THREAD ON HOW A BLUE OHIO ENDS THE ELECTION, AND THE DRAMA

50 days to go. And yes, there are still folks out there dismissing the importance & golden opportunity to turn Ohio blue in 50 days.

So let me remind folks why 1) Ohio is winnable & 2) winning Ohio ends it

1/
Some people like to stare at the map from '16 (see above tweet), and conclude that Dems just can't win Ohio

Others like to talk to a few white male voters somewhere in Ohio & conclude, "see, it's Trump country."

And when they do that, they are making two big mistakes:

2/
A major shift has occurred in Ohio since 2016.

And by staring at that old map, and only talking to a few white men, folks miss it entirely.

And that shift is that the large suburbs of our state have been on a major trajectory to the center and left for about a decade...

3/
...and it's been driven largely by women.

Trump has dramatically accelerated that shift.

To actually see that shift, you must do two things, but neither is very difficult.

First, you must look at Ohio maps AFTER 2016.

Second, you actually must talk to women.

4/
If you do those things, you will see the shift.

First, you see it in the fact that Sherrod Brown won reelection in '18 by even more than he did in '12 (Obama was on the ballot!) Why? Big numbers in the suburbs

Second, Ohio Dems hadn't flipped a single statehouse district...

5/
...all decade. Gerrymandering made most seats unwinnable, until....

2018, when we flipped six House seats and a State Senate seat.

Where? Suburbs.

Why? Women -- voting, running, and winning.

6/
Overall, on the strength of that shift, the breakdown in statehouse races was 50%-49%, and the breakdown in our US House races was 52%-48%. (gerrymandering masks that fact, creating supermajorities for the GOP).

We also won both Supreme Court seats.

A red Ohio? Nope.

7/
Now we didn't win everything we wanted in 2018. On the strength of directly appealing to women (and a Kasich endorsement), Gov. DeWine did better in the suburbs than Trump, so he held on to win by 3.7.

But even then, our '18 Senate/Gov result (+7/-3.5) was better..
...than other swing states, such as Arizona (+2.4/-14) and Florida (-/-)

But back to the suburban swing. This isn't some rounding error. It's the largest voting bloc in Ohio, & the fastest growing voting bloc

And it's gone from being the GOP base a decade ago to blue now.

9/
Now, it's time to look at another map.

2019.

Did the trend continue?

Um, hell yeah it did. In local races across the state, we saw wins in previously GOP suburbs. New mayors. New councilmembers. New council majorities.

All over.

10/
Take a look at Reynoldsburg, a long-time GOP suburb of Columbus.

Democrats won every race on the ballot, from Mayor to Law Director to Council, including making history by electing 3 phenomenal Black women to the ballot.

11/

dispatch.com/news/20191110/…
Or look at Cuyahoga Falls, an Akron suburb. There, Ds took a long-time GOP Council, won every contested seat & now it stands at 9-2 D.

Or Wyoming, which voted for Bush twice. The top 5 vote getters were the endorsed Dems

Or Westerville.

And so on

12/

ohiodems.org/icymi-in-2019-…
To be clear, the suburbs are only 1 bloc in OH.

Think of it as a 3-legged stool.

To win Ohio, we must first & foremost engage our base--our largest cities and counties--to inspire the higher, most inspired turnout we've ever seen

This is job 1 in our current effort

13/
The good news is we are currently seeing strong energy in our core cities & counties in early vote

Record numbers of applications, in fact, w far higher % of the requests coming from Ds than past years. Higher % than some other swing states

And we are just getting started

14/
And we must narrow the gap in rural & small towns across Ohio. The 75-25 loss in 2016 was unacceptably high

But given the woeful economic picture in Ohio in 2019 (the worst jobs year since 2009, w losses in manufacturing and construction), we saw rural gains in '19 too

15/
In Ironton, Norwalk, Coshocton and Archbold, all small towns Trump won 60-40 in 2016, Dem mayors defeated GOP incumbents by 60-40 or better

In Ironton, our 28-year old Democratic ousted the incumbent 70-30!

Why? Like the others, he was change

16/

ohiodems.org/icymi-in-2019-…
So with cities surging, and the gap in rural Ohio narrowing, a shift in the suburbs flips the third leg of the stool.

The former base of the Ohio GOP is now toss-up or blue.

All in all, this is why most of this year, polls have consistently shown Ohio to be tight...

17/
....even without big national $$ seen in other swing states.

So w 50 days to go, we're in reach like a lot of other states. But why win Ohio versus other swing states?

Not only does a blue Ohio end the Trump presidency, it ends the drama...

Why?

18/

cleveland.com/politics/2019/…
It's clear Trump will contest the result of any close election.

He will seize on any delay to snap victory out of the jaws of clear defeat.

It could become one of the most challenging times in our country's history.

And all of this makes Ohio's even more critical.

19/
Why?

1) from an electoral college standpoint, a blue Ohio ends it. Everyone knows it. Ask Karl Rove.

2) unlike many states, the vast majority of our early votes are counted & released early (by 8 p.m.) on election night (those still in the mail are announced later)

20/
3) We have a GOP Sec. of State and a GOP Governor here, who have both made clear that Ohio's early vote will not and has never been susceptible to fraud.

So Trump can not claim "Dems rigged" an Ohio loss.

21/
Add it all up...w 50 days to go, the data makes clear that Ohio is less red than we've been any year since 2006/2008.

The polls remain tied after much Trump spending and little spending by national Dems

And a win here is an early win, and one Trump can't claim was rigged

22/
Bottom line: win here and it's done. The election.

And the drama.

Please help us make it so by giving here:

secure.actblue.com/donate/ohdems

END

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More from @DavidPepper

24 Sep
THREAD

I've said it privately, I've tweeted it some, but I'm going to lay it out bluntly. Please listen.

Too many insiders continue to categorize certain states as "tipping point" states as if we're in a normal political environment.

But we're not in a normal moment...

1/
...as Trump reminded us again tonight.

The new reality is that Trump will seize any close and dragged out election result to deny an election loss. To challenge it all the way to the Supreme Court.

And the result of such an effort by Trump, Barr & their lackeys...

2/
....should scare every last American who cares about this nation's future.

But still, too many continue to approach this election as if success is winning the "tipping point" states that lock in a close victory.

But of course achieving this goal simply means...

3/
Read 12 tweets
18 Sep
The @clevelanddotcom Ed Board is not mincing words: "LaRose has used the power of his office improperly to make it harder for voters in Cuyahoga County and the state’s other urban counties to cast their ballots."

1/

cleveland.com/opinion/2020/0…
LaRose is "overruling local elections officials on their bipartisan decisions about how best to keep elections orderly and safe, & ballots secure. LaRose is the one upending balance in the system and creating the litigation he has said he wanted to avoid."

2/
"But with less than three weeks to go before early voting starts, LaRose needs to explain actions that make it harder for elections officials -- by law, two Republicans and two Democrats running election boards in every county in Ohio -- to plan ahead and do their jobs."

3/
Read 5 tweets
17 Sep
W no evidence to speak of, the @ohiogop accused the judge handling our drop box case (he had granted their motion to intervene) of “collusion.”

It was stunningly inappropriate.

We filed a motion today seeking a show cause order for why they should not be held in contempt. Image
The judge has handled the case professionally throughout, and treated all sides fairly.

His decision was well-reasoned and thorough.

He gave LaRose the opportunity to follow his decision without an injunction, which was beyond fair.

Then he issued an injunction today,
after LaRose refused to follow the decision.

Even then, he granted the stay LaRose requested, assuming he appeals.

The attack on the judge was beyond the pale. And one of the tweets was RT’d by the GOP chair, herself an attorney.

While the statement and tweets have been...
Read 4 tweets
16 Sep
BREAKING: After Ohio’s Sec. of State refused to abide by the declaratory judgment from yesterday, the Franklin County Court just ORDERED him to do so:

“The Preliminary Injunction now issued by this court is as follows:
The Secretary of State, his agents, employees...”

1/
“....attorneys and all those persons in active concert or participation with him who receive actual notice of this order, must immediately cease enforcing the limitation of one absentee ballot drop box per county set out in the Secretary’s August 12, 2020 Directive 2020-16..”

2/
“...or any variant of that Directive imposing any arbitrary limitation on the number or location of secure drop boxes that individual county boards of election may employ for the November 3, 2020 general election

Further, the Secretary shall not issue any new Directive or..”

3/
Read 6 tweets
15 Sep
THREAD

The court walks through the arbitrary and irregular way in which the "drop box ban" came to be, beginning with the request for a legal opinion from Ohio's AG:

"In seeking a formal Opinion, the Secretary conceded that the answer to whether “there may be more than..."

1/
"one secure ballot ‘drop box’ in a county *** is not clear.”

No Opinion issued.

Three weeks later on August 11 the Secretary’s staff sent an email message stating he was “withdrawing this request for a formal Opinion of the Attorney General...."

2/
"... The following day the Secretary issued “Directive 2020-16.

Directive 2020-16 was adopted without any public notice, hearing, or comment. Although in seeking the Attorney General’s opinion three weeks earlier the Secretary acknowledged he had recently been asked..."

3/
Read 5 tweets
15 Sep
MORE from today's big win on drop boxes:

"It is readily apparent that the words “deliver” and “transmitted to” were used interchangeably by the General Assembly. It is also plain that delivery or transmission of an absentee ballot can be accomplished using a drop box..."

1/
"...that puts the ballot securely into the custody of the director of a board of elections, or by actually handing the ballot over to the director face-to-face, or delivering it to his or her staff. No statute says that delivery must occur with only one box per county...."

2/
"...No statute says that delivery would be improper to a drop box controlled by a board and placed at a safe location separate and apart from the main board office. The statute is silent on such matters. The Secretary cannot slip new words into the law...."

3/
Read 6 tweets

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