🧵 The CMOH/Dr. Yaffe update - my initial thoughts.
The main argument is that this situation is not like the Spring - the cases grew more rapidly then, 1/3 the testing, high positivity, more severe cases, more widespread (and I would add higher Rt too), so less urgency/concern.
2/ Yes, it IS different.
But the other way of looking at this ramp up is that it is happening
- DESPITE the virtual elimination of widespread travel infections (hence less widespread right now)
- DESPITE almost 100% mask wearing
- DESPITE advances in testing and tracing
.../3
3/ - DESPITE elderly infections drastically reduced

As for growing less rapidly, we see from my charts that the three major popn regions affected are growing exponentially. They have all the potential to grow faster as time goes on.

AND the Spring wave had schools closed.
4/ Rt and test positivity are lower but the TRENDS are what we need to pay attention to. Waiting until we see 1,2 3%, 5% would be like giving a guy on a bike a 1 minute head start than running after him.
5/ As for widespread, yes. This is more localized, it doesn't have a million travellers coming back from Florida spring break in two weeks. Instead it is starting from our population cores - among the young.
It may progress into certain regions first but the next tier of high population regions like those in the Golden Horseshoe are a) adjacent or close, and b) travel to the core regions. There is no magic immunity boundary between Halton and Mississauga.
So there is no one time Spring Break event to "spike us awake and convince us", or an immediate LTC disaster. Instead, there is an insidious, slower, homegrown growth of younger, more asymptomatic, less visible, less severe cases.
I imagine I will be creating a chart like this for Ontario some time. You cannot expect to shelter the elderly and vulnerable from all contact in a pandemic wave - HCW's, grandkids, families... there is no magic bubble.
No one said that this wave would look the same. But no one said that we can afford to be slow-footed either. Whatever actions we take now will pale in magnitude to those we will be forced to take weeks or a month from now. Speed trumps perfection. /end

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More from @Billius27

2 Aug
Ontario Regional Dashboard 1030am Aug 2
York, SW, and Chatham among regions with higher active case today. Windsor, Ottawa, Toronto ⬇️ slightly.
(More incl some notes on "active" at end ⤵️)
#Covid19 #Covid19Ontario #CovidOntario #Onhealth #CovidCanada
public.tableau.com/profile/bill.c…
Full rankings today based on active counts.
Per 100K - this is where smaller regions come into the spotlight using case incidence rates.
Read 16 tweets
11 Apr
Thread, A cautionary tale.
A few weeks ago, as Sweden basked in a low death count, their country was highlighted as one that had chosen a less stringent path in responding to the pandemic. /2
#CovidCanada

foreignpolicy.com/2020/03/24/swe…
2/ Oxford University confirmed where Sweden stood in terms of mitigation - they were well below the norm. (Canada, UK and USA were also below the norm but not by very much.)
Sweden was in a league of its own. /3
3/ Modeling by London's Imperial College estimated how well 11 European countries were doing in lowering Rt - covid19's transmissibility. Sweden was projected to lower Rt but to leave it worse off than other countries who were more stringent in their controls. /4
Read 5 tweets

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