Doctors have received their Z$9,500 (US$90) salaries. Meanwhile, govt is boasting about reducing the wage bill to below 50% of expenditure and stabilizing the currency. These are disingenuous claim. The reality is govt has allowed salaries to be eroded by inflation. 1/ ImageImage
Assuming government agreed to pay doctors a modest US$360, the wage bill would immediately increase four-fold. The same is true of nurses, teachers and other civil servants whose salaries have been rendered worthless by inflation. 2/
Govt has no way to increase its tax revenues independent of an increase in production, the only card left is to print. It is not a matter of if but when this will happen. When it happens, the rate will begin to run again, the 50% of expenditure façade will disappear 3/
No country has escaped the dire straits Zimbabwe finds itself without a bailout. The regime is unwilling to implement the reforms that would make such a bailout possible so it has chosen to force the population to endure that which should not be endured. 4/
In any other country, the level of poverty and suffering being experienced in Zimbabwe would lead to social unrest. However, Mnangagwa has deployed the military and ferrets to prevent what would otherwise be inevitable. By shutting this safety valve, he has created a timebomb. 5/
The regime believes it can intimidate the population into submission and acceptance of the status quo. This only goes so far; the human spirit eventually revolts in spite of the danger. Genuine reforms are the only way out, the alternative is a hard landing. 6/

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More from @DrGGandawa

8 Sep
At the risk of being the bearer of bad news, the ANC delegation that arrives in Harare today will not achieve any meaningful outcome. This is because what is widely described as a crisis, means different things to the stakeholders. The conversation starts at cross purposes. 1/
The MDC believes that the crisis is a bilateral dispute between itself and Zanu PF, which can only be resolved by Zanu PF surrendering power to the legitimate winner of the 2018 election. Over the past two years, this has found expression as the ‘crisis of legitimacy’. 2/
Meanwhile, the so-called G40 believes that the crisis arises from the 2017 coup which ushered in the Mnangagwa regime. The 2017 coup is viewed as the genesis of military interference and state capture. To fix Zimbabwe, the coup must be cured. 3/
Read 7 tweets
17 Aug
In November 2017, bread was $0.90. It is now $70 as inflation rages at 837%. Contrast this with the 5% inflation projected by govt. When you project 5% inflation and end up with 837%, you are in crisis. As this thread will show, Zimbabwe meets any definition of crisis. 1/18
Inflation has wiped out salaries and pensions with government workers earning as little as $3,000 (US$30). Nurses and doctors are on strike, protesting poor pay and working conditions. Police have reacted violently to peaceful protests by nurses who demanding better pay. 2/18
The result is an almost total collapse of the healthcare system. Last month seven babies were stillborn at a Harare Central Hospital in a single night. Urgent treatment was unavailable due to the strike. Doctors have no PPE and those who do turn up resort to bed linen. 3/18
Read 18 tweets
9 Apr
1/6 The lockdown in Zimbabwe is on course to fail for a number of reasons. This is unsurprising because, from the beginning, govt misunderstood the mechanics of a lockdown which requires aggressive testing, contact tracing and effective social distancing.
2/6 The public, taking cue from govt, is not taking social distancing seriously: Cabinet still meets (other countries using video conferencing), president addressed a rally, met business community at State House and receives donations in person.
3/6 This was made worse by comments by Defense minister Oppah Muchinguri downplaying COVID-19 as a curse targeting the West, a senior government official calling it an “affluent” disease, ruling party MP Chinotimba saying it targets the “immoral”.
Read 6 tweets

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