What if France and Spain aren't seeing deaths because they're all nicely topped up with Vit D? If that could be proved it would have important implications for freedom come summer.
Nice review of evidence here thelancet.com/journals/landi…
And here was a very successful trial of supplementation on the in patient population ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/P…

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More from @ClareCraigPath

19 Sep
I have been asked for more layman’s explanations of this problem to help people understand and send to MPs. So this is my best shot THREAD 1/8
No test is perfect. COVID testing comes close but is not perfect either. There will always be a (small) proportion of tests that will test positive regardless. This is the false positive rate. 2/8
Let’s say it is 1% (as Matt Hancock and SAGE have estimated). This means 1% of every test will be false positives. It does not mean 1% of positive tests will be wrong. 3/8
Read 9 tweets
11 Sep
SAGE is using a figure of 1% false positive results. I think it is a little lower ~0.8% for Pillar 2. False positives are a function of the population tested as well as imperfect testing. (Nothing is perfect).

Government published guidance on Mon 7th to attempt to address the problem of false positive results. 2/24 gov.uk/government/pub…
The jury is out on how big a problem this is but, having analysed the data I think it accounts for almost all results through the summer 3/24
Read 25 tweets

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