Luke Cooper Profile picture
Sep 16, 2020 8 tweets 2 min read Read on X
Rather than arguing about whether Labour advocated a soft Brexit (hard to see how it did given its rejection of FoM till Sept 2019), it's more useful to think about what arrangement we'd like in the future. Although I would have once said join EEA, don't think that would work now
The Tory aim of getting out of EU state aid rules is the right policy pursued for the wrong reasons. As the global economy changes, as deglobalisation takes hold, markets are more dependent on the state. State aid is crucial in this context but can easily become corporate welfare
Against the Tory crony capitalist model, a socialist or social democratic model of state aid should make it provisional on pursuing public goods - such as full employment, ecological sustainability, and industrial development.
While this isn't a million miles away from the EU system of 'exemptions', it's hard to justify choosing to be part of a system that you don't have any say over when you could pursue a negotiated position on regulatory alignment.
This wouldn't be a million miles away from the Swiss model of bilateral agreements. Interestingly, the EU anticipated the Swiss model would be a problem for the Brexit negotiations so pursued tougher institutionalisation of state subsidy rules in its last round of negotiation
On trade you'd likewise need some kind of bespoke arrangement, which replicated elements of the EU-Turkey deal granting customs free access to EU but tried to avoid the problem that Turkey doesn't benefit from EU access to other markets politico.eu/article/turkey…
We should keep FoM with the EU - by contrast a very simple policy, that is in everyone's interest. You could say the same about buying into other programmes like Horizon, Erasmus.
Like Switizerland, our relationship with the EU will be defined by permanent negotiations - so they'll never be over, Brexit will go on forever. It's never "done". And these policy changes could all go through the Joint Committee created by the Withdrawal Agreement.

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More from @lukecooper100

Apr 18
Interesting in various ways:

1. Implicitly admits UK is not a “normal third country” and has leverage to negotiate special deals
2. ⁠EU takes an initiative to pursue integration with U.K. rather than saying “ball is in London’s court”.
3. ⁠Shows they expect new U.K. govt soon and trying to anticipate quick potential deals. Especially those that can be signed prior to the German elections Sept 2025.
4. This was undertaken by the European Commission due to pressure from Germany and the perceived risk that states could pursue their own bilateral deals with a new U.K. government.
Read 4 tweets
Dec 1, 2022
I have a new report out for @Peace_Rep_,'Market economics in an all-out-war? Assessing economic and political risks to the Ukrainian war effort'. It offers an unfortunately negative assessment of Ukrainian govt economic policy in its war of resistance 🧵/1
peacerep.org/publication/ma…
Russian attacks on civilian infrastructure strike at where Ukraine is weakest - on the home front - due to the severe economic downturn. About 1 in 2 Ukrainians require emergency financial assistance to meet basic needs (IOM data) and unemployment is around 28% /2
Sectoral impacts from the war are, however, uneven and heavily related to the security situation eg steel badly hit, mining and drilling less so. There are lot of examples of resilience in the economy, from the IT sector to services. But the country is in a severe recession. /3
Read 10 tweets
Sep 24, 2021
I assume this wasn’t the vibe the leader of the opposition was going for but felt I had to point out the parallels between the Starmer pamphlet and Xi Jinping Thought. A “spot the difference” thread...
“The road ahead will be long. The journey will not always be simple. But the choices are clear and the prizes at the end great.”

“There is a bright future for our country, but reaching it will not be easy. We cannot accomplish our goal with one single effort...”
“The future will belong to those who do not just mitigate against change but grasp the opportunities it provides.”

“The more beautiful the future, the harder we must work for it.”
Read 8 tweets
May 28, 2021
Viktor Orbán will be repeatedly referred to as a 'populist' in the UK media today. This description is not technically wrong, but on it's own it's misleading. His populism is simply an adjunct of his racism, authoritarianism and ethnic nationalism.

So who is he? A thread
He's anti-Semitic. His govt have led a high profile hate campaign against George Soros. Eg see his speech in 2018 election: "We must speak frankly and unequivocally about the future that is intended for us in... in the alchemical workshop of George Soros." miniszterelnok.hu/prime-minister…
His speech advanced the classic anti-Semitic trope: the Jews and the cosmopolitan elite want to flood the country with Muslims. It was full of Islamophobic rhetoric and imagery, eg 👇 miniszterelnok.hu/prime-minister…
Read 15 tweets
Apr 25, 2021
I've written a new report on the Brexit deal for @Another_Europe, picked up in today's Observer with a nice plug from the awesome @NadiaWhittomeMP.

Here's a 🧵 with some of the deets /1
theguardian.com/politics/2021/…
The movement of regulatory powers to the UK is mostly pointless because outside of agriculture (where change has been signalled) and immigration (where change is substantial) in most areas the UK isn't intending to use its new 'powers'. /2 anothereurope.org/reformEUdeal.p…
The UK has won a largely nominal ability to deregulate as the level playing field protections mean that the tariff implications of deregulating in these defined areas make it pretty unlikely to ever happen /3 anothereurope.org/reformEUdeal.p…
Read 9 tweets
Dec 28, 2020
The Scottish LP seem to think it’s sensible to hammer the SNP for voting against a deal they don’t agree with. And their voters oppose.

The grounds? The “threat” of no deal. It suits some ppl to present the vote in Parliament as a deal versus no deal choice but it’s not true /1
With the U.K. and EU agreeing a deal, the only way to get to a “no deal” would be to replace the U.K. govt with one committed to it.

Why? Parliament has extremely limited power in relation to trade deals and international treaties more broadly /2
Tomorrow the govt will publish their proposed legislation on the deal. There are various options (see below), but it will prob be a short enabling act that provides ministers with more powers to take executive action to implement the deal - not a yes/no vote on the deal as such/3
Read 12 tweets

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