12 hospital admissions in the last 24 hours is the highest since May 27th.

13 fighting for their life in ICU is the highest since June 22nd and included a toddler admitted last week.

All the bickering on social media is just noise.

Here's my own little speech for everyone:
In recent weeks, multiple people who tested positive had over 50 close contacts in different parts of the country.


No government can ever control how many friends or family we spend time with, or watch every house for a party, that will always be a choice in a democracy.
Median number of close contacts is 4 ish, average is closer to 7.

What that means in plain English is most people in Ireland are behaving sensibly and following advice.

It also means a small minority of people are having ridiculous amounts of contacts, bringing the average up.
The way you lose sight of a virus is by super-spreaders i.e. large amounts of close contacts.

If an infectious person has 50 close contacts, identifying them all is near-impossible, contacting them all takes days.

In the meantime, they are potentially passing the virus on.
It's essentially the Usual Suspects scenario.

You finally figure out who Keyser Soze is and he's already long gone.

That's how chains of transmission strengthen.

You only break them by having low amounts of contacts, that can be quickly identified and traced.
That can't be solved for us by others, it can only come from within.

It's not just teenagers either.

This is people of all ages making choices to attend indoor mass gatherings and if it continues we will continue to lose the trail of the virus.
Ireland are only a small handful of super-spreading events away from losing sight of Covid completely.

Right now our 14-day incidence of 45.8 per 100,000 is close to twice as better as the European average, which has raced towards 100.0.

We're on the precipice of joining them.
For the last month all I heard was "it's only young people" and for the last month I've warned it will spread to older people.

There was 126 cases in the 65-74 age group for July and August combined.

There is 120 cases in the 65-74 age group first fortnight in September.
At current rate of infection, we will have the entire summer amount of cases in the over 65's within the next 4 days.

That's more cases than the whole of June, July, August in the space of 3 weeks in September.

Many of those older people are going to die.
I know nowadays JFK's inaugural is the subject of much parody and ridicule.

"Ask not what your country can do for you, ask what you can do for your country."

Now would be a very good time to take those words earnestly.

50 close contacts isn't helping Ireland.
If all of this continues, there is not one doubt in my mind hundreds will die in the coming 2 months.

I'm watching it unfold in Spain.

Their 14-day cumulative deaths per 100,000 has gone from 0.1 (where Ireland are today) to 1.6 per 100,000 and is heading towards 4.0 rapidly.
Ireland can and will follow that trend.

I know that because we already are, to the inch, we're just 4 weeks behind them.

100 people will die every week here in mid-to-late October if we don't find a way to push the disease back on its march.
Blame and division won't turn back the tide. Pointing fingers at young people won't do it either.

Washing your hands, wearing a mask, 2 meters, reduce close contacts.

That's the stuff proven to work.
This remains a global pandemic that is killing so many people worldwide every day.

Irish people did a phenomenal job early summer, and we repelled that wave of death.

We can do it again.

This is still a national crisis. Stick together.

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More from @Care2much18

22 Sep
I know there are days lately when hand washing and social distancing feels a bit futile.

I will try to give a different perspective here and hopefully remind people that all of your efforts for each other these past few months actually achieved a lot.
New cases per 1 million population, last 3 months (June 22nd-Sep 21):

Bahrain 25,530
Israel 18,755
Panama 18,362
Brazil 16,288
Peru 15,364
USA 14,121
Kuwait 14,060
Colombia 13,755
Montenegro 13,502
Argentina 13,188
Qatar 12,648
Oman 12,634
Costa Rica 12,417
Chile 10,496
S. Africa 9,489
Bolivia 9,097
Moldova 8,208
Spain 8,081
Cabo Verde 7,874
Suriname 7,529
Dominican Republic 7,482
Iraq 7,291
Bosnia 6,782
Kyrgyzstan 6,440
Honduras 5,961
Czechia 5,721
N. Macedonia 5,602
Malta 4,863
Saudi Arabia 4,841
Kazakhstan 4,758
Romania 4,706
Paraguay 4,597
Read 17 tweets
20 Sep
After thought, I'll step back from Twitter a little. A few people asked how to support my work, my DM's are open if anybody does. I didn't research threads for 6 months to try get anything out of it, other than to help people.

I'll still be here, touch wood, but not as often.
There's some awesome people on this website who have supported me and I will write a blog post on it when I feel better.

I know I focus too much on the personal abuse I get, so my new approach in the future will be to use the Block button and try not take it so badly :)
I'd encourage people to trust Dr. Glynn. He's a good person, an expert and he is trying to keep people alive.

Ask questions and disagree if the answers are illogical, by all means, but know that his is a discipline of expertise - and he has lots of that.
Read 5 tweets
20 Sep
Ireland's epidemic has been shadowing the trajectory of most European countries, most closely Denmark, but also countries like Spain and Greece.

It's Greece I'm going to focus on, due to a few similarities, to try offer encouragement that recent measures in Dublin can help.
2 months ago on July 20th, this was the picture:

14-day incidence per 100,000:

Spain: 18.0
Ireland: 4.8
Greece: 4.6

Hospital admissions, ICU admissions and deaths were low and stable in all 3 countries.
Over the next month, the virus gained traction as people gradually began to embrace the new normal.

By August 20th, all 3 countries were in identical proportions to July, except with ~6 times more infection:

14-day incidence per 100,000:

Spain: 138.7
Ireland: 25.4
Greece: 25.3
Read 20 tweets
19 Sep
This is irresponsible and has the capacity to cause harm.

The "3 worst" Electoral Divisions in Dublin are the ED's of Connolly Hospital, Tallaght Hospital and St. James's Hospital.

The failure to note why that is, or even offer some sort of caveat, creates a harmful stigma.
Cases are not just tied to a home address.

Electoral Divisions that contain major hospitals can have a disproportionately high infection rate because staff who are in close contact with Covid19 daily are mass-tested on a regular basis.
That doesn't just apply to Dublin, most ED's in Ireland that contain major hospitals have an above average infection rate for their county.

So when you see 67 cases in Blanchardstown and 79 cases in Tallaght in the past 14 days, it doesn't necessarily reflect on the area.
Read 5 tweets
19 Sep
Short thread on some of the available evidence re: restaurants, much of the best data comes from US, which have similar requirements for staff on masks and table layout to Europe.

They have the best data partly because they funded Public Health to 2.5% of all health expenditure.
In Louisiana, 339 recent outbreaks have been traced to source. Restaurants rank as the 2nd most common venue of infection.

By setting:

Industrial setting - 55
Restaurant - 42
Bar - 41
Retail - 31
Meat plant/Food Processing - 29

What's most interesting is the average amount of cases associated with restaurant clusters in Louisiana is 4 cases.

Whereas there were fewer meat outbreaks but the average cluster was 25 cases, which again highlights the ease of spread in the cold, ventilated indoor environment.
Read 7 tweets
18 Sep
When viewing a map like this, VERY important to remember how small Ireland is to avoid creating stigma.

Cases are tied to either a work address or home address.

67 cases in Blanch giving a 14-day incidence of 189.8 doesn't mean there's 67 cases involving Blanchardstown natives.
You could have a building site cluster of 30 cases, and it will be tied to Blanchardstown by work address.

But those 30 people can live anywhere in Meath, Louth, Dublin or Kildare, from Dundalk to Ashbourne to Naas to Stepaside, and spin over to work on the site every morning.
Vice versa, a case can be tied to their home address but they may have picked the virus up in work or at a social event miles from where they live or in a different county.

The map is a rough guide but it is never supposed to be used to gauge your risk levels.
Read 4 tweets

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