one of the big debates right now on west coast fires is whether this is climate change or a forestry management issue.

for those claiming that this is climate change, i have a question:

then why does it stop cold at the canadian border?
i have already written on the issues with forestry management.

it's clear that piles of regulations to protect the fluffy butted warbler have left forests in dangerous condition.

and that forests are overcrowded, unhealthy, and packed with tinder and excess fuel.

it's true all up and down the west coast of the US, but it stops like a painter's stencil at the canadian border.

even if one accepts the idea that climate change is creating more fires (itself contradicted by the data) that would seem to make forestry management even more important.

if risk rises then so should care for forests.

instead, the very same people lamenting all this climate change and claiming it causes fires are opposed to pretty much every policy that would reduce them from logging to thinning to establishing defensible space.

they are their own worst enemies.
like so much environmental policy, it's a self-contradictory mess.

it's like knowing you're going through a car wash and demanding that the convertible top be left down then getting upset that everyone got hurt and and the car interior wrecked.
people keep trying to claim that "ooh, that's just the map".

it's not.

canada is having a very low fire year.

please do some actual homework before making such baseless claims
you can pull the data direct from the canadian government site.

it's not like it's hard to find...

cwfis.cfs.nrcan.gc.ca/report/graphs#…
more useful info:

(thanks to @JSteinbachsND for the link)

nelsonstar.com/opinion/guest-…

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More from @boriquagato

19 Sep
wendy, i understand that you have no grounding in this field, but this is dangerous, pseudo-scientific twaddle you are pushing to score cheap political points at the expense of people lives and livelihoods.

lockdowns and masks do not work.

never have.

all the guidelines say so
you are not on the side of science, you are on the side of fear mongering and mysticism.

but don't take my word for it, ask the CDC, the WHO, the CEBM, and the US biodefense guidelines.

here's a helpful compendium to get you started.

i hope that you are in for a surprise when you read this, because, if you are not, then it means that you know full well that you're lying and harming people to chase political power.

perhaps you've not seen how the EU is realizing how wrong this was.

ft.com/content/5cc92d…
Read 9 tweets
18 Sep
i'd like to use sweden and illinois to tie several concepts together.

the two are similar size, density, and population.

illinois locked down and wore masks. sweden did not.

sweden counts covid deaths more aggressively. this should give advantage to IL.

they still lost.
governor pritzger's experiment in pseudoscience has yielded 17% more deaths per capita than sweden's adherence to longstanding pandemic guidelines.

we can use google mobility data to see the quantitative difference in their lockdowns.

IL locked down 3X has hard as sweden.
sweden was back to normal by mid april.

Illinois took until mid june.

neither showed any correlation whatsoever between lockdowns/reopening and deaths.

here we see sweden (who reports real day of death data) and their smooth, gompertz style curve
Read 16 tweets
18 Sep
if this inkblot looks like "herd immunity does not work" you you, we may need to have a look at your meds...

sweden is down to basically no ICU use or deaths from covid.

these numbers are probably within the false + range of the tests, esp on deaths.
recall that sweden calls any death for any reason within 30 days of a covid diagnosis (lab confirmed or not) a "covid death" even if you never had covid symptoms.

test positive but feel fine then get eaten by a lion in a freak zoo accident 3 weeks later? covid death.
if you're at 3 deaths in the last week using that metric and taking into account the false positive rate on tests, there is pretty much nothing going on.

it's over.
Read 5 tweets
17 Sep
OMG! cases in <insert EU country here> are exploding and are now as high/higher than march/april!

um, no. testing levels in these countries are 10-30X what they were in march and april

this is mostly a change in sample rate, not in disease prevalence

let's take a breath here
this is NOT a new pandemic. it's 90%+ data artifact.

let's take france:

peak 7 day MA for cases was 4537 on 4/1

it's currently 8648, 90% higher. but france was testing 0.25/1000 people on 4/1 vs 2.14 today.

at april sample rate, current cases would be 1010, 78% below 4/1.
so these apparent trend lines have the wrong slope in dramatic fashion.

it looks like up 90%, but it's really down 78%. this is not a small difference. it's the whole ballgame.

and this is validated by deaths.

4/8 peak in 7DMA was 975. today is 36, 96% lower.
Read 7 tweets
17 Sep
i have a thought:

move the line on qualified immunity.

if you sue a company, you can, under certain circumstances, pierce the corporate veil and go after the management directly. this generally requires evidence of willful malfeasance or fraud.

why should gov't be different?
what if, in the case of deliberate fraud or harm, you could sue not just the government, but the politician as well?

now THAT might get interesting.

i like this for a lot of reasons.

it puts serious skin in the game for politicians.
this would make them think twice about committing fraud and about throwing their weight around to use zoning or permitting or other forms of patronage/regulation to harm those they do not like

obviously, this needs to be calibrated, but i have seen it work quite well in business
Read 4 tweets
15 Sep
spain's current spike in cases is a data artifact.

mar peak has testing levels of 0.1-0.2/1000.

it's currently 1.9/1000 so the sample rate is 9-19X higher

so, 9000 cases today would have read as ~500-1000 at that sample rate

this new peak really only 5-10% as high as last one
perhaps even less.

and this shows up clearly in the deaths data.

it's about 3% of april levels.

spain has some wide climactic variance by region and a very hot south.

do they have distinct regional flu seasons like the US?

that may be a factor.
discussing cases without reference to the testing level can be extremely misleading.

you can see the same issue in the US:

Read 5 tweets

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