.@RachelBitecofer has been saying for over a year that there's a blue wave coming. The shocks of the pandemic, economic collapse, etc. haven't really changed things.
The issues aren't deciding this election. Party affiliation is.
The issues aren't deciding this election. Party affiliation is.
https://twitter.com/RachelBitecofer/status/1306012608550637568
If you're looking at the @FiveThirtyEight aggregator, you might see an expanded advantage for Biden pre and post pandemic. But that only goes back to March 2020.
But the Real Clear Politics aggregator, which stretches back well into 2019, shows that Biden has merely recovered the level of support he had prior to the Democratic primary- a period where the Dems had to endure a brutal public intra-party fight while the GOP was inert.
In March, Bitecofer predicted that hyperpartisanship meant that it was unlikely these massive political stimuli (pandemic, economic collapse, etc.) would have much impact on the fundamentals of the race.
In a healthy democracy, such massive shocks WOULD have mattered to voters.
In a healthy democracy, such massive shocks WOULD have mattered to voters.
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