i've seen some people trashing kyle for this.

i think that's the wrong thing to do. he made a mistake and thought something was simpler than it was.

he realized he was wrong, learned from it, said sorry, and promised to do better.

what more could you ask of anyone?
what would you ask for yourself when next you get something wrong?

we all do it.

even cats.

nobody bats 1.000.

if you want a real culture of discourse and debate, you have to allow people to make mistakes and retract claims.
if you pigpile on them for it, you're just encouraging people to be dogmatic jerks.

why recant if it just invites attack?

haranguing those who change their position is the act of a partisan, not a seeker of truth.

which do you want to be?

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More from @boriquagato

18 Sep
i'd like to use sweden and illinois to tie several concepts together.

the two are similar size, density, and population.

illinois locked down and wore masks. sweden did not.

sweden counts covid deaths more aggressively. this should give advantage to IL.

they still lost. Image
governor pritzger's experiment in pseudoscience has yielded 17% more deaths per capita than sweden's adherence to longstanding pandemic guidelines.

we can use google mobility data to see the quantitative difference in their lockdowns.

IL locked down 3X has hard as sweden. Image
sweden was back to normal by mid april.

Illinois took until mid june.

neither showed any correlation whatsoever between lockdowns/reopening and deaths.

here we see sweden (who reports real day of death data) and their smooth, gompertz style curve Image
Read 16 tweets
17 Sep
OMG! cases in <insert EU country here> are exploding and are now as high/higher than march/april!

um, no. testing levels in these countries are 10-30X what they were in march and april

this is mostly a change in sample rate, not in disease prevalence

let's take a breath here Image
this is NOT a new pandemic. it's 90%+ data artifact.

let's take france:

peak 7 day MA for cases was 4537 on 4/1

it's currently 8648, 90% higher. but france was testing 0.25/1000 people on 4/1 vs 2.14 today.

at april sample rate, current cases would be 1010, 78% below 4/1. Image
so these apparent trend lines have the wrong slope in dramatic fashion.

it looks like up 90%, but it's really down 78%. this is not a small difference. it's the whole ballgame.

and this is validated by deaths.

4/8 peak in 7DMA was 975. today is 36, 96% lower. Image
Read 7 tweets
17 Sep
i have a thought:

move the line on qualified immunity.

if you sue a company, you can, under certain circumstances, pierce the corporate veil and go after the management directly. this generally requires evidence of willful malfeasance or fraud.

why should gov't be different?
what if, in the case of deliberate fraud or harm, you could sue not just the government, but the politician as well?

now THAT might get interesting.

i like this for a lot of reasons.

it puts serious skin in the game for politicians.
this would make them think twice about committing fraud and about throwing their weight around to use zoning or permitting or other forms of patronage/regulation to harm those they do not like

obviously, this needs to be calibrated, but i have seen it work quite well in business
Read 4 tweets
15 Sep
spain's current spike in cases is a data artifact.

mar peak has testing levels of 0.1-0.2/1000.

it's currently 1.9/1000 so the sample rate is 9-19X higher

so, 9000 cases today would have read as ~500-1000 at that sample rate

this new peak really only 5-10% as high as last one
perhaps even less.

and this shows up clearly in the deaths data.

it's about 3% of april levels.

spain has some wide climactic variance by region and a very hot south.

do they have distinct regional flu seasons like the US?

that may be a factor.
discussing cases without reference to the testing level can be extremely misleading.

you can see the same issue in the US:

Read 5 tweets
15 Sep
watching cuomo and murphy strut around like they saved the day on covid despite being the architects of truly worst on earth policy is like watching the kid who ate all his halloween candy the next day claim that any kid who still has some on nov 2nd eats too much sugar.
desantis and abbot had 1/3 the overall per capita deaths.

that's a massive win. they just also happened to have southern disease seasonality, so their peaks came later so andy and phil who had already had massive disasters had reached herd immunity.
they have used this to disingenuously claim that they outperformed. but any remotely dispassionate look at the data shows that they didn't. their response was a debacle and their per capita deaths counts are higher than any country on earth.

(peru has the top spot at 932/mm)
Read 6 tweets
15 Sep
one of the big debates right now on west coast fires is whether this is climate change or a forestry management issue.

for those claiming that this is climate change, i have a question:

then why does it stop cold at the canadian border?
i have already written on the issues with forestry management.

it's clear that piles of regulations to protect the fluffy butted warbler have left forests in dangerous condition.

and that forests are overcrowded, unhealthy, and packed with tinder and excess fuel.

it's true all up and down the west coast of the US, but it stops like a painter's stencil at the canadian border.

Read 9 tweets

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