ANALYSIS THREAD - latest evidence

European #Covid19 cases are rising, but whatever is happening we must not forget our joined-up thinking:

National lockdowns are medieval, unscientific, counter productive & politically amateur

Don’t panic.

Here’s why:
Infection rates across Europe *appear* to be rising

Wider testing plus easing restrictions may have contributed to this

SO, that’s *not necessarily* bad news, because death rates & death tolls are still falling while immunity naturally rises among young

ft.com/content/c011e2…
Dont panic:

a) like other viruses, #Covid19 *appears* to get weaker the more it spreads (this is an old virus survival mechanism trick, because killing the host too early means it can’t jump to others) reuters.com/article/us-hea…
b) the spread is among the young, so as long as we shield the vulnerable & test properly, we now *know* it hardly kills the young & we now know what to expect

BUT, this spread is most likely to occur *because* of locking down (being indoors not outdoors)
forbes.com/sites/rachelsa…
Growing evidence suggests that being indoors (lockdown) helps spread the virus more than being outdoors & socially distant

businessinsider.com/risk-of-corona…
As we now see, countries that imposed national lockdowns merely suppressed the virus, making this 2nd case round inevitable until a vaccine or natural herd immunity is realised.

Disastrously, these nations also destroyed their economies (yes, UK too)

thetimes.co.uk/article/top-be…
Whereas Sweden *never* had a national lockdown. They combined social distancing & shielding the vulnerable.

S.Korea also never had national lockdown, only hotspot lockdowns & mass testing

Crucially, Sweden’s economy was not shut down
thetimes.co.uk/article/swedes…
PS: higher excess deaths in Sweden explained by low excess flu deaths year prior (“dry timber” phenomenon: would have sadly died year before, except it was a weak flu year)
Now, deaths plummeting along EU average, despite no lockdown

source: @FatEmperor
Manaus in Brazil was the same, probably by chance. Either way, their deaths were severely front-loaded, causing short-sighted derision & fear globally.

Now, their deaths have plummeted, so far with no sign of returning despite rising cases globally

thetimes.co.uk/article/manaus…
In fact, as you can see via a *climate for climate* comparison, even outside of just Manaus, Brazil (no lockdown) is fairing slightly better on case deaths than Peru (was locked down)

source: @FatEmperor
This appears to be a pattern globally:

“The global “case fatality rate” — total deaths as a proportion of confirmed cases — has fallen by half over the past three months to below 0.04 as of Monday.”

ft.com/content/c011e2…
As predicted, countries with no lockdown witnessed a front-loading of inevitable deaths that tapered out & then started to fall faster than countries that delayed their death curve by flattening it (making it thinner & longer, rather than fatter &higher)

Lockdown countries *initially* had an excuse for prolonging #Covid19 deaths like this, mainly NHS capacity & PPE supply-side concerns

These issues *no longer exist*, UK’s emergency Nightingale field hospitals never hit capacity & *all* 5 permanently shut
bmj.com/content/369/bm…
In fact:

So low was demand for these 5 emergency Nightingale field hospitals that the ones in Birmingham & Harrogate didn’t even treat a single patient!

Not. One. Patient.

bmj.com/content/369/bm…
As we warned, this was never a question of saving lives VS economy. Tanking the economy was always going to cost lives

nature.com/articles/s4159…
And crucially, class tension (economic & racial) was caused by shutting down, with minorities converted overnight into a servant class for metropolitan elite

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Is there any wonder that racial tension blew up during lockdown? As we’re so many other ethnic minorities:

Disproportionately working

Disproportionately searched by police

Disproportionately fined

Disproportionately died

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-englan…
It’s easy to ignore this because so much has happened since, but remember that George Floyd was stopped by police during lockdown, while we were still not allowed out much.

It should have been impossible to forget this, though forgotten it we have
bbc.com/news/uk-englan…
Elite classes were all paid furlough while the working classes & ethnic minorities became servants - and many will not tolerate people doing that to them again while the taxes of the vulnerable working service sector pay for your elite furlough in the park
And we haven’t even got to the children who will die from lockdown caused economic hardship yet:
reuters.com/article/us-hea…
Or even to country collapse (with all its related national security nightmares) as foreign remittances froze due to Covid:
foreignpolicy.com/2020/07/28/the…
As should be clear by now it is highly damaging & politically amateur to limit this debate only to effects of Covid alone, or for “scientists” alone. It is not scientists’ job to think through policy. Leave that to politicians
nature.com/articles/s4156…
Scientists are not *policy* experts & trying to “stop” covid has other severe unintended consequences (domestic abuse up, cancer consistent but referrals down, poverty & racism)
bbc.com/news/av/world-…
So what makes sense is a proper testing regime combined with only hotspot lockdowns & shielding the vulnerable

UK Rule of 6 is arbitrary

National lockdowns are politically amateur & classist

They are also institutionally racist, by correlation
bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-…
Finally, Europe-wide average excess deaths in 2020 are 40K more than excess flu deaths 2018 (one death is too many but action can harm as many as inaction)
source: @FatEmperor

Less rabbit-hole style lockdown hysteria & more joined-up thinking please 🙏🏽
The entire thread above is available in one place, via my Facebook page facebook.com/13577528315641…

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More from @MaajidNawaz

22 Sep
READ:
Sweden *may* be beating coronavirus with herd immunity:

“In Britain there are 69 cases per 100,000 people compared to just 28 for every 100,000 in Sweden which did not implement stringent lockdown measures this spring”

thetimes.co.uk/article/sweden…
Read 4 tweets
16 Sep
Sweden:

Never had a blanket national lockdown

Never imposed mandatory national masks

Falling case rate

Let’s have less hysteria please
If you’re going to reply to this tweet, please try not to strawman it

The only thing this tweet requests you to do is keep an open mind, and not be hysterical

Beyond that, I’ll give you one for free:

*Blanket* national #Covid19 lockdowns are a medieval idea deserving ridicule
Read 4 tweets
12 Sep
THREAD, please READ to the end:

Enough whinging please. It’s time for unity

Remainers, we must stop becoming everything we claim to oppose

1) Brexit is a policy error, not a universal human rights crime

2) Brexiters are as sincere as Remainers & love the UK as much as we do
3) Confusing the above upends our moral framework, creating a world in which Trump is boycotted by former Labour leader @jeremycorbyn, while genocidal dictator Xi Jinping was hugged by him
4) We Remainers lost Brexit. Constitutionally, PM Johnson has an 80 seat majority and a mandate. We must now get over it & work to unify the country around a new Post-Brexit Remainer vision, like a Remainer plan B
Read 8 tweets
9 Sep
hollywood minstrel performance update:

pretence of diversity on-screen, and genocide-proximity off it

@Disney’s “mulan” issued credits to thank security services in china for allowing filming on uyghur land, while 2m of them were in concentration camps

#BoycottMulan

#TAGG 🧿
أيتها الأمة الإسلامية

تنسب ديزني على وجه التحديد الفضل إلى أجهزة الأمن الصينية في شينجيانغ في نهاية “مولان” للسماح لهم بالتصوير في منطقة الأويغور بينما احتجزت الأجهزة الأمنية نفسها مليوني إيغور في معسكرات الاعتقال

ديزني قريبة من الإبادة الجماعية

#BoycottMulan

#TAGG 🧿 Image
Read 5 tweets
4 Sep
WATCH:
If you disagree with @jk_rowling’s stance on transwomen, then logically you cannot object to white women self-identifying as black

Either both cases are acceptable or neither are. Or...we need to strike the exact same compromise on both.
Listen to the compromise I reach:
No, this isn’t whatabouttery 🤦🏽‍♂️

I ask you why you don’t like apples, you say “but Adam doesn’t like apples either” = whatabouttery.

I ask you why you say you don’t like apples when I offer you some, yet you accept apples whenever Adam offers you some = pointing out hypocrisy.
Left wing hypocrisy:

Typical lefty white male who’s decided that I (a liberal brown survivor of multiple incidents of violent racism by people who looked like him) is indulging “racism” simply for asking how it’s consistent to advocate for self-ID in gender, but not ethnicity 🤦🏽‍♂️ Image
Read 5 tweets
1 Sep
Blackshirts scream at, chase & petrify a little girl with her father

The scene of her running away, even from her own father at the end, is heartbreaking

I no longer care for pretence

This fascist mob must be stopped at all cost

They are a sickness

Gaslighting, fascist’s question:

“Why did he bring his child out on the street like this?”

Answer:
Damn fascist. Nothing -absolutely nothing- excuses scaring a child in this way
Makes little difference to what’s there for us all to see in the video regardless, but still - I care for facts: https://t.co/bs1CtSGdF1
Read 5 tweets

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