Josh Rudolph Profile picture
Sep 14, 2020 12 tweets 5 min read Read on X
While Russia uses "a range of measures" to interfere in the Nov. 3 election, the Kremlin spends covert foreign money to meddle in two elections a couple days before that on Russia's borders. One will be revealed later this week. In today’s thread: Georgia. codastory.com/disinformation…
The Georgian job is run by the Kremlin dept. for "Inter-Regional Relations and Cultural Contacts with Foreign Countries," headed by SVR Gen. Vladimir Chernov & staffed with FSB, GRU, & SVR officers. Its real aim is to prevent color revolutions near Russia. dossier.center/chernov/
.@dossier_center got a trove of internal Kremlin documents, from Russia's $8 million budget to fund Georgia's pro-Russian political party in the four months before the Oct 31 election to emails showing Kremlin control over the party's political consultants.dossier.center/georgia/
The Kremlin's hand in Georgian politics runs thru cut-out's: the pro-Russian party in Tbilisi gets consulting from a Moscow firm, which works with another consultant, who answers to an FSB colonel & his deputy (a GRU officer), who report to General Chernov.dossier.center/georgia2/
These "consultants" (who report to Russian intel services) bring expertise from "successful turnkey election campaigns in Russia, Kyrgyzstan, Kazakhstan, and Ukraine." They tell the Georgians what messages and events will help stir up animosities and drive wedges among opponents.
The Moscow-based "consultants" also create video ads to be placed on Georgian television, with ominous music and warnings about how the country will collapse into chaos of crime and unemployment under any leadership other than the pro-Russia party. Image
If these revelations had come to light before we published our report on covert foreign money on August 18, we would have included this case in our study, because the details are extensively and credibly reported with documents, amounts, names, dates, etc. securingdemocracy.gmfus.org/covert-foreign…
The $8 million budget set by the Kremlin for Georgia's election fits squarely within the $3 million to $15 million range we found is necessary to buy influence in a national election. Across our global study, the amounts add up to more than $300 million spanning 115 cases. Image
Many of the loopholes exploited in other democracies are also problematic in Georgia, where foreign donations are technically outlawed but enforcement is weak and there are no regulations around loans, third-party campaigning, or second-round elections. osce.org/files/f/docume… Image
The Georgian campaign finance oversight agency, the State Audit Office, doesn't have sufficient human resources, needs court approvals to launch investigations or impose sanctions, and lacks the authority to compel witness testimonies.
osce.org/files/f/docume… Image
More broadly, like in too many post-Soviet countries, "anti-corruption" work in Georgia involves prosecutors finding evidence of wrongdoing only to be called off by corrupt officials and/or bribed themselves to shut the investigation. That's what we hear is expected of this case.
Russian interference in democracies continues all over the world and it won't stop until people—voters & politicians—understand the central premise of democracy that must be above political interests: Authorities don't work for themselves or for foreign powers. They work for you.

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More from @JoshRudes

Oct 22
Quite the opposite of isolationism, Trump’s instincts betray a perverse form of internationalism:

He’s eager to realign US foreign policy away from democratic allies and towards the dictators whose ranks he yearns to join.

My latest in @ForeignPolicy. 🧵 foreignpolicy.com/2024/10/22/tru…
It’s dangerously naive to view Trump as simply another “isolationist” whose foreign policy echoes nothing darker than Americans’ historical urges to pull back from the world.

@CharlesKupchan offers such reassurances in this recent piece in @ForeignAffairs.foreignaffairs.com/united-states/…
Kupchan argues that Trump’s unilateralism strongly resembles the US isolationist grand strategy first articulated in George Washington’s 1796 farewell address, which set out a “policy to steer clear of permanent alliances” that lasted until the attack on Pearl Harbor in 1941. Image
Read 35 tweets
Jul 30
This piece is an embarrassment to @ForeignPolicy, which should issue a retraction.

It's by a MidEast columnist who cherrypicked quotes and facts to weave her own narrative that'll now be used by the Kremlin's useful idiots to undermine support for Ukraine.foreignpolicy.com/2024/07/29/ukr…
What’s the basis for claiming in the opening sentence that corruption has undermined Ukraine’s fight against Russia? Image
It’s certainly not supported by the first former official quoted in the piece, who says just the opposite—that reforms aren’t the issue stopping Ukraine from joining NATO. Image
Read 13 tweets
Oct 17, 2023
This news out of Kyiv today is just as important as ATACMS but will get far less international attention because it sounds technical and boring.

The parliament just adopted an anti-corruption measure (lifelong PEP status) that meets the last big precondition for EU accession. 🧵
This reform brings Ukraine in compliance with the @FATFNews standard of making banks closely scrutinize the finances of politically exposed persons or PEPs (i.e., former public officials who could benefit from corruption) for the rest of their lives, rather than just three years. Image
As background, see this article in @EuropeanPravda.

PEP reform was "the last main obstacle to the [EU] negotiations" and Zelensky's government was having a hard time getting its proposal through the parliament due to opposition among lawmakers who don't want to be lifelong PEPs. Image
Read 7 tweets
Sep 26, 2023
Even as Ukrainian generals and soldiers fight to expel Russian invaders, a second army of state bureaucrats and civil society experts in Kyiv has been quietly mobilizing to win the peace.

Two new reports from @gmfus, @brdo_ukraine, @IAAUkraine, & @RISE_Ukraine_ map these actors.
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As we've spoken to officials planning for a Marshall Plan for Ukraine, we've realized they often don't have a clear picture of all the new government bodies and civil society coalitions that have sprout up in Kyiv to prepare for reconstruction.

That's why we did this research.
Our first report, led by @brdo_ukraine, focuses on Ukrainian government institutions. ⬇️gmfus.org/news/kyivs-mob…
Read 8 tweets
Sep 26, 2023
Wow! I had heard that this was in the works, but the details are strikingly strong. 💪

Good of the @WhiteHouse for sending the G7 donor coordination platform this list of 25 reforms that Ukraine must implement in order to continue receiving US assistance. news.yahoo.com/white-house-le…



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Two of my favorite aspects of this list are how the priorities are sequenced over the next 18 months and how they've prioritized reforms to give the specialized anti-corruption agencies more resources and authorities, with specific line items for SAPO, NABU, NACP, HACC, and ARMA. Image
If you think that's an alphabet soup of esoteric bureaucracy, Putin disagrees. In his vitriolic speech three days before fully invading, he named these Ukrainian anti-corruption institutions and bemoaned their leadership selection processes and US support. en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Read 19 tweets
Jun 20, 2023
NEW REPORT: Ukraine is halfway through a hero’s journey with a dual conflict against Russia and oligarchy.

Ukrainian anti-corruption is vital to the rules-based order. @NormEisen, Cameron Bertron, and I offer 25 ways stakeholders in that order can help. 🧵gmfus.org/news/ukraines-…
We start by setting the record straight on Ukrainian anti-corruption.

Here's what the Kremlin and its useful idiots leave out from their narrative about corruption in Ukraine:

Never in history has a nation built such a sweeping array of anti-corruption institutions in a decade. Image
This success drove Putin to invade. See what he did on the date of Feb 21 – a year apart, in 2021 & 2022.

2/21/2021: Started mobilizing “large-scale exercises” hours after Medvedchuk’s assets seized

2/21/2022: Named Ukraine’s rule-of-law institutions in his vitriolic war speech Image
Read 9 tweets

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