1. Purpose: protocol designed to prevent a hard border between Ireland and NI: the only way to do that was to agree a UK-wide backstop (which PM rejected) OR ensure greater alignment between NI and Ireland & move admin procedures to the Irish Sea. PM negotiated the latter
2. Length: The protocol will apply even if there is an FTA – it’s just that certain provisions could be superseded (i.e. improved) by FTA. This is why FTA talks are so important. And why any attempt to unpick WA cd seriously jeopardise them.
3. Length (2): The protocol can be disapplied but only if NI Assembly decides to cancel it (that decision can only happen in 4 years time - and wd take 2 years from that point to unwind).
4. Disputes: The PM himself acknowledged that there were provisions in the WA to resolve disputes over the WA and Protocol. One way to minimise trade friction inside the UK is through FTA talks. But unilateral measures, even as a safety net, risk hardening EU position. END.
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My (quick) take on Macron's speech (not Q&A) @GLOBSEC: 1. Nothing substantially new - but I think it will go a long way to reassure those, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, who were critical of France, its position on Russia and not doing enough for Ukraine.
2. On NATO: NATO is back. But Europeans must think more abt how they guarantee peace & security on continent. Felt to me like Macron focused less on Europe (EU)'s independence from others & more on need to *become a credible actor in eyes of others.* Capable > autonomous.
3. On EU enlargement: unequivocally clear that Ukraine, Moldova & Balkans belong in EU. Talks must not take forever (but doesn't specify how long they shd take). EU must also think abt its future: outlook, what it becomes etc.
(He's running late - quelle surprise.. but does give me time to question my decision to live-tweet. Macron speeches tend to be v, v long)
Robert Vass, head of @GLOBSEC, thanks Macron for 1) being there - shows France's willingness to (re)engage with region; 2) for playing a role in Ukraine's enlargement and support to Ukraine; 3) European Political Community. Now over to Macron..
Today, on Europe 🇪🇺 Day, German Chancellor Scholz gave a speech in front of @Europarl_EN calling for an EU that is "more geopolitical, reformed & open to the future". What does this mean for France? Short thread 1/3:
1. Good news: 🇩🇪 and 🇫🇷 both want EU to: 1) be more geopolitical 2) have more capabilities, incl. more integrated defence industry 3) reform (for e.g. majority voting for foreign policy). NB: reform not a precondition to enlargement but a long-term goal 4) more industrial policy
2. Good news: 🇫🇷 will appreciate Scholz emphasis on African development (+ overcoming colonial history) & starting Ukrainian reconstruction now. No mention in speech of fiscal rules (probably because they are currently being discussed in Brussels).
.@vonderleyen unveils the EU Commission's proposal for a "Green Deal Industrial Plan" to respond to the Inflation Reduction Act : ec.europa.eu/commission/pre… short thread
1. It's all about climate: the new deal complements EU Green Deal and RePowerEU (EU's plan to reduce dependence on Russian fossil fuels). But clearly, it's also about supporting EU green tech industry in face of US' inflation reduction act & Chinese support for green tech firms.
2. Simplify rules & secure supply chains: EU wants to 'simplify' state aid procedures. New net-zero act & critical raw materials act to ensure EU industry have components & materials they need.
1. EU doesn’t hate the IRA: IRA is 1st major attempt by a US administration to combat climate change. A good thing for US and the planet. Some EU companies have even benefitted from IRA (German heavy industry recorded 40% increase in Sept. 2022, compared to Sept. 2021).
2. IRA subsidies & tax breaks are the problem: Why?
1⃣EU green tech tempted to relocate production to US to benefit from generous subsidies & low energy prices;
2⃣confirms US industrial policy will continue to favour industry "Made in America".
Hi 👋🏼! If I'm a bit quiet on here lately it's cos I'm spending too much time reading up on US' #InflationReductionAct (and the likes) to understand impact EU industry (I know, fun). Anyway, can someone please help me understand what an adviser to President Macron said.. 1/2
... when he/she said: "Macron is hoping to secure exemptions for certain EU industries" from IRA during his state visit to Washington tomorrow "like those Canada and Mexico benefit from". Help please? Thx 2/2
(Thank you to the kind souls who have already come to my rescue in PM).