Abraham Thomas Profile picture
Sep 15, 2020 15 tweets 2 min read Read on X
1/ Pricing curves for data are dramatically different from pricing curves for software, hardware, services, or consumer products. A thread of some things I've learned:
2/ Price per data point first increases, then decreases with quantity. Small datasets are usually worth less than big ones. But beyond a certain point, adding more data points doesn't add marginal information, and hence the price plateaus.
3/ Price first decreases, then increases with adoption. Unique datasets are worth more than commoditized ones, but once a dataset becomes "table stakes", price goes up again, especially if there's a single dominant supplier.
4/ Data is meaningless except insofar as it generates insight. And potential insights and their applications vary enormously from user to user. A dataset that's invaluable to one may be worthless to another.
5/ Price is typically an increasing function of "context". Most datasets have limited standalone utility; the more context a user puts around it, the more value.
6/ Rough analogy: neither weight alone, nor height alone, are very useful in evaluating health. But both together can be. And the more dimensions you add (age, gender, history, diet, exercise), the more the insight you can draw from individual fields.
7/ Rigorous datasets with clear takeaways command a deserved price premium. Somewhat counterintuitively, less rigorous datasets with ambiguous interpretations have lower customer churn rates -- because they're "never wrong".
8/ Data appears to have asymptotically zero marginal cost (for storage, replication, delivery), but this is a misconception. Obsolescence, maintenance and customization all impose ongoing costs for both vendors and customers.
9/ Data becomes obsolete way faster than hardware or even software. Nobody wants to make decisions based on stale data.
10/ Nor do they want to make decisions based on incorrect data, and errors are everywhere. Data quality control, as a field or skill or practice, is still in its infancy, and correspondingly expensive if you want to do it right.
11/ Raw data rarely drives value; it requires work. Whether it's the data consumer paying for this work, or the data producer, doesn't matter: the cost of value extraction is not zero. Furthermore, this work tends to be custom, imposing limits on scale and reusability.
12/ You would think that being digital, data is non-rival, but that's not true. Some datasets explicitly gain their value from having only one user; think of alpha generation in financial markets.
13/ Training data has different economics from production data. Training data has large one-off costs but also retains its value over time. It's even more rivalrous than financial data.
14/ All the above points apply fairly obviously to external data assets that a company acquires or purchases or ingests. But they also apply to internal data assets, and most companies don't analyze internal data through these lenses.
15/ Finally and most interestingly: the economics of data companies depend increasingly on the economics of the underlying data. And every company is now a data company.

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More from @athomasq

Jan 19, 2022
1/ Let's talk about quant investing! People tend to label a lot of things "quant", but this muddies the very significant differences between various quant approaches. Image
2/ An options market-maker, a systematic long-short fund, an HFT platform and a trend/reversal macro trader are all quants, but they do very different things.
3/ Instead of lumping them all into the same bucket, I find it useful to think about various categories of quant investing in terms of their "edge". What advantage does a specific quant strategy rely on?
Read 47 tweets
Jan 5, 2022
I see so many startups whose business plan involves "monetizing the data". Sure, they have a product, and some revenue, but the *real* payoff is the data they're collecting. Or so they say.

PSA: it's not that easy. /1
Selling the data directly is almost always a non-starter. Repeatable, scalable, high-value data sales require a set of conditions that are exceedingly rare. /2
First, the data has to be reasonably comprehensive: covering enough of the domain of interest to be statistically significant and economically actionable. This is where most startup datasets fall down: they're simply not big enough. /3
Read 27 tweets
Jan 28, 2021
As someone who was trading professionally (and successfully) in both 1999-00 and 2007-08, I have to say it *finally* feels like we're in the late stages of a bull market. I'm not talking about valuations or fundamentals; I'm talking about the zeitgeist. /1
The defining feature of late stage bulls is not price action; it's craziness. Think GameStop, and negative oil, and TikTok investors, and Davey. /2
This craziness is often driven by retail. Retail investors have more buying power, higher risk appetite, and fewer inhibitions than professionals. When retail enters the market, other investors get run over. /3
Read 9 tweets
Sep 24, 2020
1/ It's been 6 months since the low point of US markets and economic activity. Ordinarily, we'd see the first academic papers on the COVID recession emerge right around now. But thanks to new sources of data, researchers are way ahead of schedule.

🧵THREAD👇
2/ Let's begin with spending. Chen et al use daily transaction data -- bank cards and QR code usage from UnionPay -- to track the decline of consumer spending across 214 cities in China, one of the earliest indicators of pandemic-induced changes:
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
3/ As early as March, the BEA was using credit card transactions processed by Fiserv to track COVID's impact on consumer spending in the US, per Dunn et al:
bea.gov/system/files/p…
Read 26 tweets
Sep 22, 2020
Terrific piece on Sutter Hill, Mike Speiser, and the incubation model of venture, from the always insightful @kevinakwok:
Kevin has a great 2x2 where he points out that most well-known VCs are in the "successful + brand-network-effect" quadrant, for obvious reasons -- they need the inbound deal flow. And Sutter Hill is interesting because it's in the "successful + low-profile" quadrant.
This is actually a quadrant I'm quite familiar with -- most hedge funds fall here! As a junior trader I was told: play dumb, stay quiet, keep a low profile, protect your edge, never reveal your positions or plans.
Read 5 tweets
Aug 2, 2020
1/ When I was 13 years old, I spent 3 days in the hold of a converted cargo ship, escaping a war zone with nothing more than what I could carry in a small backpack.

🧵THREAD 👇
2/ Exactly 30 years ago, on August 2nd 1990, Saddam Hussein's army invaded Kuwait. I remember it clearly; I was there.
3/ My family was part of the massive Indian expat community. My father worked for the Kuwaiti ministry of health; my mother was a teacher. We had lived in Kuwait for 6 years.
Read 47 tweets

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