Since a lot of people are asking about the election and how I see it playing out here is my best guess on where and how this happens
As I have been saying for months there is almost 0.0 chance either side will concede an election defeat for the reasons outlined below but the ramifications for each side are different depending on how it plays out.
The reason stimulus was never passed was due to national mail in voting. It is the same reason why it is still not passed. HOWEVER I do foresee something being passed if the stock market craters or evictions take off into October. But that’s another discussion at this point
A few baseline facts as reported:

1. Rs will vote in person on Election Day and mail in ballots will be less utilized
2. Ds will vote in opposite proportions
3. We truly have no idea how Independents will phys vote

Let’s also concede for argument Ds win natl. popular vote
Let’s also understand that EACH STATE has separate procedures for when & how mail in ballots must be received, sent, & counted That is too in depth for this thread other than to say the laws ARE NOT the same in every state and are ripe for manipulation and for causing pure chaos
Lets start with scenario 1 which I believe is least likely but would be most beneficial to the country in terms of preventing chaos. This is Joe Biden winning on ELECTION NIGHT. Given that post election date mail in votes SHOULD skew D this should lead to an uncontested result
Moving on because that scenario just isn’t all that likely given how tribal this country is. MUCH more likely is a Trump win on election night and Biden catching up or passing him in certain states DAYS or WEEKS later so let’s walk through how this plays out IMO
As a reminder these problems will exist in EVERY state but will only matter in a select few that the parties care about — namely FL PA, NC, CO, MI, MN, OH, TX, and AZ to varying degrees.
My best guess is that Trump will win on election night in the electoral college but those victories will begin to solidify and disappear as mail in ballots are counted in each state.
My thought is that each side is going to concede results in certain states in a 1 for 1 trade off behind the scenes and EVERYTHING will come down to Florida. It makes perfect sense. Republican gov. Dem mayors and elected officials in Miami, broward, palm beach & Orlando.
Given battle over Covid policies. The Florida controversies over reporting COVID data. The haphazard and scattershot reopening of the state & prior claims of voter fraud & ballot harvesting from previous elections we can just start and stop with Florida as deciding the election
This will likely play out Bush v Gore style with similar court rulings until we reach the SJC. Hence why JOHN ROBERTS is the most powerful man in America no one has started talking about yet. The court will be divided 4-4 and he IS the decider of the election as the swing justice
This is why Ds wanted a uniform mail in voting standard in the Cares Act & why they passed it in the Heroes Act & why there will be no stimulus without riots or a stock market collapse. A haphazard standard across states provides fertile ground for challenging the results by Rs
So given that is the legal and electoral scenario how does it play out in practice IMO. That’s the scary part and where things can get very problematic for Trump.
ONE MAJOR thing that our Constitution provides is the right to vote. This is not disputable. This is why there is a fight over Voter ID laws et al. A fight over whether to count votes bc of when or how they are mailed or certification dates has SERIOUS Constitutional issues.
An arbitrary date for mailing them in or for certification at the STATE level WILL be challenged when it comes to national election. My guess is the brief is already written. IMO the right to vote is sacrosanct and anything that undermines this right is subject to strict scrutiny
Thus my opinion is that John Roberts interpretation of the laws will skew TOWARDS COUNTING all BALLOTS regardless of when/how mailed and/or verified and that Trump WILL LOSE post ruling as his position will be to deny citizens the right to vote.
The problems here are obvious

1. Without a national mail in voting standard and voter ID laws we have an obvious fraud problem upcoming given how I believe SCJ Roberts will rule
2. Will Trump accept the results if Roberts rules this way?
3. What will Trump voters do as results come in that likely start to shift the result to Biden?

4. More importantly what will TRUMP encourage voters to do while the legal process plays out and what will they do? More civil unrest?

5. It is likely that a Const crisis awaits
Here is the GIANT issue no one has raised that I have seen. I believe the legal process WILL play out as described. BUT that the ruling to flush out all of the details on voter fraud and counting ballots WILL TAKE LONGER than the Constitution provides.
The SJC can only provide the MECHANISM for HOW to count the ballots and interpret the laws on what should/should not be counted. The votes STILL will need to be verified and counted. Who supervises this? How long does it take? How many more court challenges are there post ruling
My point is I don’t know that we will know the winner before mid January and I don’t know that Trump if he loses will accept the result. And I don’t know if Biden loses that he will stop legal challenges if votes are attempted to be suppressed.
The GOOD NEWS? I think when this entire fiasco is over should we survive it as a Republic— BOTH parties will DEMAND voter ID/Verification as a result. It’s preposterous that we don’t have it now. This fiasco will ensure it happens forever forward. That’s my final prediction.
If anyone wants me to dive into further detail on any of the points raised shoot me a note. Happy to offer opinions. And yes I am a licensed lawyer so none of this is twitter speculation

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19 Sep
Lots to discuss here. For the “gap filling” listen to @Darky999 Sunday night around 10ET. If you have questions PM me so Chris and I can try to address. This election and the motivations of each party just shifted even more drastically but there is TIME component that is huge
The death of RBG ensures that bases of both sides will be HIGHLY motivated to make sure that “their justice”gets appointed. While Roberts & on occasion Gorsuch will side with more liberal positions adding another conservative justice swings policy in USA for 30 years. BIG STAKES
4 intersecting issues:

1. Will there be true vote for SJC nom (other than a show vote) prior to election
2. Will they be able to pass a stimulus bill —knowing Ds won’t cave on national mail in voting procedures now
3. Continuing resolution(CR) by 9/30 or gov shutdown
4. Timing
Read 25 tweets
27 Aug
News flash. The Boston Tea party and American Revolution were over UNFAIR ECONOMIC CONDITIONS that benefitted the few over the many.
News flash the Civil War really started because the southern economy was in shambles and was losing ground to the North. Slavery and race issues were the justification for the economic aspects. This triggers you? Deal with it
News flash. WW2 started due to wait for it — ECONOMIC issues that led to the rise of fascists and dictators and strong men every where.
Read 8 tweets
8 Aug
Ok here we go round 2. I hope everyone has drinks at the ready while reading this because it is reality check time. Let’s get some basic facts out of the way about the franchise sector to put some context around all of what I have been posting.
It is estimated that franchises support 13.2 million jobs and are responsible for 1.6 trillion (6%)of US total GDP. In addition 1 in 7 US businesses are a franchise. Many don’t realize that these franchises are owned & operated by individuals and are NOT owned by the Franchisor
In most instances the franchisee only owns 1 or 2 units. In short the business is both their job AND source of income. It is likely the UE numbers and household income numbers could be EVEN WORSE than what is being reported because of this
Read 20 tweets
1 Aug
Stiff drink time. For those new, here is my background. I am a lawyer by trade but never practiced. I own and operate a consulting company the end goal of which is to set up & provide loans through multiple funding channels to franchisees of large and small chains nationally.
The chains I work with many of you will be familiar with —dominos, jersey mikes, massage envy, European wax center, the joint, club Pilates, jimmy johns, wingstop, Orangetheory, moes southwest. And many others. Point is I have BROAD spectrum national exposure to many industries
The banks I work with are SBA, conventional lenders who service smaller loans under 2mm and generally smaller operators of these franchise systems, and then larger banks who provide loans to larger operators from 2-50mm. I’m short — 20+ banks across ALL spectrum of SME lending
Read 24 tweets

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