Fact check: you can’t be this dumb.

Even if the herd immunity estimate of 60% is right (it’s wrong), this CNN doesn’t know the difference between reported cases and actual infections, which are 10x as high. So his estimate is off by a factor of at least 10x (likely much more)...
That’s assuming the current reported death number is right (it’s not, it’s high, inflated by six months of lockdown and six weeks of iatrogenic deaths, we just don’t know how many). But that’s just icing on the CNN cake.
But hey, we’re only six months into nonstop media coverage of the ro, how can a blue-check be expected to understand the difference between CFR and IFR?

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More from @AlexBerenson

20 Sep
I was going to spare Dr. Spencer the embarrassment of taking apart his piece in detail, but since he has asked:

His errors, fallacies, and misleading statements are legion (and likely intentional, as he is too smart not to understand them)...
Throughout the piece, he compares #Covid to the original SARS and MERS, pointing out both those illnesses can have long-term impacts. SARS and MERS are caused by coronaviruses, so the comparison seems reasonable.

It isn't. SARS and MERS are far more dangerous than Sars-Cov-2...
How much more dangerous? The virus that causes MERS has a fatality rate more than 100 times that of Sars-Cov-2. Compared to those viruses, Sars-Cov-2 is more like the flu - or the coronaviruses that cause ordinary colds...
Read 11 tweets
11 Sep
Fact check: absolutely false. New York is around 27% positive antibody tests, Madrid at ~10%. The Spanish lockdown was far harsher, longer, and more effective than the one in NYC; it prevented herd immunity and that is probably the reason for what’s happening now in Spain.
The rest of this thread is a long Team Apocalypse-tinted rant on how well New York handled the ro and how badly Spain did. I will remind you: all TA has been saying for months is what a good job Spain and the rest of Europe (except Sweden!) did, how they crushed the curve...
The only thing more annoying than ex-post-facto explanations that ignore the key factor is ex-post-facto explanations that GET REWRITTEN MONTH TO MONTH. Just stop. The reason NY is doing better than Madrid now isn't because of contact tracers who can't get their calls returned...
Read 4 tweets
11 Sep
1/ The fight over HCQ makes me wary of discussing other cheap potential #Covid drug treatments (Team Apocalypse HATES those), but this trial of a vitamin D analogue should have received more attention. It is small, but an RCT, and the results are striking.
2/ 76 patients at a major hospital in Spain were randomized prospectively 2-1 to the drug (calcifediol) or placebo; only 1 of the 50 who received calcifediol required ICU admission, compared to 13 of the 26 who did not. That's a huge gap...
3/ And it reaches statistical significance despite the small size of the trial, and even after accounting for confounders (the arms were relatively balanced, but more in the placebo arm had hypertension). Obviously, the usual caveats apply - this is small and single-site...
Read 4 tweets
8 Sep
1/ Yep, the early/hard lockdown countries are at the leading edge of their second wave: Spain with 78 deaths today (equivalent of 550 in the US) and 9,000 cases (63,000 in US). The question is how many deaths they’ll see this time.
2/ Based on non-lockdown localities like Sweden and Arizona, the best guess is that in advanced countries the virus burns out naturally after 500-700 deaths per million (with variation for age of population, comorbidities, and quality of care - i.e. Switzerland was very low)...
3/ However, hard lockdowns appear iatrogenic unless they are imposed before ANY community transmission occurs; they cause panic and health system strain; and in conjunction with population density and nursing home collapse they can cause severe short-term spikes...
Read 6 tweets
8 Sep
So will @JoeBiden do anything about the fact that @zekeemanuel - who is part of his coronavirus task force - also is the principal in a company that profits by selling advice about Covid to "film and television entertainment companies [and] tech industry innovators?"
And will any other reporters ask Biden about the conflict of interest here? For that matter, will they ask Dr. Emanuel about it during the interviews they have with him?

And will @WHO continue to allow him to serve as a "special advisor"?
Another fun fact about Dr. Emanuel: he has no medical license in Pennsylvania (where he has run the "Department of Medical Ethics & Health Policy" at UPenn since 2011), only Massachusetts.

True story: states grant medical licenses. Without one you can't legally see patients...
Read 5 tweets
8 Sep
1/ Real question: Dr. Anthony Fauci will be 80 in about three months. He looks to be in good shape and cognitively intact, but is it possible at this point he only has the bandwidth for one aspect of this crisis, and that bandwidth is media appearances for Dr. Anthony Fauci?
2/ What I mean is - is it possible he just hasn't thought through what's happened in the Sunbelt/Sweden, the problems with the tests, the lack of evidence for masks, the futility of tracing, etc?

I know this NEJM article he wrote is a strong counter...
3/ "This suggests that the overall clinical consequences of Covid-19 may ultimately be more akin to those of a severe seasonal influenza (which has a case fatality rate of approximately 0.1%) or a pandemic influenza..."
Read 4 tweets

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