A continued cloudy picture over jobs ft.com/content/85b4d2… via @financialtimes

Yes - payroll numbers suggest we've lost 695,000 since March.

But that figure was 730,000 last month - following some revisions

There's the first sign in monthly data (always can be a blip) of the official unemployment rate rising

Even more so in weekly data (up to almost 5%)

Hours are staging a recovery - still about 10% down on pre-pandemic level, but way above April.

But this is where we see big distributional shifts (here self employment is suffering)

Also hitting the young and part-timers

So - if you've had a stable job and are a millennial, you've been fine, but younger, older, self-employed, or part-time, you've got a lot more to worry about


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More from @ChrisGiles_

9 Sep
UK government reimposes new national laws on social gatherings as case number rise.

The rise came earlier (when measured by the day of test) than the latest spike in reported cases...
....around the bank holiday


Worse. The rate of positive tests is also rising, so higher numbers of confirmed cases are not due to more testing

Case rates vary across the UK, but are have risen everywhere...

... in five regions/nations, they higher than the level that triggers quarantine for returning travellers

Read 5 tweets
3 Sep
There is a big question for any autumn Budget - should @RishiSunak raise taxes (either immediately or deferred a few years)

My bit on that gives a resounding "no" as an answer

@RishiSunak The immediate priority for economic policy is health.

We don't know the scale of persistent coronavirus economic damage
We don't have sensible medium term forecasts
So we can't know the scale of necessary tax rises
It is honestly fine to have a Budget with palpably unsustainable public finance forecasts in these circumstances

The fiscal rules have a "comply or explain" element - now is the time to explain

And build the case for necessary tax rises which have the least economic costs
Read 5 tweets
24 Aug
It looks like the UK economy has enjoyed a remarkable bounce in the third quarter so far....


Consumers have put caution aside at least for now

- Eat out ot help out is quite a success
- lower VAT on hospitality
- staycations

means pubs, restaurants have been full especially on Mondays to Wednesdays

Data from @OpenTableUK

Read 5 tweets
19 Aug
A thread on:

Why we need an algorithm to help set A Level grades in 2021

(After the past week, I'm honestly not being obtuse)

Yes, I understand that the choices made in this year's A level standardisation algorithm were disastrous....


But as the FT editorial board and others have explained, this was much more a human rathen than an algorithmic failing


Read 11 tweets
15 Aug
Ofqual has published guidelines on how it might revise grades based on “valid” mock results

Everyone knows this to be a bit of a panic response to the disastrous moderation exercise

Also entirely unnecessary if brains had been engaged earlier

The twin disasters of the process were an inability to allow for exceptions - the star pupils in ordinary schools (marked down) and occasional horror in a top school (lucky sod) - and decision not to standardise everyone, providing systematic bias in favour of private schools...
... with small cohorts

The peculiar achievement was to exacerbate unfairness with a standardisation process normally designed to encourage it. 👏👏👏
Read 10 tweets
24 Jul
Quick thread on a question I often ask when reading lobby group reports


This relates to @TheCityUK report on recapitalisation. My column was on its central theme, but this thread will examine its evidence on levelling up

@TheCityUK In their report, thecityuk.com/assets/2020/Re…, they include this chart as evidence that bad Covid debts will hit areas outside London the hardest.

@TheCityUK This is the sole evidence they use and by my count, they repeat it 8 times in the report.

It seems to convince them that areas outside the capital are most at risk and this will hinder levelling up

Read 8 tweets

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