Thread by @vmyths

"Cybersecurity Winter Is Coming"

Let's begin with an oversimplified view of the 2008 housing market crash:

Hedge fund manager John Paulson made a fortune betting against Wall Street's insane belief for an INFINITE annual +14% housing climb

Cybersecurity has enjoyed non-stop growth since the #antivirus industry coalesced in 1988. The Internet bubble's burst didn't even slow us down; in fact, the #antivirus industry saw it as a golden opportunity to prop up then-fledgling trade magazines!

Cybersecurity barely flinched when global markets collapsed in 2008. "The only survivors," we told our bosses, "will be the ones who keep up their cyber guard during their recovery." And they bought it! Hook, line, and sinker!

The 9/11 U.S. attack, and the 7/7 Britian attack, and the 2007 Estonia cyber attack, and the 2016 U.S. elections, and the 2020 U.S. elections, and etc. have assured us we'll see INFINITE annual growth in cybersecurity

Right?

RIGHT?!?

"Infinite" SEEMS right, doesn't it? Our trade rags run headlines wailing of "a million unfilled jobs" in #cybersecurity. We tell college students about unending growth in our field. Pundits brag about the militarization of cyberspace...

We fantasize about hackers remotely crashing cars on busy streets. We fantasize @US_CYBERCOM will give us officer commissions and high security clearances: one weekend a month, two weeks a year, and poof you're part of the "in" crowd!

Decades of unstunted growth in #cybersecurity has turned our incessant fantasies into a terrifying belief: that our growth is INFINITE. That we will climb in revenue & jobs FOREVER.

And yet ... history over the millenia tells us ALL spending waxes & wanes for all sorts of reasons. Plagues alone stymied any number of military conflicts & conquests from the ancient Peloponnesian War up to World War I.

Global economic depressions have plauged us throughout history and gutted whole industries in their wake. We've no *real* reason to think #cybersecurity is fundamentally different. And yet we do! "Cybersecurity is immortal, Rob!"

Even with global industries RIGHT NOW scared for their futures post-COVID, no one honestly believes #cybersecurity will feel a pinch of pain. Hell, many folks now revel in the notion that #WFH may open up more job opportunities for us!

And that's why we view #cybersecurity as sacrosanct: "Rob, the janitors and all of HR will be laid off before anyone comes for the lowliest member on my #DFIR team..."

But at some point we WILL face an industry-wide gutting.

All industries — I repeat, ALL industries — wax & wane. And when ours DOES wane, you'll find me there on the sidelines

standing with John Paulson

saying "oh, you thought #cybersecurity's climb was INFINITE?"

@threadreaderapp please unroll