I've often spoke about regional trends with Covid19 and Influenza. What we are seeing right now is a good example of a regional trend.

14-day new cases per 100,000 in Western Europe:

Spain 278.8
France: 158.5
Belgium: 77.0
Netherlands: 73.6
Portugal: 64.1
UK: 52.9
Ireland: 45.8
Those numbers rising in unison is not a coincidence.

Northern Europe (Scandinavia):

14-day new cases per 100,000:

Norway: 28.4
Sweden: 22.2
Finland: 9.8

North Eastern Europe:

14-day new cases per 100,000:

Estonia: 24.4
Poland: 18.8
Lithuania: 17.2
Latvia: 4.2
There tend to be outliers in each region but for the most part infection rises and falls together within sub-regions of Europe.

Ireland are ironically the best-performing country in the region but really what I'm trying to say is the entirety of Western Europe is goosed.
It's likely all 7 countries in the region will breach 100.0 per 100,000 within 2 weeks.

At the moment Ireland are clinging on near 50.0 but we will undoubtedly get close to 100.0.

Some of it is baked-in because we can't change societal behaviour from 2 weeks ago.
When you look back at the autumn wave in Western Europe, during the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, the peak occurred in late August.

Covid19 is surging around 3 weeks after but also 3 weeks before Flu normally starts to gain traction in Western Europe (most years).
We can say with certainty that the 14-day incidence in Western Europe is now 8 times higher than 1 month ago.

Whether that's a resurgence, 2nd wave, autumn wave or (worst case) building to the first peak of a prolonged winter season, remains to be seen.
Regardless of what you call any of this, we're in deep doo-doo in this part of the world.

We were the epicenter of the first wave in April and are again at risk of becoming the global epicenter.

All we can do in Ireland is do our best individually, masks etc and hope for best.

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh

Keep Current with Danny Boy

Danny Boy Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!


Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @Care2much18

16 Sep
Ireland reached a milestone in the pandemic response today completing 1 million Covid19 tests.

An ungodly amount of work went into it all over 6 months, so I'll shine a spotlight on as many of those people as possible here.

And thank you.
Irish institutions stepped up immediately.

GAA opened their doors up and down the country, from Páirc Uí Chaoimh to Mick Neville Park.

Croke Park was the first drive-through testing center opened in Europe on March 17th.

The GAA made the logistics of testing a lot smoother.
Irish Universities and higher education jumped straight into action.

UCC, UL, NUIG, Athlone, Sligo, Letterkenny and Cork IT UL, facilitated reagents during the global reagent shortage.

Thanks to their effort, thousands of tests were completed.

Read 15 tweets
15 Sep
12 hospital admissions in the last 24 hours is the highest since May 27th.

13 fighting for their life in ICU is the highest since June 22nd and included a toddler admitted last week.

All the bickering on social media is just noise.

Here's my own little speech for everyone:
In recent weeks, multiple people who tested positive had over 50 close contacts in different parts of the country.


No government can ever control how many friends or family we spend time with, or watch every house for a party, that will always be a choice in a democracy.
Median number of close contacts is 4 ish, average is closer to 7.

What that means in plain English is most people in Ireland are behaving sensibly and following advice.

It also means a small minority of people are having ridiculous amounts of contacts, bringing the average up.
Read 14 tweets
13 Sep
Based on current cases, rate of infection, average length of time to death and case fatality rate by age group, we will see 10-15 deaths in the coming week and 40-50 deaths in the next 21 days.

If this level of infection carries on into the winter, we are goosed.
There has been 179 cases in the first 12 days of September in the over 65 age groups.

For the entirety of the summer (June, July, August) there was 297 cases in the over 65's.

We are fast approaching the entire summer amount of cases within the first 3 weeks in September.
The Case Fatality Rate in those age groups has improved slightly globally, and in Ireland, partly thanks to improved and refined treatment with cheap steroids like Dexamethasone.

But it is not a drastic reduction and you're still looking at substantial fatality rates.
Read 10 tweets
11 Sep
There's some bizarre analysis floating around that everything is peachy.

No, it's not.

Infection is spreading to the elderly and if things don't change pronto, we're going to be back in deaths-every-day territory within the next fortnight.
The most vulnerable age group are the very elderly.

For most of the summer, they were being very well protected, to the point we saw these low numbers:

July and August *combined*:

Over 85 years old:

Cases: 21
Admitted to hospital: 3
21 cases in 2 months was great.

September, *so far*:

Over 85 years old:

Cases: 39
Admitted to hospital: 9

Statistically, around 10 of those are going to die soon, this week and the next few weeks, but that can easily rise to 15 depending on their underlying health.
Read 10 tweets
8 Sep
In the last month, there was 244 cases in the over 65 age groups.

In the 2 months prior to that, June 8th to August 8th, there was 119 cases.

Infection has quadrupled in the over 65 age groups.

It's an absolute certainty we will see plenty of deaths if these trends continue.
In the last month, there has been 29 people over 65-years-old admitted to hospital.

In the 2 months prior to that, there was 21 people admitted in the over 65 age groups.

Hospital admissions have trebled among older people.
Both sickness and death lag behind infection.

In terms of ICU, 25%-30% of deaths occur after 14 days in ICU, with 10%-15% of deaths occurring after 30 days.

This is an illness where people put up long fights and, as a result, all of those metrics lag behind.
Read 5 tweets
8 Sep
This is Trump-esque nonsense.

His argument is that 1,677 out of 1,777 had underlying clinical conditions and therefore only 100 died in Ireland.

It shows a complete misunderstanding of everything and is a repulsive argument at its core.
An 80-year-old with Type 2 Diabetes has a life expectancy of nearly 8 years.

An 80-year-old with hypertension, Type 2 Diabetes and COPD has a life expectancy of 3 years.

You can, and often do, find elderly people with a dozen underlying conditions who survive 5 years.
We are all "dying anyway" from the moment we are born.

The idea that Covid accelerating deaths doesn't count because of underlying conditions is an argument devoid of understanding just how long people live with multiple underlying conditions.

It's also devoid of empathy.
Read 5 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!