Thread by @mdouganlpool

I’ve been asked for another step-by-step explanation of what’s just happened in Westminster.

So voila: an update on Johnson’s plans to destabilise Ireland and isolate the UK…

1) As we know, Parliament is now considering whether to empower Johnson to override, directly & deliberately, two clear and precise legal obligations under the very Withdrawal Agreement he signed with the EU: controls on goods from NI to GB; and state aid rules in relation to NI

2) & as we know, those breaches of international law risk range of very serious consequences. Not least for NI: state aid regime is necessary to prevent unfair dumping of UK goods into EU and is therefore an integral part of avoiding a “hard border” across the island of Ireland

3) So already Johnson is consciously provoking EU into either allowing Single Market to be compromised by unfair UK trade practices or taking appropriate steps to safeguard its external frontiers by instigating controls on NI trade. & thinks he can then blame EU for “hard border”

4) What can EU do about it? Withdrawal Agreement provides that, during transition, dispute settlement is via European Court of Justice (not arbitration): Commission can bring proceedings v. UK, for ECJ to deliver binding ruling; if UK doesn’t comply, ECJ can impose £€ penalties

5) Problem is: that’s still “just” international law and UKIM Bill would authorise Johnson regime simply to ignore also any CJEU rulings or penalties against UK here. Ultimately, if UK wants to provoke full-scale crisis, EU’s response would have to be political and diplomatic.

6) But just as important as what Bill actually says, is how Tories are presenting it / claims they are making to justify their international delinquency. Because those claims bear little relationship to the actual contents of the Bill – total, shocking dishonesty and propaganda…

7) 1st, Johnson claims EU is planning to prevent GB foodstuffs entering NI, effectively imposing a “blockade”. 2nd, also claims EU is insisting on “extreme” interpretation that would require GB goods entering NI to pay EU customs duties. 2 serious problems with Johnson's claims

8) First major problem: this Bill wouldn’t actually do *anything* to address those alleged problems, since it does not empower UK to disapply any of provisions of Protocol governing the movement of goods from GB into NI. So Johnson’s claims are totally irrelevant and misleading

9) Second major problem: those aren’t “extreme” interpretations. They're clear and obvious: eg Protocol says ALL GB goods presumed at risk of entering EU & must pay EU customs unless proven otherwise. Joint Comm has power to determine what counts as “otherwise”. But rule is clear

10) So even problems Johnson is complaining about are problems he negotiated, signed, sold in the election as “triumph” of his diplomacy, told his MPs to pass through Parliament and agreed with EU as a matter of binding international law. For him to complain now? Totally indecent

11) Serious worry now? Having made such fuss about blockades/extreme interpretations, Johnson will bring forward fresh proposals to authorise UK *also* to breach provisions of Protocol governing trade in goods from GB into NI. If so: would escalate already difficult situation x10

12) In such situation, Johnson would effectively be ripping up treaty that seeks to protect Ireland (north & south) from inherently damaging consequences of UK decision to leave the EU, Customs Union & Single Market. As if years of complex & difficult negotiations never happened

13) EU would have little choice but to act, to safeguard its borders & protect its citizens. But make no mistake: UK would be solely responsible for creation of a “hard border” across Ireland that would directly undermine the Good Friday Agreement and jeopardise the peace process

14) And no amount of Tory propaganda could trivialise the situation (“oh, but other countries break the law all the time…”) or to fool anyone, save their own fanatical & bigoted support base, that the UK is the injured party (“oh, the nasty foreigners have been bullying us…”)

15) So Johnson has set this country on a trajectory that is as serious as it is shocking: risks making UK a threat not just to rules-based international order that UK itself helped create; but also to international peace and security in Ireland and therefore in Europe. Diabolical