If you're wondering why election risk is causing $VIX futures to peak in Oct rather than Nov, it's because VIX futures, like $VIX are based on $SPX option prices with 30 days until expiration. Oct $VIX future will settle on Oct 21st based on Nov 20 SPX option prices that AM.
Since the election will be 2 weeks off at that point those option prices will still reflect election uncertainty. Nov VIX futures are currently priced lower than Oct futures because Dec 17th options are priced cheaper than you'd typically expect.
Normally option prices carry a square root of time-based premium based on their time until expiration, so even though the Dec VIX price based on Dec SPX option prices is higher than the Nov price, it's lower than you'd expect with the normal time premium. sixfigureinvesting.com/2014/06/volati…
This lower price reflects the market's current perception that uncertainty will be lower at that point, over a month after the election.
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This morning Barclays resumed the share creation process on $VXX, the 6 month fiasco is over. VXX's behavior will return to its previous self, but it remains to be seen how much of the former 60 million/day volume returns. Probably not all of it...
Overall Barclays will likely pay SEC a large fine (e.g, $100M) for the screwup,which impacted over 3000 securities (mostly structured products), but it appears that in the specific case of VXX that Barclays didn't pay compensation to anyone. The fine print won...
So far I haven't heard of any class action suits. Objectively those institutions/investors long VXX weren't harmed, VXX always traded above its fair value during this time, but the damage to those effectively short $VXX was likely in the $100M range.
Yes, I've fallen down the $VXX rat hole, but it's a fun place to be... It's a game theory problem with lots of potentially different players, some of which (e.g., the VXX perma-longs) are probably in denial, not even looking at their brokerage account balances.
Other players include the shorts (who might get their positions yanked right before VXX creations resume) & Create-To-Lend players who bought VXX, hedged it with VIX futures & lend their share to the shorts. They are likely sitting on huge profits & collecting fat borrow fees.
The market makers are always in the mix too, they are almost certainly the smartest players. I assume they have always eliminated any possible arb opportunity. Right now we know that best case VXX won't start working correctly until sometime after Sept 12th.
Thinking about a nightmare scenario associated with $VXX's resumption of share creations in Sept/Oct. VXX been available to short since start of this fiasco in March. This is surprising since parties loaning out shares are sitting on a 30% premium that will go away #VXX #$VXX
I suspect most of these lenders are Create-To-Lend (CTL) operations. They bought VXX shares, near-perfectly hedge them with VIX futures or short $VIXY and lend out the shares to shorts for a sweet borrow fee (last I hear at the rate of 30% per year).
When VXX's premium appeared in late march the CTLs would have seen a massive paper profit materialize, VXX +30% and their short VIX futures positions unchanged. Some may have cashed out at that point, but why not collect huge borrow fees now and then sell at the last minute?
When Barclays stopped $VXX's share creation (SC) process on March 14th the initial price action was predictable. Tons of people were short VXX & without SCs there's no way for Authorized Participants (AP) that normally use arbitrage to keep VXX trading close to its NAV price.
VXX's price quickly climbed 30% over its NAV price. This might have been fueled by A. Shorts covering positions, either voluntarily or via margin calls, or B. speculators betting on/causing A. However, what happened next was different than previous instances of SC closures
For example in the $TVIX or $DGAZ debacles. sixfigureinvesting.com/2022/07/arbitr… Instead this time the premium declined to a relatively stable 5%-10% level. Also, unlike previous episodes, VXX shares continued to be available to short & borrow costs were not outrageous--10% to 20% annual.
Barclays has released information about its rescission offer for $VXX, $GAS, and other ETNs. sec.gov/Archives/edgar… Offer will start Aug 1 and terminate 30 business days later on 12-Sept. As expected, retail investors are NOT eligible.
It doesn't appear that share creations have resumed for the ETNs, at least for VXX, so these products are still trading at a premium to their real, index based value (IV price), so buyers beware! For lots more information on how share creations work see sixfigureinvesting.com/2022/07/arbitr…
The rescission offer impacts 3000 different products, so it's understandable that they missed their July 1 target date for releasing info on the offer.
Well, it looks like we know the root cause of Barclays halt of share creations for $VXX & $OIL. These funds are Exchange Traded Notes (ETNs) which are a subtype of something called Structured Notes. Structured notes are unsecured bonds, issued, and backed by banks.
The "structured" part of these notes refers to the issuing bank's ability to tie the value of these bonds to a wide variety of very unbond-like financial constructs. In the case of OIL & VXX, indexes tied to periodically rolled portfolios of Oil and VIX futures.
These ETNs, with their stock-like characteristics, make it significantly easier, and in cases possible, for traders to participate in these markets rather than directly buy/sell the futures The ETNs sometimes have tax advantages also.