1/ A thread on $TSLA & $NKLA. Why one scam skates free of regulatory scrutiny while the other one comes under heavy governmental fire.

And why Tesla stock now soars higher than ever.

I'll outline two explanations, both of which were suggested to me by a friend.
2/ First, there can be only One True Church. One True Religion. One True Savior. The heretics must be stamped out. Read about how the Catholics dealt with Arianism; how Magisterial Protestants treated Anabaptists; how Sunnis handle Shiites (& vice versa). So many examples.
3/ Or, in the ideological sphere, where the warring factions seem to share most views, but attempt to exterminate each other: Stalinists v. Trotskyites; Bolsheviks v. Mensheviks. Many other examples.
4/ $TSLA is the One True Church. Elon is the One True Savior. The heretics - erecting their revival tents on the Twitter prairie & preaching (or tweeting) to the masses - must be viciously eradicated.

The false church is Nikola. The false god is Trevor Milton.
5/ The True Believers in the Church of Elon have arisen in fury to condemn the sinful abominations & heretical desecrations of $NKLA & @nikolatrevor. With, of course, the Elder Deacons of the Church of Elon leading the way.
6/ Now, the second explanation. Elon as Master Magician.
7/ Has Elon told massive whoppers? Every bit, or bigger than those said to have been told by Trevor?

Of course he has. And many more of them. 500k per year by last year. Battery swapping. Renewable-powered Superchargers & factories. Robotaxis...
8/ Some of Elon's whoppers are downright dangerous. Unbridled faith in Autopilot is a killer, SUA is a killer, yet gaslighting Elon boasts of Tesla safety.
9/ And yet, Elon enjoys immunity from all this. The SEC finally tucked tail & slinked away. The NHTSA has not touched him. The DOJ appears toothless. The FTC averts its eyes.

Meanwhile, in almost no time, the SEC & DOJ are all over $NKLA.
10/ Was the Hindenburg Research report a $TSLA plant? And who is @InsiderNikola?

It really doesn't matter. The long knives are now out for Trevor & Nikola. Perhaps $GM can save Nikola, but it looks as if Trevor is in for a rough ride.
11/ The point is this: committing fraud is harder than it looks. Telling whoppers, then doubling down on them, requires true talent.

The great fraudsters, like the great athletes, make it look easy. But it's not easy. It requires endless practice & rare natural ability.
12/ Elon has shown himself to be the Michael Jordan of New Age Silicon Valley fraud. The hedge funds, the momo traders, the analysts: they see this. They respect this. They love this.
13/ As @TESLAcharts has famously said, "Fraud creates alpha."

There are plenty of journeymen (& journeywomen) fraudsters. And there are a few who play the game at a very high level.
14/ But the very greatest Charlatan, the most skilled liar, the most talented fraudster of our day? Why, there's just no doubt about how that is.

So, there's a $TSLA long thesis for you.

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More from @montana_skeptic

9 Sep
1/ A thread on the crooked RiverBend Agreement between $tsla & New York State, the subject of my latest article. cc: @NYSComptroller, @NYGovCuomo, & @EmpireStateDev.

Is the latest amendment incompetence or outright corruption? You decide.

2/ In February, @NYSComptroller sent @EmpireStateDev a copy of its draft audit report on the RiverBend project. Under the RiverBend Agreement, Silevo, Inc. (then a SolarCity subsidiary, and now a $tsla subsidiary) was to receive $750 million of factory & equipment in Buffalo.
3/ What was Silevo to do with that equipment? Why, according to @NYGovCuomo, to change the world. To revolutionize renewable energy. To manufacture in Buffalo its miraculous solar panels using the astonishing Triex technology (which, of course, soon proved to be a complete bust).
Read 19 tweets
25 Aug
1/ I wrote (ok, transcribed dictation from @SeekingAlpha's MaxedOutMama) an article recently about $TSLA in China, emphasizing failure to comply with FASB's ASC 280 regarding segment reporting.
2/ Among the approximately 900 comments, there were a precious few intelligent ones. Here is one of them:
3/ MaxedOutMama handled the response. Here's the link, but if this is paywalled, I'm about to screenshot the text:
Read 10 tweets
13 Aug
1/ Thread on what would appear to be $tsla & @elonmusk criminal behavior. Links to Nevada law from a friend.
2/ First, accusing (and using your "communications" executives to assist) Martin Tripp of being a saboteur, when you knew it was false:
3/ Next, wiretapping someone else's personal phone in Nevada:
Read 4 tweets
21 Jul
1/ Spent some time this evening catching up on past issues of Grant's Interest Rate Observer (@GrantsPub). A few observations...
2/ The biweekly publications found their way to me late because of a change of mailing address. Yet, each one felt timely and fresh.
3/ Far and few are the financial publications that allow for such long-form writing. @GrantsPub is one. @ttmygh is another. I'm struggling to think of a third.
Read 16 tweets
29 Jun
1/ Short thread on $TSLA Q2 deliveries. People keep asking me for my estimate. I've said 75k, but explained I don't track the data carefully. However, the delivery number Tesla announces DOESN'T MATTER. Let me explain...
2/ Tesla's delivery numbers are manipulable, as its definition of deliveries has changed over time. Think "factory-gated" and "financially delivered". Plus, the huge & persistent A/R balance tells you something untoward is afoot.
3/ On top of all that, in the quarter-end delivery crush, double-counting can & does happen. We already see reports of customers who, having paid for their car, are now told it won't arrive until July.

But, far more important than all that...
Read 14 tweets
23 Jun
1/ Thread about the $TSLA Cybertruck. Bear with me, this is stream of consciousness, and it might become rather longish.
2/ The inspiration for this thread came from @TeslaTunnel. He (she?) has inspired me to follow Jane into the jungle & study the primates. Not just the oft-observed Elon's Flying Monkey species, but the less studied "Must Have Cybertruck" species.
3/ First, let's get a few key points out of the way:

First, the Cybertruck will cost far more than promised. Its specifications, except at $100K+, will be far less impressive than promised. That's the $TSLA MO.
Read 24 tweets

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