Homeopathy deaths. When science abandons reason.
To explain, we have a new approach to calculating excess mortality in South Africa. Covid deaths are now, by definition, excess deaths. If subtracting reported Covid deaths from estimated excess deaths results in a number below the ave. death baseline, we reduce the baseline!
To explain further, we have an embarrassed modeller on the team calculating excess deaths.
How far were our modellers out? This far:
The politics of Covid have been a disaster, but we must never for get that a failure of medical science was a root cause of the former.

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More from @NickHudsonCT

25 Sep
Yesterday’s interview of Harvard & Standford professors of medicine @MartinKulldorff, Jay Battacharya & @MLevitt_NP2013 is the sanest appraisal of the C-19 situation I've heard. I know many won’t have 2 hours to take it all in, so here’s a summary.

I’ve paraphrased comments and Q&A responses and organized them under six headings:


Runaway exponential growth hasn't happened anywhere. With the possible exception of Iran, the epidemic has exhibited marked consistencies. The virus is "behaving well", but people have been less consistent than the virus.

Read 43 tweets
23 Sep
Using its now classic, scientifically inept “there is no evidence that” formulation, the @WHO continues to conduct a PR campaign to entrench a deadly overreaction. It is actively working to harm people. Image
A useful heuristic when regarding their claims made under this formulation is to replace “there is no evidence that” with “the best explanation is that”. That’s how bad this is.
Try it with the above.
Read 4 tweets
20 Sep
I was disturbed to receive this paper last night, dating back to March. More recent work by @federicolois and @LDjaparidze reaches similar conclusions. Why was this suppressed? 1/3

This is modelling work finding that mitigation strategies that aren’t sharply age-differentiated will cost lives. This should make it easier to accept @Pandata19’s empirical findings that lockdown benefits cannot be detected, and our long-standing policy recommendations. 2/3
Lockdown contradicts pre-Covid science, the Covid data, and now the work of modellers prepared to acknowledge what was obvious from the start—that with mortality risk being 1000 times greater for the old than the young, we needed a differentiated, non-coercive approach. 3/3
Read 4 tweets
12 Sep
“Data driven curve fitting is a good tool for real time decision making, but also provides a good framework for modelers to check their model assumptions (sanity checks) and keep models grounded to the cold hard facts.” This was the key point missed by S Africa’s modelling teams.
We are witnessing a process of rationalisation by those teams. Most will cite the SAMRC excess mortality study in ways that the SAMRC itself says they shouldn’t, jumping to conclusions because it suits them to do so, and ignoring the massive error margins in that analysis.
They will quietly ignore the inescapable fact that their healthcare resource projections, the central point of their models, were out by an order of magnitude and then some, and that their forecast timing of the epidemic was out to the point of absurdity.
Read 8 tweets
7 Sep
Infections everywhere are a massive multiple of confirmed cases, as demonstrated by every seroprevalence study yet, and more so by t-cell reactivity investigations. Most of the excess over confirmed cases seems to comprise asymptomatic infections. 1/4
Given this, can anybody present to me a steel man rationale for contact tracing, specifying whether the operating assumption is that the asymptomatic are material transmitters? 2/4
Bonus points will be given for providing a steel man version of the universal mask mandate thesis, using assumptions consistent with the contact tracing thesis. 3/4
Read 5 tweets
2 Sep
Reflecting upon an interaction with TeamLockdown/ModellerBedlam yesterday.

The doubling down looks permanent. They couldn’t have been more wrong about, well, everything. The only rebuttals they have are claims to authority coupled with ad hominem attacks, mob style. 1/7
Based on audience comments afterwards, this approach does them no good, and the message is sinking in regarding the harm that they’ve done. As that dawns on them the derangement becomes palpable. 2/7
The authoritarian culture they come from and that got them into this trouble in the first place is one where neither revision nor apology is acceptable and they impute that culture onto everyone else. This psychology traps them on a slide into the abyss. 3/7
Read 7 tweets

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