A couple thoughts on Europe:

1) Reporting in the US on Europe COVID numbers is abysmal. Really terrible. Absolutely bottom of the barrel information. Atrocious.

2) We're probably hints of our future there.
3) Case rises in Europe are regional. Not even country-to-country regional, but they vary wildly within each country

4) Spain and France have seen the biggest surges so far. There are theories for why. I have found few of them compelling as mono causal explanations.
5) There likely is no mono-causal explanation

6) I am writing for Friday about Spain's COVID surge. I will likely get some things wrong, but I'm trying to get the most detail possible

You should subscribe as it will be a subscriber post polimath.substack.com

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More from @politicalmath

9 Sep
This is a dumbass game and this thread will show you why:

If all the the US had Alaska's death rate, 162,000 more Americans would be alive

If we all had California's rate, 66,000 more Americans would be alive

If we all had Florida's rate, 3,000 more would be dead
If we all had DC's rate, 100,000 more would be dead

If we all had Montana's rate, 144,000 more would be alive

If we all had North Carolina's rate, 90,000 more would be alive

If we all had New York's rate 246,000 more would be dead
If we all had Wisconsin's rate, 115,000 more would be alive

If we all had Michigan's rate 42,000 more would be dead

If we all had Ohio's rate, 60,000 more would be alive
Read 4 tweets
26 Jul
As of right now, Colorado has a higher death rate than Florida
Now, this will likely change this week. We expect to see some rough data out of Florida in the next few weeks.

But the talking point that Florida (or Texas) played politics with this virus is false

The idea that Republican states are doing worse than Democrat states is false
There are a few shits like @isaacstanbecker who get hard trying to play politics w/ this tragedy

It fucking turns them on to make this a political issue

It isn't

Politics does not correspond to results AT ALL. Not even a little bit

But his very small brain can't accept that
Read 5 tweets
24 Jul
I was thinking today of what the the news would look like if it was about context and understanding and not about click-bait and dunking

For example:
In the early stages of this crisis, I noted that looking at the numbers of the country as a whole wasn't really a helpful way of understanding things b/c it looked like some states were getting slammed and some states weren't.
Later on, I thought it was interesting how state geography seemed to drive case surges far more than any state policy did

I started wondering why some states see surges and others don't. The things that people say make a difference... don't. At least not consistently.
Read 10 tweets
24 Jul
For today's newsletter, I interviewed @WilsonKM2, who works for the Canadian Center for Vaccinology doing data coordination for flu surveillance.

It's a pretty in-depth conversation on data management, but fascinating

polimath.substack.com/p/disease-surv…

I learned that we often capture 1500-2000 data points per patient and that often other researchers will pay a disease surveillance to capture additional info.

We talk about vaccines and how "the research community super wants to kill this virus" /2
Kevin pointed me to This Week in Virology podcast microbe.tv/twiv/ and I ended up listening to Dr Fauci talk about sending kids back to school

He's for it, but noted that every place is going to have to make their decisions based on the situation on the ground
Read 4 tweets
24 Jul
btw, this is as good a time to remind everyone that any time you see an anti-homeschooling article, it can inevitably be traced back to the Coalition for Responsibly Home Education

It's embarrassing how reliable this is /1
The CRHE is a group of literally like 15-20 people who just fucking hate homeschoolers and fucking hate all conservatives.

I went to college with one of their board members. She is a bitter, angry, grumpy person who really just wants revenge. For what, I can't tell you /2
I did not realize how easily journalists are manipulated by biased non-profit orgs until I saw this pattern of "journalism" and manipulation.

Every anti-homeschooling article in a major publication can be traced back to this group. Every single fucking one. /3
Read 5 tweets
15 Jul
My mom called me, freaking out about the "100% positive rate" that ABC News was reporting out of Florida in case you're wondering why I get so frustrated.
Newsrooms should know by now.

They should have an even-keeled data person that they run every report past who can say "nah, that seems pretty unlikely. I would just hold onto that while we wait to see what actually happened."
A couple weeks ago, someone pinged me and asked why Florida suddenly had thousands of excess deaths in a single week in the CDC's excess death data

I looked at it and said "That looks like someone made a data mistake"

Here's how ABC News reported it
Read 5 tweets

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