#NJ #COVID19 LTC update ahead of Murphy's announcement of how he's "fixing" this problem. Since Mid-July, deaths in LTC's have gotten progressively worse as a total percent of deaths, having spent most of August above 70% of all deaths. 1/
No doubt, some of this is related to timing, as all the deaths being reported in the last 2 months, only about 30-40% are "new", with the rest being harvested from death certificate matching in the past. 2/
The final piece is probables. There's ~1800 people dead who are "Probably Covid", but we have no feel for whether these are mostly LTC cases, or not. If most are, then the LTC situation in #NJ was even worse than being reported, as there /3
* As there would then be ~8800 LTC deaths and 7200 Non LTC deaths (roughly 55% of all deaths).

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More from @foogatwo

26 Aug
#NJ #COVID19 For those who have followed my work, one of the things I've been harping on lately is the idea of False positives. With the most recent issues with the NFL and 77 false positives, I decided to take a look at it a little more closely. /1

nfl.com/news/all-77-fa….
After having a chance to look it over, and some awesome folks sharing what they know, I landed on the calculator found here, which I tweeted about yesterday. In essence, this allows us to get some good look into the magnitude of false positives in #NJ /2

vassarstats.net/clin2.html
There has been some study work on his concept, which you can find here. Essentially, you can pick any value for false/negative rates, so I build a way to change it in the future if necessary. This reduces to 75% sensitivity and 99.2 specificity /3 medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Read 8 tweets
16 Aug
#NJ #Covid19 Case update for Sunday, 8/16. Will a reporter PLEASE bring this up. Here's what happened, on Aug 13th/14th, the state reported 699 and 585 cases, respectively. If you need more background, see my TL for details. They dumped ~400 cases from Bergen and #Unknown, NJ /1 ImageImageImageImage
Over the last two days, they have deleted over 153 of these cases, which means they essentially have inflated Rt for the next 7 days, pumped up "new" cases, then retracted them with no explanation. /2 Image
Further, they have deleted over 210 cases from June and earlier in just the last 2 days, again, without an explanation. This undoubtedly had an impact on previous Rt calculations up until this point, which LOCKED US DOWN. . What on earth is going on in the state of NJ data?? /3
Read 4 tweets
13 Aug
What seems to be now a weekly event with the @NJDeptofHealth, #NJ reported 699 new cases during the virtual update today. This felt like an outlier, and once again I call into question the data integrity issues that the state routinely finds itself in /1

First, I track the cases, hospitaliz., and deaths each day to see when the illnesses of these "new" events occurred. At first glance, it was clear something was amiss in today's data update. Since 7/31 when illness onset data collection began I've yet to see a # this high /2
One of the neat things about the new tab is you can see totals over periods of time. For example, here is the total unknown assigned cases over the entire pandemic up through Aug 3rd. There was only 615 cases that did not counties assigned (What are these?) 3/
Read 9 tweets
5 Aug
Sorry ahead of time for the data dump, but wanted to get an update out there. #NJ #COVID19 Dashboard was updated (7/31) to include Illness Onset data for Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths. I wanted to start tracking this to see when Illness onset was for these 3 metrics /1
As usual, by going through this exercise, I was surprised at a few things:
1) Cases, Hospitalizations and Deaths are very aged. Some are being added today that occurred back in Feb.
2) All data that is reported is "net".
3) Aged CHD do not net out. So some are really old /2
(as opposed to Adds and Subtracts due to duplicates, date changes, etc)
4) There's confirmed illnesses back mid February despite NJ testing unavailable til Mid-march, when they would no longer be infectious.

Anyway, here's the data for CHD, there's 3 graphs for each. 3/
Read 14 tweets
4 Aug
Thanks to some friends, I now have a functioning Rt model for #NJ #COVID19 that matches up pretty well with what the state has been providing. While going through the process, I uncovered some interesting details that I'm sure our Gov. and his team has been keeping a lid on 1/ Image
The first thing I noticed is that prior to the recent increase, the curve supplied by the NJDOH appeared to be raw data. Note how the curve has jagged edges, quick changes in direction, etc. This curve does not behave like an averaged dataset. But, since ~7/25, this changed 2/ Image
Now, the data is smoother, and as of Jul 29th, a new statement appears in the footer which states, paraphrasing: "Based on the 7-day trailing average of daily Rt values, to smooth out artificial fluctuations such as batching of lab reporting." This has caused integrity issues 3/
Read 8 tweets
3 Aug
Been working on this for a few days: As those in #NJ are aware, the #NJDOH started showing Illness Onset curves for Cases, Hospitalizations, and Deaths. By tracking these DoD, you can begin to see where "New Cases", "New Deaths" and "New Hospitalizations" are occuring 1/
As @kurtsiegelin has been reporting, the Total cases Today represents Newly added cases - Modifications. Mods could be out of states, duplications, etc. Its amazing that the state of NJ is calling 10% of these cases "new", despite the illness occurring back before May. 2/
20% of these cases started with an illness occurring back before June. The first graph is for Cases. I have others for Deaths, which are shown here. Note that in the 8/2 Report, a "new death" was reported where the illness began 2/15, a month before testing in NJ (WTF?) 3/
Read 6 tweets

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