Thread by @DavidPepper

THREAD ON HOW A BLUE OHIO ENDS THE ELECTION, AND THE DRAMA

50 days to go. And yes, there are still folks out there dismissing the importance & golden opportunity to turn Ohio blue in 50 days.

So let me remind folks why 1) Ohio is winnable & 2) winning Ohio ends it

1/

https://twitter.com/sahilkapur/status/1305219878362771457

Some people like to stare at the map from '16 (see above tweet), and conclude that Dems just can't win Ohio

Others like to talk to a few white male voters somewhere in Ohio & conclude, "see, it's Trump country."

And when they do that, they are making two big mistakes:

2/

A major shift has occurred in Ohio since 2016.

And by staring at that old map, and only talking to a few white men, folks miss it entirely.

And that shift is that the large suburbs of our state have been on a major trajectory to the center and left for about a decade...

3/

...and it's been driven largely by women.

Trump has dramatically accelerated that shift.

To actually see that shift, you must do two things, but neither is very difficult.

First, you must look at Ohio maps AFTER 2016.

Second, you actually must talk to women.

4/

If you do those things, you will see the shift.

First, you see it in the fact that Sherrod Brown won reelection in '18 by even more than he did in '12 (Obama was on the ballot!) Why? Big numbers in the suburbs

Second, Ohio Dems hadn't flipped a single statehouse district...

5/

...all decade. Gerrymandering made most seats unwinnable, until....

2018, when we flipped six House seats and a State Senate seat.

Where? Suburbs.

Why? Women -- voting, running, and winning.

6/

Overall, on the strength of that shift, the breakdown in statehouse races was 50%-49%, and the breakdown in our US House races was 52%-48%. (gerrymandering masks that fact, creating supermajorities for the GOP).

We also won both Supreme Court seats.

A red Ohio? Nope.

7/

Now we didn't win everything we wanted in 2018. On the strength of directly appealing to women (and a Kasich endorsement), Gov. DeWine did better in the suburbs than Trump, so he held on to win by 3.7.

But even then, our '18 Senate/Gov result (+7/-3.5) was better..

...than other swing states, such as Arizona (+2.4/-14) and Florida (-/-)

But back to the suburban swing. This isn't some rounding error. It's the largest voting bloc in Ohio, & the fastest growing voting bloc

And it's gone from being the GOP base a decade ago to blue now.

9/

Now, it's time to look at another map.

2019.

Did the trend continue?

Um, hell yeah it did. In local races across the state, we saw wins in previously GOP suburbs. New mayors. New councilmembers. New council majorities.

All over.

10/

Take a look at Reynoldsburg, a long-time GOP suburb of Columbus.

Democrats won every race on the ballot, from Mayor to Law Director to Council, including making history by electing 3 phenomenal Black women to the ballot.

11/

dispatch.com/news/20191110/…

Or look at Cuyahoga Falls, an Akron suburb. There, Ds took a long-time GOP Council, won every contested seat & now it stands at 9-2 D.

Or Wyoming, which voted for Bush twice. The top 5 vote getters were the endorsed Dems

Or Westerville.

And so on

12/

ohiodems.org/icymi-in-2019-…

To be clear, the suburbs are only 1 bloc in OH.

Think of it as a 3-legged stool.

To win Ohio, we must first & foremost engage our base--our largest cities and counties--to inspire the higher, most inspired turnout we've ever seen

This is job 1 in our current effort

13/

The good news is we are currently seeing strong energy in our core cities & counties in early vote

Record numbers of applications, in fact, w far higher % of the requests coming from Ds than past years. Higher % than some other swing states

And we are just getting started

14/

And we must narrow the gap in rural & small towns across Ohio. The 75-25 loss in 2016 was unacceptably high

But given the woeful economic picture in Ohio in 2019 (the worst jobs year since 2009, w losses in manufacturing and construction), we saw rural gains in '19 too

15/

In Ironton, Norwalk, Coshocton and Archbold, all small towns Trump won 60-40 in 2016, Dem mayors defeated GOP incumbents by 60-40 or better

In Ironton, our 28-year old Democratic ousted the incumbent 70-30!

Why? Like the others, he was change

16/

ohiodems.org/icymi-in-2019-…

So with cities surging, and the gap in rural Ohio narrowing, a shift in the suburbs flips the third leg of the stool.

The former base of the Ohio GOP is now toss-up or blue.

All in all, this is why most of this year, polls have consistently shown Ohio to be tight...

17/

....even without big national $$ seen in other swing states.

So w 50 days to go, we're in reach like a lot of other states. But why win Ohio versus other swing states?

Not only does a blue Ohio end the Trump presidency, it ends the drama...

Why?

18/

cleveland.com/politics/2019/…

It's clear Trump will contest the result of any close election.

He will seize on any delay to snap victory out of the jaws of clear defeat.

It could become one of the most challenging times in our country's history.

And all of this makes Ohio's even more critical.

19/

Why?

1) from an electoral college standpoint, a blue Ohio ends it. Everyone knows it. Ask Karl Rove.

2) unlike many states, the vast majority of our early votes are counted & released early (by 8 p.m.) on election night (those still in the mail are announced later)

20/

3) We have a GOP Sec. of State and a GOP Governor here, who have both made clear that Ohio's early vote will not and has never been susceptible to fraud.

So Trump can not claim "Dems rigged" an Ohio loss.

21/

Add it all up...w 50 days to go, the data makes clear that Ohio is less red than we've been any year since 2006/2008.

The polls remain tied after much Trump spending and little spending by national Dems

And a win here is an early win, and one Trump can't claim was rigged

22/

Bottom line: win here and it's done. The election.

And the drama.

Please help us make it so by giving here:

secure.actblue.com/donate/ohdems

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