the ability of these "models" to miss by 10-100X without ending the careers of those who created them and those who used them to drive policy that was as needless as it was ruinous is the great scandal of 2020.
epidemics are not simple exponentials

they follow gompertz curves

literally anyone remotely familiar with real epidemiology could have told you this last year

how did so many "experts" and bureaucrats miss this simple fact?

demand answers

the society you save may be your own
more on gaming stats, manipulating data, and outright lying with numbers here:

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More from @boriquagato

25 Sep
per bloomberg, NY is in a "depression" of its own making.

it was not covid that did this. others have had it more recently and are not seeing such effects. this is the effect of policy, not pandemic.

a look at the unemployment rate in AZ vs NY is instructive. Image
being bloomberg, they, of course, get this half wrong and mistake "seasonality" and community immunity for "NY contained the virus this summer" and completely misread the epidemiology, but their points about the economic impact are much more on point.

bloomberg.com/opinion/articl…
this is going to be a VERY uneven recovery and the gap between the northeast states that are still locked down despite having long since burned out covid and other states that had later seasonality and fewer deaths and less lockdowns will be wide. Image
Read 6 tweets
25 Sep
life is about choices and choices are about costs and benefits, risks and rewards.

one of the big questions facing the US has been "should we open schools?"

much has been made of the risk to teachers. even if kids don't get it, teachers might.

do they?

let's get some data. Image
perhaps the best comp here is schools with full in person attendance vs schools that are fully remote.

the difference is minuscule. full in person (108 schools) showed 0.11% confirmed cov + in staff. fully remote (n=215) showed 0.08%.

the difference is 0.03%, 1 in 3,333.
that is functionally zero difference. there's no way it's statistically significant/discernable from the false positive rate on tests

and this is not "sick" or hospitalized or dead, it's just "tested positive" using a test we know to be over-sensitive.

Read 23 tweets
25 Sep
this is old data from may 15th, but i had not seen it.

it's absolutely stunning.

apparently, 5% of NYC, 420k people, fled from 3/1 to 5/1.

but it was highly concentrated. manhattan basically emptied.

40%+ of some neighborhoods left. Image
this leads me to a couple of interesting questions:

1. what role did this play in the spread of covid? NYC was the earliest hotspot and most of the flight was EARLY. it was right during peak infection.

were these covid johnny appleseeds spreading it all over the US? Image
2. could this literally mean that because so many people were not there that chunks of manhattan have actually NOT hit herd immunity?

did they reach it for 50-60% full but perhaps not for fully populated?

that would be wild.
Read 9 tweets
24 Sep
one of the amazing things about puerto rico is the way information and belief spreads through close knit social networks.

the current belief, spread by health officials in the newspapers and on TV, is that hospitals are full and in crisis and that we need to lockdown.

um... no. Image
there are currently 364 people in hospital on PR for covid.

this is down from a peak of 533 on 8/3. there are 3,002 open hospital rooms.

OK, but maybe ICU is the issue?

nope, 64, down from a peak of 80 on 8/11.

195 beds vacant. Image
and yet the health minister is shrieking in the press that we need to lock the entire island down and return to full, mandated shelter in place, possibly for months.

it's completely out of control.

gonzales has lost his mind.

primerahora.com/noticias/puert…
Read 10 tweets
24 Sep
yesterday, in response @RandPaul, fauci claimed there is no cov19 cross resistance from previous covid exposure.

he referred to an un-named paper

i am not sure, but believe this may be that paper. if so, then there is no basis for fauci's claim.

academic.oup.com/jid/advance-ar…
presuming this is the paper, all it shows is that IVIG, a treatment for immunocompromised patients derived from blood plasma, from past years does not contain specific IgG antibodies for covid-19.

this is both highly likely and mostly meaningless.

these are specific antibodies.
they are created in response to a specific pathogen. of course they are not there.

but it's also mostly irrelevant because that is not how cross resistance to covid 19 has worked.

it's been t-cell mediated.

so this paper is looking at the wrong thing.
Read 19 tweets
23 Sep
the extent of the dogmatic dishonesties of fauci to cover past mistakes/pretend that he was not a prime architect of disaster & needless harm is astounding.

here's my question: if NY/NJ has not hit herd immunity, then why did the floyd protects set of NO covid surge there?
they did in much of the rest of the US, but not in any of the places that had had a big surge. you can see it in the US aggregate data. deaths changed trend ~21 days after the protests, right when virology would predict it would.

but not in NY/NJ. 0 change in trend.
anthony is literally trying to argue that even though 40,000 person protests packed in like sardines caused no surge, it's keeping restaurants and schools closed that's protecting new york and it would be dangerous to open them.

pull my other leg.

it plays jingle bells.
Read 7 tweets

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