Spending the final weeks of the campaign chasing the non-college educated white vote is far more important than trying to win over non-white voters... (thread)
2016 turnout by racial group and (Trump's percentage)

College educated whites: 77% (48%)
Blacks: 59% (8%)
Non-college educated whites: 58% (66%)
Asians: 49% (27%)
Hispanics: 48% (28%)
Trump is expected to do significantly better among Hispanics, marginally for Asians, and only slightly for black Americans... while losing a large portion of college educated whites and some non-college educated whites
Let's say, Trump were to get

63% non-college educated whites (-3%)
44% college educated whites (-4%)
36% hispanics (+8%)
32% asians (+5%)
10% blacks (+2%)

That would result in a Biden landslide
You simply can't offset the losses of college educated whites with non-white voters. There aren't enough of them out there.

Trump can win 70% of the Latino vote and still lose the election.
Increasing the national turnout of non-college educated whites by 2 points from 58% to 60% or increasing Trump's percentage (w/o increased turnout) by 2 points is the same as trying to flip 8% of the black vote or flipping the Hispanic vote by 12%.
There's simply a lot more voters to work with..

There are also 42 million non-college educated whites who are not registered to votes, heavily concentrated in states with same day voter registration including Michigan, Minnesota, New Hampshire, Maine, and Wisconsin
To put it simply, this is pretty much what a electoral map would look like if Trump lost 3% of the white vote and gained 10% of the Latino, 8% of the Asian, and 5% of the black vote:
Here's what happens if Trump loses the college educated white vote by 3 points but wins 2% more of the non-college educated white vote and they turn out at 60% (instead of 58%) and 5% of latino, 4% of asian, 2% of the black vote than he did in 2016
There are more paths to the presidency by looking to register and turnout just 2-3% more of the working-class white vote than there are by trying to win 10% more of Hispanic or Asians... and there is no evidence he's winning much more than 10% of the black vote.
One last note: I'm not saying minority outreach is bad... it isn't and the GOP should be doing more of it.

But that's not how you get to 270... it may be how you get to 350, but not 270. That's with the non-college educated white voter.

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More from @RyanGirdusky

25 Sep
I want to point out the stupidity of the GOP/Kushner plan for 2020 by ignoring the working-class white vote and hoping to make marginal gains with non-whites.
Let's start with some baseline facts, according to exit polls in 2016:

Trump won college educated whites by 3 points, non-college educated whites by 37 points.

Clinton won Asians and Hispanics by 38 points and black voters by 81 points
Let's say in 2020,

Trump's support among college-educated (CE) whites has decreased significantly according to every poll and to a lesser degree among non-college educated (NCE) whites.

Let's say Biden wins CE whites by 5 points and Trump wins NCE by 33 pts.

Here's that map:
Read 7 tweets
23 Sep
So the video is brilliant b/c it’s fast moving, good graphics, and strong message.

However don’t be confused... this is a fundraising video, not an ad that plays on tv
Kim is probably a great girl but doesn’t have a snowballs chance in hell of winning.

The video appeals to many ppl but especially upper middle class retired Republicans who can donate. The ppl who make the ad and push it earn a percentage of those fundraising dollars
Millions of dollars move to these campaigns for these candidates who have a great bio and great ads.... but they’re not going to flip D+26 districts.

The tragedy is it’s money not going to swing districts or even slightly Democrat districts that could potentially flip
Read 4 tweets
15 Sep
(Survey USA poll in North Carolina) Will you have time to vote in November? (Republicans/Democrats)

100% Certain: 83/71
Almost Certain: 11/20
Not Certain: 1/3
Not Interested: 1/3
Will you have time to vote in November? (White/Black/Hispanic/Asian)

100% Certain: 83/60/62/71
Almost Certain: 10/29/12/19
Not Certain: 2/4/12/4
Not Interested: 2/4/12/3
Who are you voting for? (Trump/Biden)

Overall: 47/47
Men: 56/39
Women: 38/54
18-34: 43/51
65+: 51/47
White: 58/35
Black: 4/88
Hispanic: 42/48
Asian: 66/30
GOP: 92/4
Dem: 4/95
Indie: 42/42
100% Certain: 50/45
Almost Certain: 30/58
Read 5 tweets
13 Sep
Fox News released it's first poll of likely voters (Biden/Trump)

Overall: 51/46
Men: 46/52
Women: 56/41
White: 43/54
Black: 93/5
Hispanic: 57/41
White Women: 49/49
Non-white men: 73/25
Under 30: 64/33
Over 65+: 52/43
Veterans: 40/56
White w/ college: 44/53
My hot take on the poll: Probably under sampled non-college educated whites, but aside from that keep an eye on two numbers...

white women and non-white men. They're key to Trump or Biden's victory.
Read 7 tweets
9 Sep
You all know how I'm not exactly President of the Chad Wolf fan club... but this story garbage... (thread)
The leaks are coming from career officials at DHS. McAleenan allowed the career officials to create the assessments on Russia & white supremacy but it was never approved by the Office of Intelligence & Analysis. So they create reports that go nowhere and then leak them
I covered this last week in my newsletter. Spoke to several ppl at DHS.

These are bogus reports that media loves eating up and shoveling out to the public b/c everything must be a controversy.
Read 4 tweets
9 Sep
First, why the hell is Trump interviewing with Bob Woodward?

Secondly, there's nothing shocking in that tape. It's totally normal to play something down so they don't create a panic. Hell, Bush didn't leave a kindergarten classroom when he heard the country was under attack
This quite normal for politicians and the media to underplay a crisis as to not cause a panic. From my book (pg. 55), MSNBC's Ali Velshi use to examine the words he used in 2008 during production meetings to minimalize the severity of the collapsing market.
Lastly, I'm not undermining the coronavirus or how serious it can be some people nor am I making light of the 190k ppl who died... but estimates from the media had as many as 25% of the US population dying of COVID. I heard the 2 million number constantly from experts
Read 8 tweets

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