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@anandesh

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Jun 20

Oncology has quietly become the largest therapy area in global pharma.

With global oncology spending expected to grow from $252 billion in 2024 to $441 billion by 2029, companies operating in oncology drugs, APIs, and cancer care could benefit from this long-term trend.

As oncology continues to outpace the broader pharma industry, these three Indian small- and mid-cap companies could be among the key beneficiaries.🧵

1/5
Why is oncology becoming such an attractive opportunity?

-Global cancer cases are projected to rise from 20 million in 2022 to 35.3 million by 2050 (+76%).

- High entry barriers, complex manufacturing, and stringent regulatory approvals make oncology difficult to replicate.

- As a result, oncology spending is growing at ~12% annually, significantly faster than the broader pharma industry.

2/5
Shilpa Medicare Ltd
-Oncology is the core of Shilpa's business, with oncology APIs contributing ₹390 crore in FY26 and accounting for ~51% of its API revenue. Management describes oncology as the "bedrock" of the company.

- The company is one of the leading suppliers of oncology APIs and formulations, serving 50+ countries through a vertically integrated model spanning APIs to finished formulations.

-To capitalize on the growing oncology opportunity, Shilpa is adding 15+ new oncology APIs targeting blockbuster drugs facing patent expiries through 2032, while oncology API revenue grew ~20% YoY in FY26.

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Jun 1

India approved a ₹37,500 crore coal gasification scheme.

Coal India followed with a ₹60,000 crore gasification push.

Most investors ignored both.

But one Pune company has spent years positioning for exactly this shift.

Investors still see a fertilizer stock.

What they're actually looking at is one of India's most important mining and industrial chemical businesses.
🧵

1/8
First, don't focus on the name.

Deepak Fertilisers is far more than a fertilizer company.

It controls 40% of India's Technical Ammonium Nitrate (TAN) market, the explosive used in coal mines, tunnels, quarries, and infrastructure projects.

It also produces ammonia and specialty chemicals.

In many ways, it's part of the backbone of India's industrial economy.

2/8
The real opportunity starts with ammonia.

For years, Deepak depended heavily on imported gas as a key feedstock.

Whenever global energy markets became unstable, input costs surged and margins came under pressure.

FY26 was a reminder of how heavily Indian manufacturers still depend on imported energy.

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Apr 4

India’s Cement Cycle 2.0 🧵 |
From Capacity Flood to Future Profit Pools

India’s cement story is entering a fascinating phase.

On one side: a 160MT capacity wave.
On the other: only 70MT demand growth in the near term.

This is no ordinary sector update — it’s a classic capital cycle + margin cycle + regional pricing story unfolding in real time.

Let’s decode where the structural signals — and potential alpha pools — may lie 👇

1/n
The Scale of Supply Is Massive 🌊

• Industry capacity addition: 160MT (FY24–27e)
• Demand growth: 70MT

👉 Hence: supply is growing at more than 2x demand

📌 Investor Lens:
This sets up a classic oversupply phase.

In cyclical sectors, excess capacity usually pressures utilization, realizations, and margins before the cycle eventually tightens.

2/n
Demand Is Stable — Not the Problem

• Cement demand to grow at ~6–7% CAGR (FY26–30E)
• Backed by infra push + structural drivers

👉 What this means:
Demand isn’t weak.

The real issue?

Supply is ramping up faster than demand absorption.

📌 Key Insight:
This is a timing mismatch — not a structural demand problem.

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Nov 4, 2025

India's e-commerce might explode to $80 billion by 2030.

This is powered by ultra-fast delivery wars.
But who wins the race?

Bernstein's fresh report on Eternal and Swiggy uncovers surprising shifts - slowing food growth, quick commerce battles, and hidden options.

Let’s discuss in this thread 🧵

Bernstein spotlights India's top 5% - 70 million urban consumers boasting $20,000 GDP per capita, controlling an $80 billion wallet by FY30.

Platforms like Eternal and Swiggy are morphing into lifestyle concierges, bundling quick commerce, food delivery, dining, and events to boost transaction frequency and wallet share through relentless innovation.

For context, this Serviceable Addressable Market (SAM) offers a 4x growth potential from FY25's $14 billion B2C GOV for these players.

Globally, markets consolidate fast:

Top 2-3 players grab 80-100% share in food delivery (97% in US, 99% in China) and 77-88% in e-commerce.

India's mirroring this, with scale in data and logistics trumping network effects.

Eternal leads here with its food delivery and quick commerce dominance, while Swiggy holds strong as #2, both leveraging 20-25 million unique daily active users to defend positions.

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Sep 3, 2025

Chemical Industry insights & opportunities for investors from Mr. Anurag Surana's chat with Manish of Solidarity Advisors.

Mr Surana has 35+ yrs of experience. He was an investor & board member at PI Industries, having worked there for 14 years as Executive Director.

Thread🧵

1. A few years ago, Indian companies were small.

"20 years back, typically Indian companies were small, insignificant players... they were treated as raw material suppliers, not as strategic partners."

Cut to the 2020s, forget China plus one, many are now selling in China.

2. For the uninitiated, "China Plus One" strategy is a business tactic where companies diversify their supply chains & production by investing in suppliers from countries other than China to reduce risks and over-reliance on China.

This strategy gained momentum due to increasing costs, trade tensions, geopolitical uncertainties & the significant disruptions caused by the COVID-19 pandemic.

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Aug 18, 2025

Multibaggers, the stocks that multiply your investment tenfold or more, don’t happen by chance.

Anna Yartseva’s deep dive into 464 multibaggers from 2009-24 reveals the facts you ignore.

It shatters myths: Earnings growth? Irrelevant.

FCF yield reigns supreme

Key findings-🧵

Academic deep dives on multibaggers are rare.

Mostly anecdotes from Thomas Phelps (100 to 1) & Christopher Mayer (100 Baggers).

Engaging stories, but they concentrate on case studies & non-numeric factors.

Yartseva crunched real data: U.S. stocks over 15 yrs, post-crisis reset.

The aim: pinpoint factors that truly drive outperformance.

She tested Fama-French factors on these winners, concluding-

Expected stock returns depend on the performance of the broad market (or market risk premium) and a stock’s exposure to

size,
value,
profitability,
and investment factors.

The findings confirmed what we knew but also uncovered patterns we didn’t expect.

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