I'm increasingly starting to think the Conservative's don't actually know how they won last year.
The debate always seems to be framed as if as long as the Tories keep hold of the average Leave voter then it's plain sailing.

Except they won last year because they got the support of 74% of Leave voters, while Labour only won the support of 49% of Remainers.
The reasons for this include (among, I'm sure, many other things):
a) More popular leader
b) Perceived to be more competent
c) Seen as "getting Brexit done" (which also appealed to enough Con leaning Remain voters)
If the Tories lose a chunk of more moderate Leave voters, while also losing some more Remainer who stuck with them, then it won't end well.

And reigniting an aggressive Brexit debate (when you said you would get it done) ain't gonna play well with them.
Of course, there are loads of other things that could be going on.

Could be that they think they think they need to pass the law anyway, so might as well make the attack.

It is also better for the Conservatives for the media to be focusing on this than testing.
But the idea that this is some ingenious trap that screws Starmer and the Labour party is based on a massive misunderstanding of where the public are and how the Tories won.
.@jamesjohnson252 has also written on a similar theme


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More from @chriscurtis94

24 Jul
For the full context:

Do you support or oppose the Black Lives Matter protests?
Support - 42%
Oppose - 28%
DK - 5%

The protests...?
Should have gone ahead at the present time - 21%
Should have gone ahead but at a later date - 30%
Should not have gone ahead at all - 38%
DK - 10%
Is it appropriate or inappropriate for Premier League footballers to...
..."take the knee" before kick off?
Appropriate - 37%
Inappropriate - 37%
Not sure - 25%

...wear the Black Lives Matter logo on their shirts?
Appropriate - 43%
Inappropriate - 37%
Not sure - 20%
Would you support or oppose the removal of all statues of historical figures with links to slavery from British towns and cities?
Support - 27%
Oppose - 49%
Don't know - 6%
Read 4 tweets
23 May
Just spoke to @SkyNews about why I think the accusations about Cummings WILL be the sort of story that cuts through with the public and why this will be politically difficult for the government.

Some thoughts...
1 - The public really don't like Cummings. Before all of this, just 14% had a favourable view of him, 45% unfavourable. He was even in negative territory among Conservative voters.

Normally this doesn't matter too much, but he's not an ideal person to be front and centre.
2 - Goes without saying, but the public hate anything that sounds like public figures acting "hypocritically" or not following the rules that they ask the rest of us to follow.
Read 6 tweets
27 Feb
This will probably be interesting to absolutely nobody who isn’t me, but here is a long-ish thread on how we run our Labour members polling:
Step 1 is identifying Labour party members to be surveyed. We do this by running short “mega-polls” to the YouGov panel (which is why we don’t need the permission of the Labour party, or the access to their membership lists).
The scale of this is a little bit crazy, we have probably asked at least a million people if they are members of the Labour party since 2015, and hundreds of thousands since the January cut-off date.
Read 12 tweets
15 Jan
I think one issue with this is the headline, the poll doesn't show the race narrowing because there hasn't been a previous Labour List poll using this methodology.

You can't really compare it to the YouGov poll, because that was conducted differently so it isn't apples to apples.
In terms of accuracy, there is no intrinsic problem with getting your sample from Labour List *if* those members are representative of the wider membership, or if they are not representative in a way you can account for through weighting.
Read 5 tweets
23 Dec 19
So I have finally got around to releasing my post election research on why voters left Labour in the election.

Much of this has been said, and none of it should come as a shock, but I think some of the nuance is interesting.

In the days following the election, we spoke to nearly 500 people who had voted Labour in 2017 but not in 2019.

Not the whole story (because we also need to think about the voters Lab could have lost / won) but given Labour’s vote share fell by nearly 8%, these voters were key.
Firstly, on ordering...

Leadership, or Jeremy Corbyn specifically, was mentioned way more people than anything else, including Brexit.
Read 10 tweets
11 Nov 19
Hate to burst everybody's bubble, but I'm not sure this makes much difference at all.

On current polling, the most important seats are the Labour held marginals, which aren't affected by this announcement.
In fact, I think the number of seats the announcement effects (again, on current polling!) can probably be counted on one hand.
Of course, this WILL likely mitigate against the effects of a potential Labour surge but:
a) We are a long way off that
b) By that point we are already in hung parliament territory
Read 8 tweets

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