1. Purpose: protocol designed to prevent a hard border between Ireland and NI: the only way to do that was to agree a UK-wide backstop (which PM rejected) OR ensure greater alignment between NI and Ireland & move admin procedures to the Irish Sea. PM negotiated the latter
2. Length: The protocol will apply even if there is an FTA – it’s just that certain provisions could be superseded (i.e. improved) by FTA. This is why FTA talks are so important. And why any attempt to unpick WA cd seriously jeopardise them.
3. Length (2): The protocol can be disapplied but only if NI Assembly decides to cancel it (that decision can only happen in 4 years time - and wd take 2 years from that point to unwind).
4. Disputes: The PM himself acknowledged that there were provisions in the WA to resolve disputes over the WA and Protocol. One way to minimise trade friction inside the UK is through FTA talks. But unilateral measures, even as a safety net, risk hardening EU position. END.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
The 🇫🇷 National Assembly has voted down Barnier's government (331 MPs voted in favour of no-confidence vote). What happens next? Quick thread.
1. Context: Barnier's government was unpopular from the start. His budget proposal (there are 3 finance bills in total), even more so. Barnier did make changes to his proposal, but still a majority of MPs opposed it. He will hand in his resignation letter tonight to Macron.
2. Context (2): Of the 3 bills, 1 was adopted, 1 was outstanding and 1 was pushed through parliament without a vote (the gov used art. 49.3 of the constitution to do this). Hence, the no-confidence vote. Problem: France needs a budget by the end of the year, or cd face a shutdown
Why did Macron decide to dissolve the Assemblée Nationale (🇫🇷 lower house of parliament) & call early legislative elections. Only Macron's immediate entourage know but here are some personal thoughts 🧵:
1. Mix of reasons: end parliamentary deadlock; snap election focuses minds; show what the far-right truly cares about & what it is actually capable of doing; confidence & hubris that Macron can win the French over; rebuild republican camp. Thing is: is this possible in 3 weeks?
1. End parliamentary deadlock: 🇫🇷 government has a relative majority in parliament making it v tricky to pass legislation. Macron was always likely to dissolve parliament ahead of budget discussions this yr. But why so soon, and why give only 3 weeks?
I was planning to live-tweet @EmmanuelMacron’s 🇪🇺 speech but the network was saturated. So here is my slightly belated take (thread 1/9):
1. This speech has been in the making for a while. Member states often ask what 🇫🇷 wants to do over the next 5 years and the world has changed a lot since first Sorbonne speech in 2017 (pandemic, Ukraine, even Brexit). So this was Macron’s chance to set out his vision.
2. The ideas, on the whole, didn’t feel new. But there was a sense of urgency that wasn’t there in 2017: EU must adapt now or risk “dying”. EU must stop being naive and take risks: the world has become more competitive, ruthless and the EU is the only power still playing by…
My (quick) take on Macron's speech (not Q&A) @GLOBSEC: 1. Nothing substantially new - but I think it will go a long way to reassure those, especially in Central and Eastern Europe, who were critical of France, its position on Russia and not doing enough for Ukraine.
2. On NATO: NATO is back. But Europeans must think more abt how they guarantee peace & security on continent. Felt to me like Macron focused less on Europe (EU)'s independence from others & more on need to *become a credible actor in eyes of others.* Capable > autonomous.
3. On EU enlargement: unequivocally clear that Ukraine, Moldova & Balkans belong in EU. Talks must not take forever (but doesn't specify how long they shd take). EU must also think abt its future: outlook, what it becomes etc.
(He's running late - quelle surprise.. but does give me time to question my decision to live-tweet. Macron speeches tend to be v, v long)
Robert Vass, head of @GLOBSEC, thanks Macron for 1) being there - shows France's willingness to (re)engage with region; 2) for playing a role in Ukraine's enlargement and support to Ukraine; 3) European Political Community. Now over to Macron..
Today, on Europe 🇪🇺 Day, German Chancellor Scholz gave a speech in front of @Europarl_EN calling for an EU that is "more geopolitical, reformed & open to the future". What does this mean for France? Short thread 1/3:
1. Good news: 🇩🇪 and 🇫🇷 both want EU to: 1) be more geopolitical 2) have more capabilities, incl. more integrated defence industry 3) reform (for e.g. majority voting for foreign policy). NB: reform not a precondition to enlargement but a long-term goal 4) more industrial policy
2. Good news: 🇫🇷 will appreciate Scholz emphasis on African development (+ overcoming colonial history) & starting Ukrainian reconstruction now. No mention in speech of fiscal rules (probably because they are currently being discussed in Brussels).