveyors and consumers of illicit drugs, and die hard libertarians are NOT typically the guys moving money in macro markets.
Read 10 tweets
9 Aug
The Bitcoin 4 year bull/bear cycle is caused by sell pressure reduction every 4 years by the BTC halvening. That impulse creates a resonance, like a slosh of water in a bath tub when you push it timed just right. The magic happens at the impulse.
How far that bullish impulse runs for is determined by specifics in each macro cycle, so you can't measure it from peak to peak, it's impulse to impulse. Some pundits say we are lengthening in cycles by measuring peak to peak, this is curve fitting devoid of fundamentals.
As the sell pressure reduction from each halvening cycle reduces, the impulse has less strength. Eventually the scale of halvenings become insignificant, Bitcoin's 4 year cycle will start to transition into the resonance of traditional markets (~10 years).
Read 4 tweets
31 Jul
A long since since I did one of these... time for a BTC macro cycle update, starring on-chain and network data!

With the current break to 11k, I'm relatively confident last months model is working on queue, we're at the start of the "main bull phase".

365 day on-chain RSI (private chart not yet publicly available) shows the compression at the early phase of the bull cycle nearing completion, I'm expecting RSI expansion that typifies the main bull season run starting Q4 2020 into 2021. ("main bull phase" labeled in the chart)
The mempool, i.e. the network queue for unprocessed transactions, is spiking back into bullish territory. This chart tracks memory usage, mempool by transaction count is in fact at an all time high for this macro cycle.
Read 9 tweets
21 May
Is 40 BTC worth of coins moving from 2009 ...

Bearish? YES

Bullish? Also YES

Significant? NO**

**Assuming they are not Satoshi's coins.
Since coins moving is ultimately a movement of capital between investors, you want to know who's the "smarter money". Most likely the investor with the longest time in the market is the smarter one, they sell near local macro tops. (Locally bearish)
Old coins moving increases both realised cap (orange) and the CVDD price floor model (pink) for valuation.

When old investors sell out of their sub $1 coins, it allows for the price floor to increase. New buyers capitulate at much higher prices. (Long term bullish)
Read 5 tweets

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