AukeHoekstra Profile picture
Sep 14, 2020 9 tweets 3 min read Read on X
New degrowth paper is way off on electric trucks.
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
ht @ErikwimDuring

Paper claims eTrucks with range of 800 km need batteries heavier than the allowed weight for truck+load in the EU today.

That's ~10x too much.

Quick takedown thread.
Here's the quote I'm reacting to.
(I've not dissected the rest of the paper.)

Let me calculate for you why this is bollox.
How big is a battery for 800km?

I had a couple of master students study the issue and we concluded that with aero fairings and low rolling resistance tires, the average energy use per km would be close to 1.3 kWh/km.

So 800 km range means around 1 MWh battery.
Right now, cells are about 260 Wh/kg.
Experts expect 400 Wh/kg in 2025. greencarcongress.com/2020/05/202005…

Add 30% weight for the battery pack =>
~300 Wh/kg =>
0.0003 MWh/kg.

So 1 MWh weights 1/0.0003=3333 kg.

That's >10x less than the paper claims!
The theoretical maximum energy density of lithium air batteries is over 10 kWh/kg: 10x lighter still.

Combine it with a 3x more efficient electric motor and its lighter than gasoline/km.

That's not happening anytime soon but it shows you the 2025 value is far from outlandish.
As we showed in a recent paper, the drivetrain of an electric vehicle can be about 3000 kg lighter.

That means:
ALMOST NO ADDITIONAL WEIGHT FOR AN ELECTRIC TRUCK IN 2025.

researchgate.net/publication/33…
Of course we are not there yet so I'm glad the the EU added an allowance of 2000 kg to zero emission trucks.

By the way: trucks are usually volume constrained (the container is full) and not weight constrained (the container is too heavy) which is why hydrogen has a problem.
Before I wrap up: I agree with the writers that we should limit our resource use and that our amount of travel and how we travel is wasteful.

But I am sick and tired of degrowth proponents that bend the facts in order for their dogma to become truth. That doesn't solve anything.
Conclusion: well designed modern low emission heavy eTrucks with 800 km of range are less than 2 tonnes (5%) heavier than diesel equivalents.

They will become LIGHTER around 2025-2030.

Don't let any degrowth proponent using heavily outdated literature tell you otherwise.

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More from @AukeHoekstra

Aug 13
Great to see more and more attention for flexible grid pricing.

We must say goodbye to the "copper plate" that offers free power everywhere and every time. It's hideously expensive and outdated.

What we need is smart flexibility.
🧵
The underlying reason is that the costs of different components of the energy system changed:

Some remained high (e.g. pylons, fossil & nuclear)

Some plummeted (e.g. solar, wind, batteries, EVs & inverters)

Some became possible at all (e.g. measuring & steering in real time)
So now we should make good use of these new, clean, abundant and affordable options, even if it means doing things a bit differently than before.

So what should we do different regarding grid congestion pricing?
Read 20 tweets
Jul 28
Some are angry about the "anti-Christian depiction of the last supper" at the Olympic Opening ceremony. (@elonmusk and @realDonaldTrump among others)

A Dutch art historian explains it's not the last supper but a Dutch painting of the Olympic gods.
And I explain what I loved.
🧵
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Original Dutch thread here. I just translated it.


@WSchoonenberg shows that the "tableau vivant" (living painting) is depicting "The Feast of the Gods" by Jan van Bijlert, from 1635.
Image
The heathen Gods have gathered on mount Olympus for a feast. Sun god Apollo is recognizable by his halo, Bacchus (Dionysus) by the grapes, Neptune (Poseidon) by his trident, Diana (Artemis) by the moon, Venus (Aphrodite) by Cupid.


Image
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Read 24 tweets
Jul 9
With new batteries solar and wind are not only faster and cleaner, but also cheaper.

I'm estimating:
$0.08/kWh for PV+batteries
$0.07/kWh for wind+batteries

@skorusARK gives a good overview of current wisdom, but strongly declining battery prices change EVERYTHING
Image
I've recently written about how I was surprised I missed the enormous consequences of price reductions in batteries.

LFP cells are now $50/kWh and last 10 000 cycles.
That's $0.005 per kWh.

Say we double that to pack the cells and you are at $0.01/kWh.aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-ho…
If you add batteries to solar PV, not all energy has to flow through batteries. But let's keep it at $0.01 and add that to the price of solar. That makes PV (and wind) SUPER cheap!

Batteries must be discounted more quickly you say?
Read 10 tweets
Jun 20
Cheap stationary batteries will pave the way for wind and solar in cheap and resilient energy grids. Unfortunately the @IEA is mispredicting it (again).

Thread based on a free substack article I just wrote.
aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-li…
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Many of my followers know this picture: it visualizes how the IEA underestimates solar. Now I see basically the same problem in their new battery report.

Image
The IEAs new battery report gives a lot of great info on batteries but also two predictions taken from their authoritative world energy outlook:
1) STEPS which is basically business as usual
2) NZE (Net Zero Emissions) which is aspirational
iea.org/reports/batter…
Read 11 tweets
Jun 16
Batteries: how cheap can they get?

I used the Sunday afternoot to describe how I think that dirt cheap batteries will completely transform our electricity grid, paving the way for solar and wind and replacing grid reinforcements with grid buffers
aukehoekstra.substack.com/p/batteries-ho…
This is something I'm working on for different government and grid operator projects, but I never realized just how cheap sodium batteries could become and how much of a game changer that will be.

So I used my Sunday evening to write this and would love your feedback!
First I look at the learning curve and then we see it is extremely predictable: every doubling of production has reduced prices by around 25%.

It's even steeper and more predictable than solar panels, the poster child of this type of learning curve.
(More details on substack.) Image
Read 15 tweets
Jun 5
Aaaand we have another winner of the "EVs and renewables can never happen because of material scarcety" sweepstake. I thought @pwrhungry was more serious. Let me explain why this is misleading bollox.
First of all, notice how his argument is mainly that Vaclav Smil says this and HE is an authority.

Why bother to write a substack that basically parrots someone else?

Because you don't really understand it yourself and needed to write another substack maybe?
I'm a bit tired of this because Bryce abuses Smil the same way most people who are against renewables abuse him. They emphasize this is a serious and revered figure that knows numbers. They make it about the messenger, not the argument.
Read 14 tweets

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