Prediction: If Trump wins, the administration will soften on immigration, with the possibility of amnesty. They are completely misreading Latino support for the president. Trump might have the right instincts, but he will go along with the advice of his dumbest advisers.
Trump is not running the White House. It's being run by idiots like @jaredkushner and @BrookeRollinsTX, who view everything through an effeminate GOP lens. They can't see, or don't want to see, that Latino support for Trump is connected to his image of being a strongman.
But the problem in the second term will be that the GOP will close ranks around Kushner to protect him while he does whatever he wants, being credited as the hero of reelection. It will be hard to find a conservative pundit who will be opposed.
Instead of attacking Planned Parenthood, which would play well with Catholic Latinos, you'll get Ivanka pushing more feminism. Trump will soften on immigration based on the notion that Latino men don't like when he talks about it. We are governed by clowns regardless of who wins.
To be clear, I never tell people how to vote, but who and what they are voting for. The second term of Trump will, at best, slow down the inevitable, but it will pose its own problems. The GOP has shifted to the left under Trump in ways.
tl;dr: be prepared, don't be naive, don't get your news from the boosters

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More from @emeriticus

18 Sep
This study illuminates something that even the researchers won't explicitly acknowledge, nor will the GOP: Latinos increasingly see themselves as white-adjacent, which means, among other things, that the law and order message plays well with them 1/ nytimes.com/2020/09/18/opi…
Samuel P. Huntington described the predominate socio-cultural-political-religious fabric of the United States as White Anglo-Saxon Protestant. It seems that a sizable number of Latinos are, in their own way, willing and able to mesh with that fabric, while also changing it 2/
Law and order, immigration restrictionism, economic populism, things that historically have appealed to mostly white Middle America seem to appeal to Latinos now 3/
Read 11 tweets
7 Sep
Broke: hispanics are natural conservatives

Bespoke: about a third of hispanics are socially conservative-economically populist and aligned with working-class whites, therefore would support policies the Heritage Foundation would find "sOcIaLiSt." Demographics are destiny😏
By which I mean immigration restrictionism and pro labor policies, rather than the corporate bootlicking Heritage does so well
This tweet is territory I generally do not trod for fear of being cringe, but I think this actually makes sense: contemporary conservatism à la Heritage Foundation will be undone by its dumb contradictions one way or another
Read 4 tweets
7 Sep
There are two ways to look at the administration's sudden taking up arms against anti-white things like the 1619 Project: this is a sincere thing that occurred to them just now, or it's electioneering aimed at shoring up support among white voters 1/
Considering that 1619 and anti-white theory has been around for a while and never blipped on the administration's radar until now, it's likely the latter 2/
I'm not saying this up to denigrate the efforts of the right and people like Christopher Rufo or to black pill, but to remind us that there is a chance none of this sticks past November if *we* don't make it stick 3/
Read 10 tweets
5 Sep
On the same day that the White House announces a half-ass initiative to "fight" anti-white critical race theory in the fedgov, DHS declares "white supremacy" the biggest terror threat we face after months of BLM/antifa rioting. politico.com/news/2020/09/0…
"The cut-off date for information analyzed in the earliest draft is August 3, 2020, while the cut-off date for the next two is August 27."
This is either another example of the total disconnect between what the administration says and what it actually does, or it shows the initiative against critical race theory is red meat electioneering
Read 9 tweets
4 Sep
Implicit in the GOP/conservative "let's be the real anti-racist party" line is that there are not enough nonwhites who support things like law and order, therefore, we need to soften our message... which is... well 1/
As a result, the GOP/conservatives have assimilated and reinforced much of the Democrat/left moral framework, myths, and idols -- they just claim to understand them better, "we can deliver on these things better than them" 2/
So rather than going hard on nationalism, laborism, and social conservatism, we have this scattershot approach that ultimately talks tough but our policy sucks. We hit with kid gloves and talk a big game 3/
Read 13 tweets
3 Sep
It's a good thing we addressed the immigration issue rather than focusing on stupid things for four years, like pushing criminal justice reform and creating a pipeline between Koch Industries and the White House

Wait, we did spend four years doing that?
Did we at least end birthright citizenship after three or four threats to do so? No? We are letting murderers and rapists get early for release from federal prison by having them groom dogs instead?
Wait, you mean to say that all the mainstream MAGA people pushed hard for criminal justice reform over seriously tackling immigration? foxnews.com/opinion/the-fi…
Read 4 tweets

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