[mini-fil] J'avais lu avec grand intérêt les ouvrages passionnants de Clark et de MacMillan sur 1914. Je pense que l'analogie n'est pas pertinente pour au moins cinq raisons:
(2/4) (i) la différence de nature des alliances (ex., aucun équivalent au "chèque en blanc" du Kaiser), (ii) l'absence de nationalisme exacerbé dans la partie occidentale de l'Europe, (iii) une vision et une culture de la guerre très différentes de ce qu'elle étaient en 1914...
(3/4) (iv) des mécanismes d'engagement des forces qui n'ont rien à voir avec ceux de 1914 (mobilisation etc.) et de plus (v) un contrôle politique sur les armées infiniment plus assuré.
(4/4) Enfin et de manière incidente, on note que l'incident maritime gréco-turc de la mi-août a plutôt montré une disponibilité des deux parties à ne pas mettre de l'huile sur le feu.

Bref, les dynamiques de type 1914 sont peu présentes.

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More from @BrunoTertrais

29 Jul 18
1/4 An @ARTEfr is working on a documentary on nukes in Europe. They asked me that question. I declined to answer: the probability so small that not worth thinking about. Real, important questions for today are...
2/4 Should the Europeans rethink their relation with deterrence and expectations from the US, UK, FR? (Yes). Can we hedge against sudden perceived deterioration of US nuclear guarantee? (Yes). Are there ways to do this without damaging the transatlantic relationship (Yes)...
3/4 A supplementary or complementary nuclear insurance can be devised in several different ways w/o breaking NATO arrangements. Concepts to implement this have been put forward in many position papers (and some public pieces) over the past 25 years. No "new ideas" are required.
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