Thread by @jmart

On FLORIDA...

A few more thoughts

1/

nytimes.com/2020/09/14/us/…

I spoke to voters in Venice, Sarasota, St Armands (just across the water) and Longboat Key. Mostly retirees.

The bulk of the conversations reflected the polarized times: people knew who they were supporting and had strong feelings about the race.

But there were nuances...

Biden supporters would shoot a look that said "how could you even ask, ya dope" when asked why they were supporting him.It was, to them, self-evident: because Trump!

Trump supporters were more mixed. A few were hardcore. But most injected some to-be-sure note

It was either "the tweets" or "the tone" or "his mouth." @Peggynoonannyc made this pt in last column - outside his rallies, Trump supporters are far more willing to be candid about his flaws.

But after their to-be-sures, they'd quickly pivot to...

to the pre-virus econ, what they see as his get-it-done leadership style or, most often, making the case *against* Biden and Dems. Ye ole negative partisanship, which was, to put it mildly, also the animating force driving the Biden voters.

What was mostly lacking w Trump supporters, tho, was the sort of contempt for Biden you'd hear about the Clintons four years ago. They'd mock him, repeat Trump lines. But there were little attacks on his character.

*in the way of attacks on his character. ^

Candidates aside, the most striking part of the convos was how they brought pol science alive.

By that I mean the degree to which voters now use events to retrofit their preexisting partisanship...

Reporters talking to voters generation ago would found them moved by events - econ is up/down etc - to support an R or a D. Now events are mostly the raw material voters use to justify their already-determined vote.

NOT in all cases.

Events - the virus, biggest of all - *have* hurt Trump, esp w seniors. The "LOL nothing matters" bit is inaccurate. But in a polarized moment, the shifts are at the margins.

Fla, tho, is a margins state.

And if Trump can't sustain his support in places like Sarasota Co. - where Hillary lost by 11.5 after Obama nearly *won* there in '08 - he won't win Fla again. And he likely can't win the WH without Fla

So people like Michelle, she w/ the wheaten terrier, in the story matter.

Speaking of voters, I encountered.

Dept of Ya Can't Make It Up.

Longboat Key is known as a haven for Midwestern retirees and, sure enough, I happened across the sister-in-law of Mercer Reynolds at the Publix.

Reynolds was nat'l finance chair for W, is from Indian Hills

...and speaking of Cincy, does anything scream “Midwestern transplants” like the below (taken in the Sarasota airport)

#oh #io

And speaking of eats, didn’t know there were Columbia outposts beyond Ybor City!

Got that grouper and yellow rice in St Armands, the first key across water from Sarasota 👇

But if you’re in Sarasota, or just driving up or down 75, can’t recommend Indigenous Restaurant enough. Charming old house, somehow tucked away in downtown Sarasota. Lots of outdoor seats.

Got there during gov race in ‘18 - and it was on point again

indigenoussarasota.com