Following up on my pinned tweet about calculating infection percentages in NYC (79%)

Notice Spain, Italy, France and UK - they are finding lots of new cases but fortunately not many deaths

This is apples to oranges type of comparison, but bear with me, gonna make a point

1/3
Notice how NYC can’t seem to find any new cases!

Maybe they’re not looking hard enough?

2/3
They are are looking everywhere!

79% infection rate would explain this

If you don’t understand this thread, check out my pinned tweet

3/3

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More from @gummibear737

18 Sep
Let me explain why anybody who is for lockdowns is using grandma as a human shield

I’ve repeatedly linked to this thread by @federicolois, but I want to explain it is my own words

People are not seeing the sheer hypocracy and cowardness of the “every life counts” bullshit

1
By locking down, you are ensuring that the 20 year old grandson has the same chance of getting the virus as his 80 year old grandma

Despite being about 400x less likely to die, we prefer they each have an equal chance of getting the virus

Don’t wanna infect grandma afterall!

2
But it doesn’t work that way

The grandson is going to be careful

But that doesn’t mean grandma isn’t going to be infected by someone else - example: grandson’s friend who mows grandma’s lawn

The longer the virus circulates the greater the chance to infect grandma

3
Read 7 tweets
17 Sep
Professor Neil Ferguson Deep Dive

"Professor Lockdown", as he's nicknamed in some newspapers, is back in the public space and offering his scientific opinions on public health policy

As such, let's take a look at Neil and his most important work on pandemics - including C19

1 Image
Who is Neil Ferguson?

He was the Imperial College epidemiologist who presented the doomsday scenario to U.K. leaders

He predicted that 550K would die in UK and 2.2M in the US if lockdown measures were not undertaken promptly

2
Lockdowns were never a part of any rational pandemic playbook

As I tweeted: "Lockdown is not a strategy, it’s a panic move"

Yet governments accepted his predictive modeling without criticism

How did Ferguson manage to convince the world to shut down?

3
Read 25 tweets
13 Sep
Must Read Deep Dive - Calculating Real Infection Rates from AB Studies

I found this incredible data from NYC AB testing

They've been reporting weekly AB testing results since April 11th (2 mil tests)

This graph has significant ramifications for how we understand COVID-19

1
Too bad we can't see data from a couple of weeks earlier, but we know NYC was at least 61%!

The first thing we see is the rapid seroreversion in April

This confirms that ABs don't last for the majority of the population

Depending on when you test, results can vary widely

2
But the most significant aspect is that eventually, you get to a "Stable AB%" - For NYC this is 20%

This number tells us how many people have long-lasting ABs

Working backward, we can use other data to try to predict a maximum value for Stable AB% if 100% are infected

3
Read 21 tweets
7 Sep
Okay, maybe I jumped the gun a bit

I thought he meant a less virulent strain was emerging - but that’s not what he’s saying

Dr. Balloux thinks the social distancing/masks are helping because people are being exposed to a lower “infection dose”

Or environmental factors

1/11
While I don’t dismiss this, and I think there is room for it in the “why are cases milder” discussion, I don’t think behavioral changes are the main reason

It might also be environmental (seasonality) to some extent, but not the main reason

2/11
I think lower infective dose is a viable explanation

It is a well documented phenomenon that small viral doses can provide immunity

And this is Dr. Balloux’s field, and he’s been right an awful lot so far

So take what I say with a grain of salt

3/11
Read 11 tweets
5 Sep
I am convinced Professor Johan Giesecke has discovered the secret to time travel

He traveled back to April 17th to tell the entire world what COVID-19 was...many didn't listen

Every single thing he says was correct

#Giesecke

1/3
unherd.com/thepost/coming…
Every single point he makes turned out to be true

It took the rest of us non non-time-travelers many more months to find proof for all of this

How does somebody get everything right?

2/3
In case you want to point out that the last prediction wasn't true:

"At least 50% of the population of both the UK and Sweden will be shown to have already had the disease when mass antibody testing becomes available"

Read this:

3/3
Read 4 tweets
1 Sep
Deep Dive!

This is an important thread about testing for SARS-CoV-2 which will explain:
-why herd immunity is possible at 10-20%
-why testing has really let us down and led to bad policy decisions

I will talk about two types of testing:
-PCR testing
-AB testing

First PCR:

1
PCR can make billions of copies of a specific DNA/RNA sample (RT-PCR used for Covid because it’s an RNA virus)

It is run in cycles with the amount of RNA increasing during each cycle

If you run enough cycles you can take a very small amount of RNA and make it very large

2
Some definitions:
Sensitivity - how many false negatives you get
Specificity - how many false positives you get

Earlier there was talk of PCR with a sensitivity as low as 66%

That is no longer the case, most are over 95% sensitivity and many at 100%

3
finddx.org/covid-19/sarsc…
Read 24 tweets

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