1) Central banks believing they can escape a massive debt problem by exponentially adding more debt makes me think of this quote from Mises - "There is no means of avoiding the final collapse of a boom brought about by credit expansion......
2) ....The alternative is only whether the crisis should come sooner as the result of voluntary abandonment of further credit expansion, or later as a final and total catastrophe of the currency system involved."
3) PS - that debt (BEFORE Covid) was $250 trillion on a global economy of $80 trillion, with $185 trillion of that $250 trillion of debt being added in the last 20 years. And that's looking backwards....adding at an exponentially faster rate now.
4) The unwind in whatever form it takes is going to be brutal.
5) Only two choices now - all around the world. Default through a deflationary depression (including banking system collapse) or default through hyperinflation.
7) Be safe out there - and please be kind. People are hurting and it's going to get much worse. Most of what is happening is not because of bad people (no matter what you think) but because of an economic system trying to fight gravity and catching all of us in its vortex.
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The gap between natural deflation and forced inflation is the greatest wealth transfer in history. Let’s unpack why this not only impacts your wallet — but your future. 🧵
Technology is naturally deflationary. It lowers costs and increases productivity. Imagine if your smartphone got 10% cheaper every year. That’s the reality tech wants to create, but our monetary system won’t allow it.
Central banks target inflation to keep a debt-based system afloat. They print money, essentially taxing your future to sustain today’s economy. This forces inflation, making your purchasing power shrink over time.
🧵 The cost of everything technology touches is falling toward zero. That's not just a catchy phrase—it's an economic reality, and it has profound implications for our future. Let's explore why this matters.👇
Whether it's communication, information, or manufacturing, technology reduces costs by increasing efficiency. Remember when a long-distance call cost a fortune? Now it's free. The same deflationary trend is happening across industries.
Why? Technology is naturally deflationary. It lowers the marginal cost of production. As AI and robotics advance, this trend accelerates. Think about how software updates improve your phone over time without additional costs.
🧵 The cost of everything technology touches is falling toward zero. Yet, we're told prices should rise. Why? Let's dig into the disconnect between tech-driven deflation and our inflationary monetary system. 👇
Technology is naturally deflationary. Think about it: computers, software, and AI continually push costs down. Moore's Law is a perfect example. More for less. But what happens when this trend meets our current economic model?
Our fiat monetary system demands inflation to sustain itself. Central banks aim for ~2% inflation to keep the debt machine running. But this fights against tech's deflationary force, creating a tension that impacts us all.
1) Almost everyone on the planet seems to be “using/training” AI to make themselves more efficient without realizing that the improvement comes at the expense of their long term income.
And…..
2) While at the same time, advocating/reinforcing a monetary/political system that pushes prices higher through manipulated money.
And…
3) While failing to see the consequences of those 2 diametrically opposed paths….or how the path can’t be solved from within the system creating the problem.
1) Follow the money - It leads you to all sorts of people who will be "blinded" by it, or sacrifice their integrity to get it.
2) Counterparty risk......"the probability that the other party in an investment, credit, or trading transaction may not fulfill its part of the deal and may default on the contractual obligations" is very REAL!
3) Far bigger than FTX and "crypto"...... our entire financial system (ie - everything) relies on both part 1 and part 2 of this thread.....and only pretends it is solvent through the manipulation of money.
A 🧵 1) El Salvador has reaffirmed to me what I have learned from my travels throughout the world.
The vast majority of people in this world are beautiful people.
With similar hopes and dreams for a better life for themselves and their families, trying their best to achieve it
2) Media and governments, through a biased lens of manipulation, label these people as a group - and we then fall for it. In doing so, we fail to see the individual people on the other side.
In El Salvador, I, myself almost fell into the trap worrying about the gangs and crime
3) Instead, I found the most amazing people, volcanoes, beaches, and hidden gems,
Still early in a transition, but wildly exciting.
As @nayibbukele states it, A place you want to be.